I look at the Cincinnati Reds and I think, this isn’t a half bad team, and while there’s a lot to like about Cincinnati, there’s a lot to be concerned about.
Obviously, you like Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier. But one guy I think is going to have a big season in the Queen City is Marlon Byrd.
Coming over from Philly, Byrd has gone for 20 or better homers three consecutive years despite his. In the cracker jack box of Great American Ballpark, I think Byrd has another big year and should be a huge key for their success. If Byrd sticks around in Cincinnati for the whole year, and other guys like Votto and Hamilton have better seasons’ than last year, I think Byrd could be one of the unsung heros of this squad.
It obviously goes without saying Joey Votto has to bounce back. At age 31, I just don’t see him going back to the 30 home run guy he was a few years ago. I expect Votto to hit for a very healthy average, have good gap to gap power, but his power should decline. What you like about, his OPB and walks have significantly improved from early in his career. Votto has decent protection in this lineup that he will get to hit, but he may also see his fair share of walks. Where Cincinnati ends up in the standing this year, starts and ends with Joey Votto.
Another guy that needs a better 2015 is Brandon Phillips. DatDude has started a regression the last few years after stellar years as an All-Star caliber player. To me, if you can get an improvement to .275, maybe a .315-.320 OBP and 15 homers, to me that’s acceptable.
To me, the X-factor in this lineup is Billy Hamilton. I cannot say I was surprised he hit only .250 last year. I wasn’t big on him, and still am not, but, I do believe Hamilton is in for a bounce back 2015. Only a .298 OBP, that is a number that absolutely has to improve. An encouraging number that has me believing Hamilton could be on track for an improvement in 2015 is his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) from 2014. He BABIP was .304. When that number is 50 points better than your batting average, it tells me Hamilton was the result of some bad luck last year. In addition to that, his line drive rate was 25%, which is well above the league average.
However, on the flipside of that argument, Hamilton’s bad luck could be attributed to failed bunt attempts. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but, it is a valid argument. I think Hamilton has bring tha batting average and OBP up. I think hitting line drives at the rate he does will allow him to change his luck.
Last year, if you read my 2014 Reds piece, I totally called Mesoraco’s breakout season, and what’s even better about it, he was hurt for part of the year. Being a catcher, it’s hard to predict Mesoraco won’t get hurt, but, the promising thing is, you now know Mesoraco can do it at the big league level. He’s got it. I’m hesitant to say he’ll have as big of a year as last year, but I point to Mesoraco’s absolutely astronomical 29% line drive rate. That is an ungodly number and I think it is indicative Mesoraco isn’t trying to crush every pitch he sees. Watching him at the plate last year, his approach was very sound.
I think Mesoraco repeats as a 25 HR guy and is going to quickly be regarded as one of the top offensive catchers in the league.
My concerns with the Reds pitching staff starts and ends with the pitching. I know Johnny Cueto was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and I’m not concerned his arm is just going to completely fall off, but it has to be asked? How does Cueto respond to throwing the most innings in his career? If Cueto can stay healthy, can he duplicate to a certain degree, that performance?
Again, I’m not saying his ERA is going to jump to the mid-fours or his strikeouts will come down by a ridiculous 40% or something, but these are all reasonable questions, and to be truthful, I think Cueto regresses.
I think a sub-3 ERA is still very reasonable given his track record, but I think four complete games was a lot and 34 starts, 243 innings was tough and put a lot of mileage on an arm that’s already got a lot of mileage on it. The last time Cueto had a performance like that was 2012, and if you’ll recall he spend 2013 battling injuries.
To me, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey aren’t anything special. 3.7-something ERAs isn’t great but it isn’t bad. What you like about them is they are very steady, as both are perennial 200 inning pitchers. Neither has ever won 15 games and to me, if you want to win, you need 2 and 3 starters to win 15 games. After the “big three” for Cincinnati, I have serious concerns.
I think the Reds cashed in on Alfredo Simon at the right time. I don’t think he could repeat what he did in Cincinnati.
I also think losing Matt Latos was a big loss, on the field. I know there's been grumblings of him being a clubhouse cancer, but the bottom line was the guy could pitch. I think they sorely miss him in 2015 and I think Florida gets a quality, veteran arm to add to their growing stellar rotation.
Again, without question, Chapman is one of the league’s elite closers, so you know you have that anchor in the back end of your bullpen, but this bullpen looks bad. It doesn’t look and if these starters can’t deliver, the Reds are in trouble.
On the opposite end of that argument, bullpens are such a crapshoot, you just never know. Just like anyone in baseball, you could have a bunch of no name 33-year old career journey minor leaguers in your ‘pen, and you could end up with the best bullpen in baseball. It’s such a game of chance, you cannot predict what those guys are going to do.
In past year’s, I’ve been in on the Reds, buying into what they’re selling. I’m done with that. To me, the Reds never lived up to expectations, and I’m not talking about 90 win seasons, but deep playoff runs. I think they have plenty of good pieces in place, but to get this team past the rising Cubs, the perennial contenders in Pittsburgh and St. Louis, and to get past the resurgent Brewers is a tall task, and I don’t think they’re up for it.
