I love this part of the preview season because now I start talking about contenders and dismissing pretenders.
One team a lot of people like this year is the Seattle Mariners. And why wouldn’t you? This team has everything you want. Great young pitching. A bona fide ace. A bona fide left handed power bat. And a bona fide right handed power bat.
And to me, the success of the Mariners starts with their starting pitching.
There is no shortage of it in this franchise. We all know about King Felix [Hernandez] and what a revelation Hisashi Iwakuma has been.
But after that, while promising, the Mariners rotation is quite the question mark. The three four starters I think will pan out, and that’s likely to be James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. I wrote in February I think James Paxton is in for a big time break out season. I won’t rehash that, but I encourage you to check it out.
As for Walker, I do think he has a nice year. I have seen a number of reputable baseball people tweet about how good Walker has been this spring. September 24 of last year, Walker gave us a glimpse of what could be a big time year for him. Going 8 innings, surrendering a single run on four hits, giving up just a run and striking out six, Walker certainly finished the year very strong. Additionally, three of his five starts last year, Walker went for six innings, and in another pitched into the sixth but was pulled because of a high pitch count.
All that to say, Walker is progressing into the highly regarded prospect he’s been and if he and Paxton can stay healthy, one through four, I think Seattle can be very good.
The fifth spot in the rotation to me is intriguing. A guy I like a lot, is Roenis Elias, who I too wrote about that could have a big year.
But a guy that is a sneaky candidate to J.A. Happ. Happ has been a disappointment in almost every stop he’s made. Now a veteran of the league, the once highly regarded lefty has yet to produce a sub-4 ERA. To me, though, what could help J.A. is moving to a more pitching friendly park. I will not say Happ is in for a big year of something crazy like 15 wins and a 3.2-whatever ERA, but as a fifth starter I think he could be a decent option.
Between Elias and Happ, the higher upside is clearly Elias, and while a significantly smaller sample size, the numbers still point to Elias as the guy that should take the job.
Offensively, the middle of the Mariners order is going to be lethal. Kyle Seager, who to me is the league’s best kept secret, and it’s not close, Robby Cano and Nelson Cruz give this offense legitimate pop. But if I may be so blunt, I have never seen an offense with so many questions get so much preseason respect.
Exhibit A: Austin Jackson.
Jackson is a truly gifted athlete. There is not a question about it. At 28, this guy has plenty left in the tank for the Mariners, but he such an up and down player, I don’t know how you can count on him to produce. Yes, he has had his fair share of great years. Since his .300/.377/.479 2012, what has this guy done? His encore in 2013 was not as good as 2012, but it was definitely solid. .272/.337/.412 is a great line in a Detroit lineup that featured the league’s MVP.
Playing about two-thirds of his year in Detroit last year, you’ll recall Jackson was one of the big pieces in the three-way trade involving ace David Price.
And I’ll give him a pass for hitting a low .229 in just 50 games in Seattle. That’s a tough transition for him, I don’t doubt it. But my question for Jackson is this: can he be the table setter this lineup needs for their big three? As the leadoff hitter in Detroit, Jackson hit a mere .263 with a .303 OBP. That is not going to get it done.
So who does Seattle turn to? Seth Smith? While an option, Smith is better suited as a second hitter or farther down the lineup because of the lack of power and consistency issues, particularly the later the year runs.
Dustin Ackley, who has been about as productive as a guy that sits and watches YouTube videos for a living, isn’t your leadoff guy. And frankly, wherever Ackley is positioned in this lineup is an automatic out. And I don’t want to hear about how good his spring training has been this year. Spring training stats are as good as effective as having popcorn for supper hoping for substance.
Same for Brad Miller.
To me, this offense is way too suspect to consistently produce enough runs to win games. You can have all the pitching, this is nothing new to Mariners fans, as evidenced by Felix’s 13-12 Cy Young campaign in 2010.
I can’t say I’d be surprised if Cruz, Cano and Seager each hit 25 or more homers and don’t reach 100 RBIs.
I know a lot of people are big on Seattle this year, and while I love their young pitching, this lineup doesn’t get me excited in the least.
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