Breakout Candidate Profile: Roenis Elias

There’s got to be something in the water in Cuba that gets their pitchers to develop the nastiest sliders you’ve ever seen.

Jose Fernandez has probably the nastiest slider I’ve seen on a right hander.

Obviously Aroldis Chapman has the 100-103 MPH fastball, but his equalizer is that devastating slider.

Add a young Cuban lefty Roenis Elias to that list.

Elias came up through the Mariners system after signing out of Cuba in 2011. While his minor league numbers were never anything to get excited about, Elias skipped right past Triple-A and jumped to the big leagues, where he really played well.

Finishing the year at 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA, 143 strikeouts, 64 walks in 163 innings, Elias’ rise to the big leagues was thanks to injury bug that bit the Mariners pitching staff pretty hard last year.

In three full minor league seasons, this 25-year old was never as effective as he was with the Mariners in 2014. 2012 may be the best year to point to as a reference point of what he did in 2014. He threw 167 innings, striking out 144 and walking 51 with a 3.87 ERA, but that was all at High-A and the Venezuelan Winter League. Almost 150 of those innings were at High-A and Elias really struggled in the Winter League.

So what makes Elias so promising?

His stuff is very good. For a guy with little prestige as a prospect, his stuff seems on the surface above average. He has a 94-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout breaking ball.

In addition, Elias can rack up the strikeouts. He racked up six Ks or better in 11 of his 29 starts.

The Cuban lefty made 29 starts last year for Seattle, however, 15 times he didn’t make it out of the sixth inning. However, in 13 of those starts, he was yanked before he could reach 100 pitches, which tells me, he likely had more in the tank, and they were limiting his innings.

Further evidence of limiting his innings was the Mariners shutting him down for a few weeks late in the year, sending him to Triple-A (for his debut there) and bringing him back up for a few starts at the end of the year.

That tells me they think he’s a guy they want in their rotation this year, as he’s competing for a spot, and they hope they can give a full green light to and possibly get more out of after the fifth and sixth innings.

Like other players that have skipped Triple-A altogether, there is quite the learning curve for them, and inconsistencies can many times plague players, especially when thrown into a full time role. I like that the Mariners were patient with him, and allowed him to get a shot. That is encouraging.

A lot of what is positive about Elias is the way the organization handled him. Limiting his innings and pitch count and not getting a knee-jerk reaction after a bad start really showed, in my humble opinion, they like him.

If you’re looking for fantasy value, I have to admit, I do not recommend drafting Elias unless you’re in a very, very deep league, we’re talking 30 roster spots or better. If you’re in a league with a starts or innings limit, or in a weekly lock league, I’d absolutely not recommend drafting him.

I would recommend keeping him on your watch list. I recommended keeping close tabs on Kennys Vargas, 1B for the Twins, I’d do the same for Elias.

If he doesn’t make the Mariners rotation out of spring training, definitely keep tabs on what he’s doing if he’s in the Triple-A rotation, or keeping an eye on what he’s doing out of the bullpen.

A strong start for Elias could mean he gets the first crack at filling a spot because of injury or someone else’s struggles.

More innings and more opportunities in 2015 could mean more strikeouts and more wins for a guy capable of making it in the major leagues, and could be a quality option on your fantasy team.

For Mariners fans, I’d say they should be cautiously optimistic on him. The ability is there, it’s a matter of getting all the pieces flowing at the same time.

In case you missed it, check out my other preview for the likes of Marcell Ozuna, Travis d'Arnaud, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, James Paxton, and Avisail Garcia.