Thursday, May 21, 2015

Cubs, Mets, Wrigley Field

It’s been a really fun week, a really, really fun week.

Personally, I made my maiden voyage to Chicago for a first-ever visit to Wrigley Field, Cubs phenom Kris Bryant blasted his first home run this weekend, he hit his first Wrigley home run Monday, and the Cubs are giving their fans a ton of hope as they have (as of Thursday morning) taken the first three of a four game set from the New York Mets. (They ended up with a sweep as we all know)

Being a Mets, while the losses are frustrating, there is a lot of things for me to be excited about. Top prospect Noah Syndergaard, made his debut at the game I was at Tuesday, and in my opinion, looked great. Matt Harvey followed up with a stellar performance, unfortunately, our defense, offense, base-running and late game pitching has been abysmal in this series, and this month, so naturally, those two performances were wasted.

But, today I’m going to focus on the future of two franchises I am looking for nothing but big things from going forward.

I start with the Chicago Cubs today.

The Cubs, especially the young players, were as advertised this week. So impressive, I’m having a hard time figuring out where to start.

I’ll start with Anthony Rizzo. Already a superstar, and in my opinion, one of the most underrated stars of our game today, he gets very little respect for being, again, in my opinion, the cornerstone to this team’s success.

Rizzo is off to a tremendous start to this 2015 season. A .333 average entering play Thursday, a ridiculous .463 OBP though is what is catching my eye. I watched Rizzo patiently work young Noah Syndergaard Tuesday into two of the four walks he’d issue in his big league debut (Rizzo finished with three on the night).

Obviously I came away beyond impressed with Kris Bryant. His towering home run late in the game, his second for the series, was a mammoth shot. When I watched the replay, it looked like he hardly swung. The amount of power, patience and flat out skill this guy has is unbelievable, oh and his defense is beyond good enough to keep him at third base long term. He made some tremendous plays at the hot corner Tuesday.

I also was impressed with Jake Arrieta. Coming off a breakout 2014, Arrieta has been very good in ‘15. He started Tuesday’s game very slow, in fact, at the outset, my friend and I didn’t think he’d make it through six, let alone the eight he finished with. But Arrieta settled down, walking only a pair (to Curtis Granderson) despite obvious control problems, and struck out ten.

While the Mets offense has been stagnant at best recently, it was still impressive given the patience the Metropolitans have come to exhibit in recent years.

Despite finishing with an 0-for, I came away also impressed with Dexter Fowler. The guy has charisma with the fans, he’s already a favorite and it’s only the middle of May, and he plays the game the right way and has fun doing it.

I liked what I saw from Addison Russell. The guy barely spent any time at Double-A, and looks like he has been around for a year now. I thought his plate patience (at least the night I watched) was very good, and his defense is excellent.

I’ve said it several times in recent weeks, the transformation of the Cubs from a cellar-dweller to, well, what their arch-nemesis the St. Louis Cardinals have built, isn’t going to happen with the callups of all these young players.

Yes, it is very much an exciting time to be a Cubs fan, and guys, I’m thrilled you finally have something to be ecstatic about, but winning in the big leagues is a process.

Theo Epstein is doing it right. He’s not doing this Billy Bean crap, buying all these “underrated” guys with a .410 minor league OBP then flaming out by late August.

No. Theo is getting guys that are going to last, that have visible talent and are going to make an impact in Chicago for years to come.

But it’s not going to be this year.

I truly believe the Cubs will finish in the middle of the pack in the NL Central, and in the league. But don’t take that as me saying, “I don’t believe in the Cubs”, because that is the farthest thing from the truth.

The truth is, the Cubs finishing in the middle of the pack, is nothing short of a victory. Consider this.

By year’s end, Chicago could have three, maybe four (depending on what happens with Kyle Schwarber) rookies in the top five of the league in Rookie of the Year, with Bryant likely being the unanimous choice for the award.

Friends, for the Cubs to finish at .500 with that kind of inexperience in their lineup is utterly tremendous, in my opinion.

Creating a consist, long term, sustainable winning culture in the big leagues takes time. If the Cubs want to get to the level of a St. Louis or Boston, they need to take the bad with the good. Byrant, Soler, Russell, etc are going to struggle at some point. They need to learn how to deal with that struggle.

I think having a guy like Joe Maddon in their clubhouse and dugout is going to speed up that process of getting the kids through their struggles and creating a winning culture, but again, it’s not going to be overnight, or this year.

I think Jon Lester is going to help in that process from a pitching perspective. While Lester is a great pitcher, and his impact on the young pitchers in the Cubs organization cannot be quantified through numbers, my issue is, in a couple years when the Cubs are ready to compete regularly and they are at a championship level, Lester is going to be pushing the age where he is going to be breaking down.

He may still very well be effective, but my guess is he’ll be giving the team around 25 to 28 starts, but the Cubs are going to need that stopper. They’re going to need that ace, ie Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Clayton Kershaw, that is going to stop the bleeding when they are on a three or four game losing streak. Or that guy that is going to prolong a six or seven game win streak.

Right now, the Cubs simply don’t have that guy.

All Cubs fans point to Starlin Castro as the most expendable guy in that middle-infield rotation, but that’s not going to get you a top flight pitcher. It’s going to take Baez or Russell. It just is.

Just a hunch, I have no factual evidence to prove it, but I think Theo pushed Russell to the big leagues to showcase him to teams, and demonstrate, he is ready for pro-ball, and I think this winter, we could see Theo move Baez or Russell for that big time arm they are going to need long term.

Again friends I say, the Cubs are coming. Sure as God’s vengeance, they are coming.

For the Mets, the strength is evident.

This pitching staff is really, really good.

Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard had very strong showings at Wrigley. Jon Niese continues to be a mentally weak liability in this rotation.

I’ve had my fill of Jon Niese, for about three years now. The Mets think he has value on the trade market. Personally, I think guys like Dillon Gee or even Rafael Montero have more value than him.

But other than Niese, I do like this rotation. And I love what I saw from Noah Syndergaard Tuesday.

His fastball was explosive, his breaking ball was devastating, and he looked like a guy that could be a top of the rotation pitcher soon.

And while the Mets pitching is exciting, and soon to be championship worthy, nothing else about this team is.

Their hitting is putrid. Their defense, other than Juan Lagares, is absolutely awful, and my God, can this team get a runner in when they’re in scoring position?

Until the Mets start putting runs up on the board and field a ground ball cleanly and make a decent throw to first, they won’t be competing.

Like the Cubs, Mets fans are on cloud nine or Syndergaard and Harvey and deGrom, and for good reason, but there’s so much more to competing and winning than just getting these guys into the rotation and getting good performances from them.

I said it at the top of the season, and I still hold to it; the Mets are a year, at least, away from competing for the playoffs.

Both teams may be in the race towards the end of August, but it would surprise me a lot if either gets into the postseason at this point in the year.

I cannot help but be excited for Cubs fans, and I am excited to be a Mets fan at the moment. In good time, each will start to enjoy a tremendous amount of success.

I must address Wrigley Field very quickly.

Like I said, last Tuesday was my first time being there, and while it wasn’t my favorite park (the nachos were just OK, the park itself was just OK), but I really enjoyed it.

I loved the “first timers” certificate the kind woman at the gate put together, juvenile I know, but no other ballpark, not even Fenway, does that.

Now, I don’t know what Wrigley was like pre-jumbotrons, but I loved the new scoreboards. I thought they added a modern taste to a historic place, and truthfully, I don't know if I could have enjoyed the game without them. I don't know how fans went all these years without one.

I enjoyed the new bleachers, and I thought the place as a whole had a great historic feel, and truthfully, I didn’t hype it up in my head, but it did indeed surpass my expectations.

I’m still curious about what Cubs fans think about the new scoreboards. So how ‘bout it Cubbies fans, you like the new scoreboards or what?

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Alex Guerrero, Early Surprises and Why It's Too Early To Jump To Conclusions

Friends, we are now passed the one month mark of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. It literally feels like yesterday I was stoked about The Masters and the Final Four coupled with Opening Night then Opening Day.

Let me first start this piece off by saying, it way, way, way too early to be saying any one team is in trouble or any one team is the clear favorite in any spot in the standings. As of this morning (May 7), most teams have played 28 games. The White Sox are the exception because of their series that was postponed in Baltimore.

Only in the National League Central is there a 10-games or better lead between the first place team and the last place team, and frankly, it’s because the Cardinals are playing ludicrous baseball right now and the Brewers can’t get out of their own way.

So with that said, I’m not panicking on the Washington Nationals who have struggled out of the gate, I’m not panicking on the White Sox or Indians who are playing sub-par baseball to this point, and I’m definitely not ready to crown the New York Mets the victors of the National League East despite the outstanding pitching performances they’ve turned in to date.

To me, talk of “is this team in trouble” or “does this team need to make a move now?” are just silly questions.

Most hitters don’t have 100 at bats yet and most pitchers have either barely reached (if they’ve reached at all) 50 IP. I always like to see hitters reach that triple-digit at bat plateau and I like pitchers to get about 75-100 innings in before I start judging where their season is headed.

That’s mostly due to the fact you can go from a .225 average to 270 with a 4-for-5 night, and suddenly two home runs and nine RBIs can turn into 4 HR and 13 RBIs literally overnight.

So to panic on guys right now is just silly.

That said, it’s not too early to be concerned.

I am concerned about the Indians. This was a team I thought was in store for big things in 2015. I thought their pitchers made huge strides in 2014, specifically Trevor Bauer and Carlos Corrasco, I thought they were getting some guys healthy that could have a big impact, and I thought they had the prospect firepower for it to be really, a special summer in Cleveland (especially given LeBron is back).

Again, not panacing on the Tribe one bit. Carlos Corrasco has had a decent start to his season. Trevor Bauer has been stellar, and Corey Kluber has been OK.

The offense needs some guys to start stepping up, but make no mistake about it, things can, and should, turn around quickly in Cleveland soon.

While I didn’t expect them to make the playoffs, I definitely thought the Chicago White Sox would be better than they’ve been. A lot of their struggles have been at the hands of their two big arms, Jeff Samardzija and Chris Sale. At 4.38 and 5.32 respectively, Samardzija and Sale have been less than good in the first fifth of the season. But like I pointed out earlier, a couple efforts of 7 or 8 strong innings can easily manipulate those poor starts into sub-3 ERAs very quickly.

As of this morning, the Washington Nationals sit 4.5 back of the New York Mets in the East. While I’m tremendously excited about what the Mets are doing, the potential the Nationals have is beyond scary to me. Five top of the rotation starters and an unbelievably explosive offense are the combination for winning 18 of 20 in a 22 day stretch.

All the naysayers for Washington are probably loving their place in the standings, to me, their performance as a team has been pretty bad to this point and yet here they are, early May, and in excellent shape in the division.

Counting the Nationals out right now is simply foolish.

Right now, I love what three teams are doing. That’s the Mets, Astros and Cubs.

To me, these three teams were about a year away from truly being contenders in their respective divisions, and yet here they are right there in each one. Houston and New York lead theirs and the Cubs are an early surprise in the Central, just 5.5 back of the insanely hot St. Louis Cardinals.

I love the aggressiveness in which the Cubs are managing. I think it came with little surprise the Cubs waited their 12 days or whatever to call up Kris Bryant, but what did come as a shock was the Cubs bringing up prized prospect Addison Russell with limited experience at Triple-A. What’s even more surprising is the reaction from the league about those two after their Major League debuts.

Granted, each struggled but goodness, can we give them more than drip of coffee to the tongue before we start slamming them as busts and saying they were over their heads? Despite yet to hit his first big league homer, Bryant is hitting almost .300 with 13 RBIs in his first 60-plus at bats. Russell has two homers in his first 50 at bats and is more than holding his own at the plate despite 24 strikeouts.

While the Mets and Astros have been a little more conservative with their prized prospects (we have yet to see Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz or Carlos Correa), the two have used strategically strong offseason acquisitions and health to bolster a 10-game win streak and catapult themselves atop their respective divisions.

While I doubt any of these three teams finish making the playoffs, the early resiliency of their young talent has to make each fan base more than excited about what the future holds.

I hate saying this, because I feel like I’m jinxing them, but I think at this point the Mets have the best shot at a postseason appearance, simply because their pitching is the best. But make no mistake about it, Houston and Chicago will not go away, and there is more talent coming for all three, and it’ll be here before you know it.

I would address the Cardinals scorching hot start, but I mean, are any of you honestly surprised? Did you really think this team would go away after Adam Wainwright went down early on?

The best run franchise in not just baseball, but all of sports, always finds away to fill holes with guys that do nothing but produce. While I’m not a fan of them, it is unbelievable to watch.

Speaking of unbelievable to watch, is there a guy that is hitting any better than Dee Gordon to start this year? Hitting over .400 in 100-plus at bats, hits strikeouts are down and walks are up. I do not expect in the least this kid to hit .400, but if he can be a plus-.310 hitter, this lineup is going to be extremely difficult when you consider Christian Yelich is due back soon from injury and Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t hit his stride yet.

For the Cincinnati Reds, who are right up there with the Chicago Cubs near the top of the NL Central, having Joey Votto looking like his old self is an extremely huge boost for this team. Along with him, Todd Frazier and the ageless Marlon Byrd in the middle of that order are giving the Reds a huge boost despite the injuries that are hitting their pitching staff.

When, or if, Devin Mesoraco comes back to full health, the Reds could be a big surprise if they can start to get some contributions and mileage out of their pitching staff.

I’ll admit, this next subject, I’m very biased on, but I feel like the situation has been handled poorly.

It’s hard to argue with anything Donnie “Baseball” Mattingly does in LA, because his team sits in first place in a much improved National League East. With that fact recognized and very much respected, Donnie, can we get my guy Alex Guerrero some more playing.
I realize in his last 14 at bats, which spans a 10-day period, he has one base hit, but when you give him regular at bats, he does nothing but produce.

I know there’s trade interest in him, and while his contract looks very friendly, it’s actually not. But the kid has to play more. Despite a good start, Justin Turner is in no way a regular, Juan Uribe has started to hit better but the Dodgers aren’t a big fan of his, Guerrero must get more playing time.

After a ridiculous Mike Tyson/Evander Holyfield incident in the dugout where Guerrero got his ear bit off, the guy did nothing but rake at Triple-A. A .333/.373/.621 between three levels, most Triple-A though, blasting 17 home runs on 57 RBIs.

It’s time Alex Guerrero either get a full time shot or he be traded for an opportunity he’s earned, making the Dodgers eat crow on signing him to a ridiculous set of clauses in that contract.

With five big league home runs in less than 50 at bats, Guerrero could be an all-star but the Dodgers insist on relegating him to a part-time role with inferior talents such as Uribe, Turner and Scott Van Slyke.

Another guy that has been terrific that has come out of no where is Odubel Herrera. A Rule 5 draftee of the Phillies, Hererra had never played above Double-A, and yet has become a catalyst in the Phillies lineup. While an aggressive hitter, Hererra displays a good deal of understanding of the strike zone and if he can continue his success, should be a mainstay atop the Phillies lineup.

Between brawls, surprise performances, prospects and more, the first month of this baseball season is showing us the next five months are going to be nothing short of spectacular.

Don’t take your eyes off the ball for two seconds or you’ll miss some great stuff this year!