Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 2 Reaction

Have I ever said how much I love the Winter Meetings?
I was ready to Tweet and react to my heart’s content yesterday throughout the day but then nothing happened. I get home from work and I have to go back and all hell breaks loose and everybody decides to lose their minds.
Diamondbacks/Braves Blockbuster
Here’s my biggest takeaway from Day 2 of the Winter Meetings: No matter who’s in charge, no matter how much progress you think they are making, the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to continue do boneheaded things.
Everyone talks about how improved this rotation is and how the National League West is now on notice.
Friends, I buy it a little bit. But let’s not ignore the fact they just mortgaged the future to incrementally make themselves better. They paid paid for Park Avenue but are getting Prospect Heights.
Yes, Shelby Miller is coming off his best season as a pro and is only 25 but if we go back to his minor league days, Miller has always struggled with control.
He’s had a great pro career but his walk to strikeout ratio is a hair-above 2-to-1. His WHIP is OK, 1.24 for his career, and his 3.22 ERA is pretty good.
Is Miller a good add for Arizona, yes, he is. But what get’s me about the Dbacks is they gave up too much. 
Too much.
Dansby Swanson was the number one overall pick last year for a reason. If he has a good, not great or stellar, but good year in the minor leagues, he could be in the big leagues this fall.
I’ve always liked Aaron Blair. I thought he was as close as any prospect to the big leagues and as promising a prospect as Arizona had other than maybe Archie Bradley.
I personally think Blair alone, is going to end up better than Miller. But the Diamondbacks totally went over the deep end and added their future shortstop to the mix.
Not to mention, giving up Ender Inciarte, who finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, then followed that performance up with an even better one in 2015.
I just cannot fathom Arizona once again, proving how absolutely inept they are at running a franchise. It is just astounding. If I was a Dbacks fan, I would hate this trade.
Ownership has put their fanbase in a tough spot, because this team has promise. They could have stood pat this winter and been an arguable favorite in the west.
I actually would like to redact what I said that this deal actually makes the Diamondbacks WORSE. Worse in the long run.
They gave up a franchise shortstop with no reasonable options at the position for the long term. They gave up a guy with the ceiling of a one or two starter and a very solid outfielder that would have been a huge part of an already stellar offense.
I just do not understand this team, it’s management, or what they are trying to accomplish.
If they wanted a starting pitcher and they were hell bent on using that particular set of players to get one, personally, I think they could have done a helluva lot better than Shelby Miller.
But that’s my opinion.

That said, how much pitching do the Atlanta Braves need?
I’ve tweeted time and again, the Atlanta Braves are going to have a record ERA in a few years, however, they’re going to have an absolutely inept offense.
John Hart and his staff has completely revamped the Braves pitching rotation for the future. There is no question. This rotation is going to be beyond scaring, it’ll be frightening, especially if a handful of the dozens of talents they have pan out.
But where are they going to get runs from?
There is always the possibility they trade their arms for a bat or two, and that could likely happen, but the way this future lineup is constructed, there is next to no firepower, especially if they are still set on trading Freddie Freeman.
Dansby Swanson is now the obvious replacement for Andrelton Simmons. It scares me to have Swanson now in the NL East, but good for the Braves.
Other than him, where are the Braves going to find any offense? Of their top ten prospects, just two are hitters (Swanson) and the other is a low-level shortstop.
I don’t know where the Braves want to go with all this, and I don’t know that they know where they want to go with all this, but it is looking mighty good to be a Braves fan right now.
Eventually, they are going to have to put runs on the board to support these arms and get some victories.
We’ll see if Johnny Hart has some more tricks up his sleeve as we go forward. He’s basically robbed everybody out west of their young talent to this point.

Cubs
Here’s where I come out with this Cubs adding Zobrist and moving Castro.
I think the move is great.
First of all, thank you Theo and Jed for taking Zobrist away from the Mets. I had no interest in that guy coming to New York.
Not because I don’t like Zobrist, but let’s consider the Mets roster construction. Strong young pitching. But if you add Zobrist, you have three 35-plus year old players on your roster at some point next season that need playing time because of their salaries.
Additionally, you’re pretty much at the corner spots with Duda and Wright, and let’s not kid ourselves, David Wright is a shell of his former self.
So all in all, I’m OK with Chicago “stealing” Zobrist from the Mets.
I think he adds another great bat to their lineup. I think he gives them tremendous flexibility if or when, the Cubs need. And I think he’s just a downright, solid, hard working baseball player that is going to be a great mentor to some of the young players they’re developing.
As for Castro, I know the Cubs sold very low on him.
His trade value has never been tremendous and most Cubs fans and baseball people would probably admit he was always going to be the odd man out there.
I know the Cubs liked Adam Warren, and that’s fine. But I thought they could have done better. I think they caught themselves in the midst of the Zobrist negotiations and realized they had to do something with their middle infield, and found the first suitor that would take Castro.
From the Yankees end of things, I think it's a great move. Castro is likely to place second base from everything I saw, and I think he is going to thrive in that ballpark.
Reactionary move if you ask me.

A couple other things from Day 2:

  • As a Mets fan, I really think they need to bring Cespedes back. This is a middle of the pack lineup as constructed without him. If they go into 2015 without Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes with no upgrades anywhere else on the field, except to play Michael Conforto regularly, then I can’t live with that and as a fan, I’ll be livid. I know there’s already too many outfielders on this roster, but guess what? There were already too many outfielders on the roster when he was added back in July. Terry and company can figure it out or they can easily trade someone to make room (Maybe Granderson who will be 35 on Opening Day and I can’t say I count on him repeating his 2015 performance, which was way better than I ever thought he could do). I need firepower and someone in the lineup that makes it respectable, and Cespedes is the guy. I don’t want to hear about his defense and his unwillingness to play centerfield or right field or whatever. It can be done because it already has. The Mets clearly don’t care about defense because Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy was their Opening Day middle infield and Travis d’Arnaud is our catcher.

  • I sat and blasted the Diamondbacks for their ineptitude, it’s time I do the same to the Marlins for even considering moving the best arm they’ve maybe ever had to come through their system.
    This is so typical Marlins. Rob Manfred and the powers that be aren’t going to tell Miami they can’t move Fernandez, but if this trade happens, baseball has to address Jeffry Loria and his ownership of that franchise and do a comprehensive top to bottom analysis of what’s best for them and the city. It’s beyond disgraceful the way things are handled year to year in Miami, not to mention they have a state of the art, brand new stadium that has yet to have a winner on the field and at the same time is being financed by the taxpayers. Miami not only deserves a winner, there is absolutely no reason under their perpetual sun they can’t have one. It’s a terrific market with a lot of money and diversity and city that actually wants a baseball team. Disgraceful.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 1 Reaction

I love the winter meetings.


There is likely more activity in the three or four days of the meetings than the rest of the entire winter. Granted, a lot of the big contracts will probably signed closer to Christmas, or soon thereafter, but the groundwork for those deals is usually laid this time of year and then a lot of trades go down as a byproduct of a lot of those talks.


It’s almost your appetizer to Spring Training.


So without much further ado, I want to react to day 1 (yes, I know I’m very late).


My day 1 highlights:


Wade Miley to Seattle for RP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias.


This deal caught my eye.


The ballpark in Seattle is huge. It’s a hitters nightmare and a pitchers paradise. Miley struggled mightily in Boston this last year. (He wasn’t the only one of course)


But in previous years in Arizona, Miley was a solid pitcher, throwing to a 3.79 ERA but a 4+ ERA last year in Boston.


I think Miley bounces back in Seattle.


For the Red Sox, they continue to bolster their bullpen by adding Smith who had a terrific year in Seattle. He’ll likely set up the recently acquired Craig Kimbrel.


But I’m not sure what to think on Roenis Elias. I really like this guy.


Cuban lefty with filthy stuff. My issue is Elias has always had a notoriously high WHIP and BABIP. (Career 1.30 WHIP, .290 BABIP). Part of my fondness with him was also the fact he played in a very hitter friendly ballpark. But then I went back and looked, Elias actually had a better ERA away from SafeCo than he did there.


That surprised me and made me wonder if perhaps he can succeed in Boston but in a league full of hitters parks (Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium and Fenway), I do have my doubts.


The upside for Elias is he can strike out a ton of guys. He struggles with control but when he’s on, he is unhittable.


I’ll wait and see before I say I don’t like him in Boston.


A couple left-handed we had thought were on the move yesterday ultimately didn’t go anywhere. It’s obvious the off-field troubles recently for Aroldis Chapman are holding back his trade value.


I thought early in the day, we were going to see Scott Kazmir sign in Kansas City. From everything I’ve seen so far, there is a ton of interest in him. I like Kazmir but I think the ballpark he will ultimately throw in is what is going to make him valuable for me. I think he needs a hitters park where he can get guys to put the ball in play. He’s becoming less and less of a strikeout pitcher and is going to have rely on guys putting the ball in play.


Alright, I have to address Jason Heyward.


I’ve watched Jason Heyward from the day he came to the big leagues with hype equal to probably Mike Trout. I don’t think that is a stretch. People loved this guy.


And after one season in St. Louis, the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase is ready to pay this man like he’s Trout or Bryce Harper.


Friends, I don’t mince words when I talk about Jason Heyward; the man is overrated.


I can admit he was one of the better outfielders in baseball this past year. He was. There’s no question.


But here’s the thing folks: It was a walk year for him. He was playing for the next contract.


How many guys have we seen in that scenario with a huge walk year? The names are endless. Carlos Beltran. Jayson Werth. Johnny Damon. Jason Bay. Matt Holliday.  Just to name a few.


Guys get paid after they have a big year. And that’s fine. That’s what they are supposed to do: cash in.


But let’s not act like Jason Heyward has turned the corner, because quite honestly, that line is worn out on this baseball guy.


I’ve seen Heyward have months that he looks like an MVP and I’ve thought to myself, “my God, if this guy does this until September, he’s the unanimous MVP”.


But he NEVER has!


His splits month to month every year are drastic.


I put out yesterday Heyward’s OPS year to year and it totally epitomizes what the man is all about: Inconsistency.


But let’s not make OPS to be the ultimate definition of his success. What does Jason Heyward do well?


He doesn’t strike out. I don’t think any team will says they don’t like that about him.


His glove is tremendous. As evidenced by his three Gold Gloves. Again, no team is going to say they don’t like that about him.


He runs the bases incredibly well.

One statistic I have recently come across I really like is weighted runs created, or wRC.


I feel like wRC is a great way of quantifying how a player impacts the game beyond their traditional stat line. And when it comes down to it, Jason Heyward just isn’t elite.


Last year, in one of his best years as a pro, he wasn’t even top 25, in fact he was 39th.


Cardinals fans want to argue, well maybe he’s turned the corner. Well it’s because he plays in St. Louis.


I never argue with the metaphysical philosophy that because a guy plays in St. Louis, his level of play will automatically rise.


Until now.


It just won’t happen with Jason Heyward.


My personal belief is: if the Cardinals are the team to give this guy the $150-million he is seeking, this fan base will be tired of him by year two. They’ll forgive a down year off the big contract, but by June or July, of 2017, you’ll see what I’m talking about.


I know where I stand with Heyward. I’ve watched him. Being a Mets fan, you know I’ve watched him. I’ve tracked him. I’m not surprised he surpassed his career averages in almost every statistical category after a year in St. Louis. It was as predictable as the sun rising.


But again, to me, he’s a product of being in a walk year. Not a new environment.


I think, wherever he ends up, we see Heyward regress to the Heyward of old, and not the one-year Cardinal-wonder Heyward.


This has nothing to do with the Winter Meetings, just some baseball tidbits I put out yesterday.


  • In 2015, Noah Syndergaard became the second rookie pitcher in MLB history with at least 160 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks in a season.
    • So basically the kid throws 100 MPH will pinpoint control. When he figures out how to limit his H/9 (better pitch selection/getting ahead in the count more consistently) it's all over.
  • Jacob deGrom's 2015 FIP went up from 2.67 in '14 to a whopping 2.70 in '15. Simply put: young blood is going to be here for a long time.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

40 Man Roster Day, Andrew Benintendi & Alex Guerrero & Yasiel Puig

Baseball will be buzzing in the next few weeks as the Rule 5 draft approaches along with the winter meetings right around the corner.

So with all that said, I was pretty locked into the baseball yesterday and I'll share a lot of my findings today.

  • I'll start with 40 man roster additions from Friday.

Three names I'm excited about being added?

Michael Fulmer - DET RHP
Brandon Nimmo - NYM OF

I've written about all three in some capacity in the last few years and while it was unintentional, I the amount of excitement I have is in the order they're listed.

Here's a recent ditty I did on Fulmer:

I said after the Yoenis Cespedes trade happened, Michael Fulmer would be the #Tigers top prospect going into 2016. (PSSSST I was right)

He will likely start the year in the bullpen but I would bet the ranch he ends the season as their best starting pitcher.

FYI: Fulmer is from Oklahoma. Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley were the two guys in the 2011 draft with all the hype but Fulmer was an under the radar first rounder.

Come this time next year, we might be talking about Detroit's ace for years to come.

  • Eddie Martinez

The Cubs decisions about where guys fit is only going to get tougher in the next couple years.

Cuban prospect Eddie Martinez will be nothing short of special and in a crowded outfield, the question isn't will he fit, but who will move to make him fit?

  • Andrew Benintendi

RedSox prospect Andrew Benintendi (LH OF) will be the real deal. The Arkansas product gives you a little bit of everything offensively and conceivably has no weaknesses.

Not far away from being in Boston (or somewhere else if the Red Sox choose to move him).

In his first taste of professional baseball, the kid walked more than he struck out (34/24 BB/K) and hit 7 HR with 7 SB.

I'm no Red Sox fan, but I can't wait to see what this young man can do.

  • Alex Guerrero/Yasiel Puig

Guerrero turned 29 Friday; rejuvenating the anger in me that he went from utility full time player and one of the National League’s best hitters to so deep on the bench, in the last three months of the season grew barely got the amount of at bats he got in April and May.

On top of that, the Dodgers continue to be a clown show.

It came out Friday, the daddy of one of their part time players goes to the media claiming Clayton Kershaw is lobbying for the trade if Yasiel Puig.

I have so many issues on this front. I like the Dodgers and think they can be such a dominant franchise, but this kind of garbage just leaves me wondering all too often, what exactly is happening in Los Angeles?

But to wrap up my Guerrero thought; I'm really hoping the front office of LA finds loving homes for Puig and Guerrero because I think their talents are left beyond unappreciated in the City of Angels.

I'll be honest, as a Mets fan, I'd send a nice package of players the Dodgers way for these two, and, no it wouldn't include The Big 4 pitchers.

  • Paul DeJong

If you follow me on twitter or instagram, you know I love me some Paul DeJong.

The ISU product finally cracked the Cardinals mlb.com/pipeline top prospect list at no. 30.

DeJong is a one size fits all fielder that has the bat to play major league baseball.

He's another guy that doesn't strike out (52/29 K/BB) and again, does a little of everything. (9 HR, 13 SB)

Talking w/ folks at ISU, he was a walk on who earned everything he got. I don't know about anyone else, but THAT'S the guy I want on my team.

I'm no Cardinals fan, but I'm rooting for him.

Just a few final thoughts…

  • Guy that flew up the Yankees top prospect list this last year? James Kaprielian. Finished the summer at Low-A and the 3 NYY post-season prospect, after being drafted in June.

    I can't say I'd be surprised if this UCLA product ended up the Bronx Bombers 'pen in September with a rotation spot in 2017. Gonna be a very good player.

  • It's time for Mariners OF prospect Austin Wilson to establish himself. Will be 24 and hasn't played past A-ball. Very toolsy player I watched at Stanford and thought had a lot of promise. I'll be rooting for him too next year.

  • For being a power hitter, Marlins 1B Justin Bour's 101 Ks in 2015 was very impressive. Believe it or not, Bour was top 10 in the NL among 1B in SLG, OPS, & HR.

  • One thing the 2017 Atlanta Braves are going to do is keep teams off the board. The biggest question though is can they, themselves, get on the board?

Happy holidays friends!

Monday, November 2, 2015

Mets Pitching, Curtis Granderson & Daniel Murphy

I haven’t had much of a chance to sit down and do this and I’ll be honest, I’m pretty flattered a lot of friends/people have been curious of my take on the World Series. So here it is.


First of all, the aspect of the entire month of October I’ve been disappointed with (from a baseball standpoint) was the showing the Mets had in the World Series. I didn’t for one second think the Mets deserved to win, considering the way they played, but at the same time, I felt their play was a supremely subpar to how well they had played since the trade deadline.


That said, I am in no other way disappointed with the outcome. I am not mad. I’m not pissed. I sat back and watched the World Series from the standpoint of: this is far beyond what I could have ever imagined the 2015 Mets doing, and for them to get to where they were was nothing short of fun.

I enjoyed watching them on a national stage. It was funny, as I’m watching, if I had stuff going on around me, I’d take the time when they were hitting to take care chores.


Maybe I’m not nuts, but I have often found most people want to see their team’s hit. I wanted to watch these young pitchers, specifically, Steven Matz, who I hadn’t seen much of in the big leagues.


I have to admit, once it came down to Chicago/New York and Toronto/Kansas City, I really didn’t care who won the World Series.


I’m not the biggest Blue Jays fan, so had the Mets faced them, I might have been a little more emotional, but for the most part, watching the Royals win was not the worst thing I’ve ever been through.

Anyone who knows me, knows I’ve been a huge fan of Salvador Perez, before he was this big start with KC.


I like the Royals as a franchise. I love that ballpark. I don’t mind guys like Moustakas and Hosmer and Gordon. I guess I don’t dislike them, but I wouldn’t ever consider them among my favorite players. That’s no knock on them. They’re terrific talents, I’m just saying, I have other players I root for more prominently.


But Sal Perez for several years now has been my guy.


I love watching him catch a ballgame and swing the bat. To watch him win the title and the MVP of the World Series was very cool.


I’m happy for the Royals and their fans. Terrific fans. Some of the best in my opinion.

But my reaction for the Mets is simply this: The Mets far exceeded my expectations this year and I won’t complain about much.


In fact, I don’t do this often, but I’ll rave about the young pitchers. I’ve thought this from the time they clinched the Dodgers series, and then the Cubs series really reinforced it.


If the Mets simply get in over the next 5-7 years, they are going to be one of the toughest outs in all of baseball and it all comes down to their five pitchers. Yes, five. Forget not they have Zack Wheeler, a (once) top 10 prospect, who’s currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery.

I find that extremely exciting.


I have to admit, I wasn’t a fan of the Mets bringing on Curtis Granderson a few years ago, but I’ll say this, if he wasn’t on this team, we probably are nowhere near the postseason, let alone the World Series.

To me, he earned every penny of that contract.


Prior to the Yoenis Cespedes trade, Granderson was the glue guy on this team. His numbers may not reflect it, but this may have been the most impressive year of his career because of how he carried this team on his back from April to the trade deadline.


Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2004 23 DET AL 9 28 25 2 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 8 .240 .321 .360 .681 9 0 0 0 0 /8
2005 24 DET AL 47 174 162 18 44 6 3 8 20 1 1 10 43 .272 .314 .494 .808 80 0 2 0 0 87
2006 25 DET AL 159 679 596 90 155 31 9 19 68 8 5 66 174 .260 .335 .438 .773 261 4 7 6 0 *8
2007 26 DET AL 158 676 612 122 185 38 23 23 74 26 1 52 141 .302 .361 .552 .913 338 5 5 2 3 *8/7 MVP-10
2008 27 DET AL 141 629 553 112 155 26 13 22 66 12 4 71 111 .280 .365 .494 .858 273 3 1 1 1 *8
2009 ★ 28 DET AL 160 710 631 91 157 23 8 30 71 20 6 72 141 .249 .327 .453 .780 286 2 3 2 4 *8 AS
2010 29 NYY AL 136 528 466 76 115 17 7 24 67 12 2 53 116 .247 .324 .468 .792 218 2 4 3 3 *8
2011 ★ 30 NYY AL 156 691 583 136 153 26 10 41 119 25 10 85 169 .262 .364 .552 .916 322 12 4 7 0 *8/D AS,MVP-4,SS
2012 ★ 31 NYY AL 160 684 596 102 138 18 4 43 106 10 3 75 195 .232 .319 .492 .811 293 5 1 7 4 *8/D AS
2013 32 NYY AL 61 245 214 31 49 13 2 7 15 8 2 27 69 .229 .317 .407 .723 87 1 2 1 1 8D97
2014 33 NYM NL 155 654 564 73 128 27 2 20 66 8 2 79 141 .227 .326 .388 .714 219 6 0 5 1 *987
2015 34 NYM NL 157 682 580 98 150 33 2 26 70 11 6 91 151 .259 .364 .457 .821 265 7 0 4 3 *9/8D
12 Yrs 1499 6380 5582 951 1435 259 84 263 742 141 42 684 1459 .257 .341 .475 .816 2651 47 29 38 20
162 Game Avg. 162 689 603 103 155 28 9 28 80 15 5 74 158 .257 .341 .475 .816 286 5 3 4 2
DET (6 yrs) 674 2896 2579 435 702 125 57 102 299 67 17 274 618 .272 .344 .484 .828 1247 14 18 11 8
NYY (4 yrs) 513 2148 1859 345 455 74 23 115 307 55 17 240 549 .245 .335 .495 .829 920 20 11 18 8
NYM (2 yrs) 312 1336 1144 171 278 60 4 46 136 19 8 170 292 .243 .345 .423 .768 484 13 0 9 4
AL (10 yrs) 1187 5044 4438 780 1157 199 80 217 606 122 34 514 1167 .261 .340 .488 .828 2167 34 29 29 16
NL (2 yrs) 312 1336 1144 171 278 60 4 46 136 19 8 170 292 .243 .345 .423 .768 484 13 0 9 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2015.


As great as he was in the postseason, the Mets cannot bring Daniel Murphy back. Murph’s performance in the NLDS and NLCS will never, ever be forgotten by me. When, or if, I ever see him in a big league ballpark, I will cheer for him. I will clap and applaud when he does well. But he cannot come back to this team if he wants more than the qualifying offer the Mets reportedly plan to offer him.


Now, again, if it wasn’t for Murphy, the Mets are probably playing five or six, hell even seven games with the Cubs, and who knows how things are going down.


And again, I will never, ever forget what Daniel Murphy did and what he meant to this team. It’s tough to say those things, but it’s the reality of the situation.
I want to say for the record, I had no issue with Terry Collins going back to Harvey in the ninth. I would have done the same thing. He's earned that spot. He had earned the right to go back out. I would have done the same thing.

Lorenzo Cain had a great at bat. That breaking ball on 3-2 he knew was coming and finally laid off. I thought he made the one bad pitch to Hosmer, which as we know, was the straw that broke the camels back.

I knew when Hosmer drove in Cain, the Royals were going to win the game.

Again, not mad. Not even disappointed. Just a little disheartened.

I so badly wanted to hype up the Mets pitching train that is deGrom, Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz and probably in full force in 2017, Zack Wheeler. But I honestly didn’t want to wear out my social media friends, specifically on Facebook. So I kept relatively quiet.


Additionally, I just wanted to watch the games and have fun seeing my team actually enjoy success.

As a Mets fan, these types of teams and these types of runs are just so rare. I didn’t want to get all up in arms about them losing or winning. I just wanted to have fun seeing.


I felt I did that. And it was a blast. I was sad to see it end. But I wasn’t upset either that their opponents were winners once again.


I look back after that game 7 loss to St. Louis in 2006, and I remember it like it was yesterday, Carlos Beltran saying, “We’ll have another chance. We’ll get back here. I have no doubt.”

Well if anything, history has told us it’s so hard to get back. Which is why I enjoyed what I was witnessing.


BUT… I think the Mets have a great foundation for getting to the postseason, if not the World Series. And I won’t ever say we’ll definitely be back. But, I really think they are in a position that it would not shock anyone if they’re there a few more times in the next five years.

Again, if they just get in, those pitchers are good enough to carry them through.