Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 2 Reaction

Have I ever said how much I love the Winter Meetings?
I was ready to Tweet and react to my heart’s content yesterday throughout the day but then nothing happened. I get home from work and I have to go back and all hell breaks loose and everybody decides to lose their minds.
Diamondbacks/Braves Blockbuster
Here’s my biggest takeaway from Day 2 of the Winter Meetings: No matter who’s in charge, no matter how much progress you think they are making, the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to continue do boneheaded things.
Everyone talks about how improved this rotation is and how the National League West is now on notice.
Friends, I buy it a little bit. But let’s not ignore the fact they just mortgaged the future to incrementally make themselves better. They paid paid for Park Avenue but are getting Prospect Heights.
Yes, Shelby Miller is coming off his best season as a pro and is only 25 but if we go back to his minor league days, Miller has always struggled with control.
He’s had a great pro career but his walk to strikeout ratio is a hair-above 2-to-1. His WHIP is OK, 1.24 for his career, and his 3.22 ERA is pretty good.
Is Miller a good add for Arizona, yes, he is. But what get’s me about the Dbacks is they gave up too much. 
Too much.
Dansby Swanson was the number one overall pick last year for a reason. If he has a good, not great or stellar, but good year in the minor leagues, he could be in the big leagues this fall.
I’ve always liked Aaron Blair. I thought he was as close as any prospect to the big leagues and as promising a prospect as Arizona had other than maybe Archie Bradley.
I personally think Blair alone, is going to end up better than Miller. But the Diamondbacks totally went over the deep end and added their future shortstop to the mix.
Not to mention, giving up Ender Inciarte, who finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, then followed that performance up with an even better one in 2015.
I just cannot fathom Arizona once again, proving how absolutely inept they are at running a franchise. It is just astounding. If I was a Dbacks fan, I would hate this trade.
Ownership has put their fanbase in a tough spot, because this team has promise. They could have stood pat this winter and been an arguable favorite in the west.
I actually would like to redact what I said that this deal actually makes the Diamondbacks WORSE. Worse in the long run.
They gave up a franchise shortstop with no reasonable options at the position for the long term. They gave up a guy with the ceiling of a one or two starter and a very solid outfielder that would have been a huge part of an already stellar offense.
I just do not understand this team, it’s management, or what they are trying to accomplish.
If they wanted a starting pitcher and they were hell bent on using that particular set of players to get one, personally, I think they could have done a helluva lot better than Shelby Miller.
But that’s my opinion.

That said, how much pitching do the Atlanta Braves need?
I’ve tweeted time and again, the Atlanta Braves are going to have a record ERA in a few years, however, they’re going to have an absolutely inept offense.
John Hart and his staff has completely revamped the Braves pitching rotation for the future. There is no question. This rotation is going to be beyond scaring, it’ll be frightening, especially if a handful of the dozens of talents they have pan out.
But where are they going to get runs from?
There is always the possibility they trade their arms for a bat or two, and that could likely happen, but the way this future lineup is constructed, there is next to no firepower, especially if they are still set on trading Freddie Freeman.
Dansby Swanson is now the obvious replacement for Andrelton Simmons. It scares me to have Swanson now in the NL East, but good for the Braves.
Other than him, where are the Braves going to find any offense? Of their top ten prospects, just two are hitters (Swanson) and the other is a low-level shortstop.
I don’t know where the Braves want to go with all this, and I don’t know that they know where they want to go with all this, but it is looking mighty good to be a Braves fan right now.
Eventually, they are going to have to put runs on the board to support these arms and get some victories.
We’ll see if Johnny Hart has some more tricks up his sleeve as we go forward. He’s basically robbed everybody out west of their young talent to this point.

Cubs
Here’s where I come out with this Cubs adding Zobrist and moving Castro.
I think the move is great.
First of all, thank you Theo and Jed for taking Zobrist away from the Mets. I had no interest in that guy coming to New York.
Not because I don’t like Zobrist, but let’s consider the Mets roster construction. Strong young pitching. But if you add Zobrist, you have three 35-plus year old players on your roster at some point next season that need playing time because of their salaries.
Additionally, you’re pretty much at the corner spots with Duda and Wright, and let’s not kid ourselves, David Wright is a shell of his former self.
So all in all, I’m OK with Chicago “stealing” Zobrist from the Mets.
I think he adds another great bat to their lineup. I think he gives them tremendous flexibility if or when, the Cubs need. And I think he’s just a downright, solid, hard working baseball player that is going to be a great mentor to some of the young players they’re developing.
As for Castro, I know the Cubs sold very low on him.
His trade value has never been tremendous and most Cubs fans and baseball people would probably admit he was always going to be the odd man out there.
I know the Cubs liked Adam Warren, and that’s fine. But I thought they could have done better. I think they caught themselves in the midst of the Zobrist negotiations and realized they had to do something with their middle infield, and found the first suitor that would take Castro.
From the Yankees end of things, I think it's a great move. Castro is likely to place second base from everything I saw, and I think he is going to thrive in that ballpark.
Reactionary move if you ask me.

A couple other things from Day 2:

  • As a Mets fan, I really think they need to bring Cespedes back. This is a middle of the pack lineup as constructed without him. If they go into 2015 without Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes with no upgrades anywhere else on the field, except to play Michael Conforto regularly, then I can’t live with that and as a fan, I’ll be livid. I know there’s already too many outfielders on this roster, but guess what? There were already too many outfielders on the roster when he was added back in July. Terry and company can figure it out or they can easily trade someone to make room (Maybe Granderson who will be 35 on Opening Day and I can’t say I count on him repeating his 2015 performance, which was way better than I ever thought he could do). I need firepower and someone in the lineup that makes it respectable, and Cespedes is the guy. I don’t want to hear about his defense and his unwillingness to play centerfield or right field or whatever. It can be done because it already has. The Mets clearly don’t care about defense because Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy was their Opening Day middle infield and Travis d’Arnaud is our catcher.

  • I sat and blasted the Diamondbacks for their ineptitude, it’s time I do the same to the Marlins for even considering moving the best arm they’ve maybe ever had to come through their system.
    This is so typical Marlins. Rob Manfred and the powers that be aren’t going to tell Miami they can’t move Fernandez, but if this trade happens, baseball has to address Jeffry Loria and his ownership of that franchise and do a comprehensive top to bottom analysis of what’s best for them and the city. It’s beyond disgraceful the way things are handled year to year in Miami, not to mention they have a state of the art, brand new stadium that has yet to have a winner on the field and at the same time is being financed by the taxpayers. Miami not only deserves a winner, there is absolutely no reason under their perpetual sun they can’t have one. It’s a terrific market with a lot of money and diversity and city that actually wants a baseball team. Disgraceful.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 1 Reaction

I love the winter meetings.


There is likely more activity in the three or four days of the meetings than the rest of the entire winter. Granted, a lot of the big contracts will probably signed closer to Christmas, or soon thereafter, but the groundwork for those deals is usually laid this time of year and then a lot of trades go down as a byproduct of a lot of those talks.


It’s almost your appetizer to Spring Training.


So without much further ado, I want to react to day 1 (yes, I know I’m very late).


My day 1 highlights:


Wade Miley to Seattle for RP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias.


This deal caught my eye.


The ballpark in Seattle is huge. It’s a hitters nightmare and a pitchers paradise. Miley struggled mightily in Boston this last year. (He wasn’t the only one of course)


But in previous years in Arizona, Miley was a solid pitcher, throwing to a 3.79 ERA but a 4+ ERA last year in Boston.


I think Miley bounces back in Seattle.


For the Red Sox, they continue to bolster their bullpen by adding Smith who had a terrific year in Seattle. He’ll likely set up the recently acquired Craig Kimbrel.


But I’m not sure what to think on Roenis Elias. I really like this guy.


Cuban lefty with filthy stuff. My issue is Elias has always had a notoriously high WHIP and BABIP. (Career 1.30 WHIP, .290 BABIP). Part of my fondness with him was also the fact he played in a very hitter friendly ballpark. But then I went back and looked, Elias actually had a better ERA away from SafeCo than he did there.


That surprised me and made me wonder if perhaps he can succeed in Boston but in a league full of hitters parks (Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium and Fenway), I do have my doubts.


The upside for Elias is he can strike out a ton of guys. He struggles with control but when he’s on, he is unhittable.


I’ll wait and see before I say I don’t like him in Boston.


A couple left-handed we had thought were on the move yesterday ultimately didn’t go anywhere. It’s obvious the off-field troubles recently for Aroldis Chapman are holding back his trade value.


I thought early in the day, we were going to see Scott Kazmir sign in Kansas City. From everything I’ve seen so far, there is a ton of interest in him. I like Kazmir but I think the ballpark he will ultimately throw in is what is going to make him valuable for me. I think he needs a hitters park where he can get guys to put the ball in play. He’s becoming less and less of a strikeout pitcher and is going to have rely on guys putting the ball in play.


Alright, I have to address Jason Heyward.


I’ve watched Jason Heyward from the day he came to the big leagues with hype equal to probably Mike Trout. I don’t think that is a stretch. People loved this guy.


And after one season in St. Louis, the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase is ready to pay this man like he’s Trout or Bryce Harper.


Friends, I don’t mince words when I talk about Jason Heyward; the man is overrated.


I can admit he was one of the better outfielders in baseball this past year. He was. There’s no question.


But here’s the thing folks: It was a walk year for him. He was playing for the next contract.


How many guys have we seen in that scenario with a huge walk year? The names are endless. Carlos Beltran. Jayson Werth. Johnny Damon. Jason Bay. Matt Holliday.  Just to name a few.


Guys get paid after they have a big year. And that’s fine. That’s what they are supposed to do: cash in.


But let’s not act like Jason Heyward has turned the corner, because quite honestly, that line is worn out on this baseball guy.


I’ve seen Heyward have months that he looks like an MVP and I’ve thought to myself, “my God, if this guy does this until September, he’s the unanimous MVP”.


But he NEVER has!


His splits month to month every year are drastic.


I put out yesterday Heyward’s OPS year to year and it totally epitomizes what the man is all about: Inconsistency.


But let’s not make OPS to be the ultimate definition of his success. What does Jason Heyward do well?


He doesn’t strike out. I don’t think any team will says they don’t like that about him.


His glove is tremendous. As evidenced by his three Gold Gloves. Again, no team is going to say they don’t like that about him.


He runs the bases incredibly well.

One statistic I have recently come across I really like is weighted runs created, or wRC.


I feel like wRC is a great way of quantifying how a player impacts the game beyond their traditional stat line. And when it comes down to it, Jason Heyward just isn’t elite.


Last year, in one of his best years as a pro, he wasn’t even top 25, in fact he was 39th.


Cardinals fans want to argue, well maybe he’s turned the corner. Well it’s because he plays in St. Louis.


I never argue with the metaphysical philosophy that because a guy plays in St. Louis, his level of play will automatically rise.


Until now.


It just won’t happen with Jason Heyward.


My personal belief is: if the Cardinals are the team to give this guy the $150-million he is seeking, this fan base will be tired of him by year two. They’ll forgive a down year off the big contract, but by June or July, of 2017, you’ll see what I’m talking about.


I know where I stand with Heyward. I’ve watched him. Being a Mets fan, you know I’ve watched him. I’ve tracked him. I’m not surprised he surpassed his career averages in almost every statistical category after a year in St. Louis. It was as predictable as the sun rising.


But again, to me, he’s a product of being in a walk year. Not a new environment.


I think, wherever he ends up, we see Heyward regress to the Heyward of old, and not the one-year Cardinal-wonder Heyward.


This has nothing to do with the Winter Meetings, just some baseball tidbits I put out yesterday.


  • In 2015, Noah Syndergaard became the second rookie pitcher in MLB history with at least 160 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks in a season.
    • So basically the kid throws 100 MPH will pinpoint control. When he figures out how to limit his H/9 (better pitch selection/getting ahead in the count more consistently) it's all over.
  • Jacob deGrom's 2015 FIP went up from 2.67 in '14 to a whopping 2.70 in '15. Simply put: young blood is going to be here for a long time.