Breakout Candidate Profile: James Paxton

Six-foot-four, 220 pounds, a power left handed arm with a career 2.66 career ERA. Who would you think I AM talking about? David Price? Clayton Kershaw? Chris Sale? Aroldis Chapman?

No.

Seattle’s James Paxton.

Yes, I do realize Paxton barely has a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but I think the 2.66 ERA is a good indicator of where this guy could, again COULD, end up.

Is the 2.66 ERA sustainable? Likely not given the offensive lineups in the American League West, but there are a number of factors that indicate Paxton is in for a breakout in 2015.

Alarming is of course the injuries Paxton has battled last year, but also the amount of walks he issued when he came back from injury late in the year. Almost a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. His minor league average was around 2.4 walks to strikeouts, but he did get better as he progressed through the minor leagues, which to me is a good sign. Considering a regression at the big league level, though, two-to-one is a fair predictor.

But, make no mistake about it, Paxton will strike guys out. 422 Ks in 390 innings in minor league baseball. I think his underwhelming 80 strikeouts in nearly 100 major league innings is less an indicator of his effectiveness at the big-league level and more a product of being unable to play a full season last year and limit time in Seattle.

Will Paxton be a 200 strikeout pitcher this year? It is very doubtful, but I think the area of 170-180 is more likely if he can find a way to cut down on the walks and allow himself to get deeper into ballgames.

Some available and traded relievers ranked by Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP). Generally considered a predictive measure…
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2014

I’m also encouraged by Paxton’s Fielding Independent Pitching statistics, FIP. FIP is a sabermetric statistic that has a set formula based on the elements of the game a pitcher can control, I.E. walks, strikeouts and homeruns and turns that number into an ERA like number.

What I like about FIP is how it takes the idea of chance out of the equation. It’s almost the On Base Percentage to the pitcher, in that it can be an indicator of future success.

@bigsphil Fielding Independent Pitching. An ERA estimator based on pitcher's K% BB% and HR rate, but not BABIP
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) July 14, 2014

So, let’s look at Paxton’s FIP at the big league level. I mentioned his 2.66 career ERA. Obviously unless he’s going to turn into Clayton Kershaw, and I’m not saying he will and I’m not saying he won’t, but that number is likely not sustainable.

At a career 3.27 FIP, that gets him a seat the “great” table according to fangraphs.com, a notch below “excellent”. In addition to taking the elements of fielding out of the equation, it is believed FIP can be a measure of what the future holds for a particular pitcher, in particular, one with a small sample size.

If you’re a Mariners fan or a fantasy owner, would you take a three starter or a starter you could maybe take towards the back end of your draft with a 3.20-something ERA, a 180 strikeout ceiling and playing on a team where he could win 15 games? I think you might.

In addition to the improved Mariners lineup in 2015, pitching in that ballpark regularly isn’t going to hurt his cause either. So far in Paxton’s career at Safeco Park, he’s 5-0 in seven starts, with a 1.69 ERA, and 37 strikeouts to only 10 walks. Seems pretty evident, the guy already like pitching there.

If you’re in a weekly league where lineups lock at the start of each week (I am), you may have to take the good with the bad if you want to own him.

Check out my other break out candidates, including Travis d'Arnaud, Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas, and Marcell Ozuna.