Readers, believe it or not, we are literally days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. I don’t get excited like the overzealous baseball fan does because honestly 9 weeks of over analzying and over-discussing everything just gets tiresome, not to mention there’s a perfectly awesome college basketball season and NHL campaign going on that should more than hold the sports fan’s attention for at least another month.
But that said, it is never too early to start thinking fantasy baseball. I don’t know how deep some of you play, but I’m in a league that goes almost year ‘round. (We take a break for about two weeks after the World Series and every body is in full fledge get better mode)
Over the course of February, I’ve got about 10 guys I’m going to have you target as potential breakout candidates for the summer of 2015 you’re going to want to have on your fantasy team.
Today, we start with New York Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud.
d’Arnaud has long been a coveted prospect, back to his early career with the Phillies, but injuries have kept this young stud from becoming an overnight star. If we look statistically at the progression of d’Arnaud (more specifically the 2nd half of last year), it’s not a stretch to say Travis d’Arnaud could be one of the real fantasy revelations this year.
No matter your source for baseball news, it is no secret d’Arnaud underachieved in his first real taste of big league action. But let’s consider where this kid was in his major league career. He had only 100 at bats at the end of 2013, a season where he was continuously battling injuries, then came back in 2014, and battled more injuries, and never reached the 300 at-bat plateau until late in the first half of the season.
What I find interesting about d’Arnaud, is it took him a trip to the minor leagues in early June to get himself right. Mets fans, coaches and ownership were growing increasingly impatient with his offensive production, and so a trip to Triple-A Las Vegas was arranged. It was there the young catcher just exploded.
He went down and mashed to the line of .436/.475/.909 in 15 games with six home runs and 16 RBIs.
d’Arnaud came up, hit .265 in the second half, with a .313 OBP and a .474 slugging percentage.
His batting average on batted balls in play jumped from a .241 clip in the first half of the year to a .274 average in the second half of the season. He hit .265 in the second of the year, meaning his hits (non-home runs) were effectively hit baseballs the defense could not make a play on.
Comprehensive breakdown of Travis d'Arnaud's season. Interesting to see how good he is at going the other way: http://t.co/cmWdpljgnt #Mets
— Robert Brender (@robertbrender) October 8, 2014
To me though, the telling stat is Travis d’Arnaud’s line drive rate. The line drive rate from May to September/October went from 9.1% to 23.4% to 23.5% to 20.4% to finish the year. His first half clip to second half rate jumped from 18% from to 21.1 %. (For a reference point, the league average line drive rate is 21%. Additionally, a sustained three month period of over 20-percent for d’Arnaud, is more than encouraging to his adjustments at the plate).
A statistic not necessarily indicative to d’Arnaud success, but just interesting overall, is when d’Arnaud hit, the Mets won. In wins, d’Arnaud his .273, but in losses, he only went for a .215 average. Statistically speaking, a decent year out of Travis d’Arnaud could be a decent year for the New York Mets.
"It's no longer potential. It's legit." ~ Terry on Travis d'Arnaud's offense #mets
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 26, 2014
The biggest factor for d’Arnaud is his health. The kid has to stay on the field. I feel like a lot of his injuries have been somewhat flukie. (I.E. concussion, collision at home plate injuries, ankles, etc) It’s not unfair to say he’s been prone to the injury bug, but if healthy and based on his progress late last year, we could very well be looking at one of the real up and coming stars in baseball and yes, even fantasy baseball.
Anymore, every fantasy baseball league is different, so it would be difficult to sit here and give you advice on where to take him in your draft or if you should keep him (if you’ve stuck with him so far), but I know one thing, this is a guy I may not want to give another owner a chance at if your draft board starts to get a little slim, especially at the catching position.
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