2014 Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

For the Cincinnati Reds, the past four years can almost be characterized as a two steps forward, one step back.

After 15 year absence from the postseason, the Reds dominate the National League’s Central Division, and make a triumphant return to October play, only to be swept out by the Phillies. 2011, the Reds miss everything, and don’t even make it to the postseason. 2012, the Reds return to their 2010 form, dominate the division, finish a game back of the resurgent Nationals for baseball’s best overall record. They take two-games to none lead over the Giants in the Divisional Series, and drop three straight, and a season for the ages goes down the drain. 2013, the Reds were less than stellar in the division with baseball’s biggest surprise ( the Pittsburgh Pirates) and the eventual National League Champions and World Series runner up (the St. Louis Cardinals), but they still made the playoffs before getting knocked out in the one game, winner-take-all Wild Card game.

Will 2014 be that two steps forward? 

My gut tells me no, but I’ll tell you why they can do it, and why they can’t do.

First, why they can.

The Reds boast one of baseball’s most balanced lineups. Joey Votto might be the best player on the east side of the Mississippi River, but the mainstream media refuses to really recognize that. Coming off, arguably, what could be considered one of his worst seasons’ as a pro, Votto hit only (I say only because it’s Joey Votto) .305, struck out a career high 138 times, and drove in the second lowest amount of runs in his career (73), barely besting his 2012 career low (56). But, he still mashed 24 homers, played in every single game of the season (that in itself is remarkable), and managed a sixth place finish in what was a wide-open MVP vote in the NL.

The Reds also feature one of the games best, and in my opinion, under the radar sluggers, Jay Bruce. Bruce definitely benefits from a very hitter friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, but it’s not like Bruce is a cheap home run hitter. Bruce’s home run home/road splits are almost 50/50. Meaning, he boasts a lot of power no matter the park he’s in. Bruce is starting to come into his own as a big league hitter, going for 30 homers for three straight years now, and I can’t say I see him slowing down.

One of baseball’s top prospects for many years now finally gets a chance to showcase his talent consistently. No, I’m not talking about Billy Hamilton. I’m talking about Devin Mesoraco. To me, the struggles of this talented kid have been the absolutely bone-headed, and mindless decision making of Dusty Baker. (In case you couldn’t tell via the tone text doesn’t allow, I’m not a Dusty Baker fan) Mesoraco could be one of the league’s top catching power bats, I’d argue up there with Wilin Rosario from Colorado and Brian McCann now in New York. It is unbelievable to me this guy was sharing catching duties with a second rate catcher for two and and a half seasons before finally getting fully committed to about a quarter of the way through the season last year, as he finally broke the 100 game mark. To me, there is no reason a guy of his caliber behind the plate and with the bat shouldn’t have been playing in more games sooner. Is it too late for Mesoraco to come around? Has Baker’s utter stupidity and inability to handle young players ruined what could have been a brilliant career for this guy? I don’t think so, but I won’t say it hasn’t. I think Mesoraco is in a great position to finally show Reds fans his true talents, and in a park like Great American, I think he has the ability to break out. And I think he does with a 20-25 homer season.

I didn’t even mention Brandon Phillips, who’s been as good of a second basemen as the National League has seen in recent memory. I also like Todd Frazier at third. I think he’s an underrated hot corner guy who definitely struggled last year, but I think he’s on his way to a decent career and could have a very nice 2014.

One of the other great parts of the Reds is, despite pitching in a band box, the Reds really do have a great pitching staff. A Reds pitcher is rarely going to go for a Cy Young, again, simply because of the hitter friendly ballpark they play in, but they have some legit arms. And while the two no-hitters Homer Bailey has thrown are definitely impressive, of course, Johnny Cueto is a great arm, but to me, one guy they throw out that many times goes unnoticed is Matt Latos. His ERA and strikeout numbers may not ever be tops in the league, but his consistency, to me, makes him the ace of this staff. Since he’s been in Cincinnati, he has logged 200 innings in both seasons, he’s won 14 games twice, he’s improved his ERA, home runs, and walks. At just 26 years old and with one arbitration year remaining, the Reds need to lock this guy up if they want a legitimate ace on their staff for years to come.

One guy that really broke on the scene last year, and never really got fully committed to because of the injury battles of Johnny Cueto was Tony Cingrani. The lefty out of Rice was in and out of the rotation almost all season, posting a stellar 2.92 ERA. Cingrani should, and most likely will get a shot at a back end of the rotation spot on this staff, and while I don’t expect him to post a sub-3 ERA, he could easily win 15 games and be a great number-two option behind Latos, or even a three starter if Cueto can stay healthy.

And of course, one of the biggest reasons the Reds find themselves successful is the laser-rocket left arm they have in the ninth inning of any game within five runs. Aroldis Chapman has established himself as one of the game’s elite closers, boasting some of the nastiest pitches eyes have ever seen. That’s about all you can say about that. Chapman is as lights out as they come.

Now for why they can’t.

Last season, the Reds were fortunate enough to nab one of baseball most underrated outfielders for a thrift store price. Shin-Soo Choo, almost unarguably, is one of baseball’s most efficient hitters. A career .288 hitter with an on-base percentage of .389, Choo had one of his best seasons in the one year he was in Cincinnati. A lot of people thought he would be a big reason why this team would return to the postseason as one of the game’s best, and Choo certainly did his part, and his almost inevitable departure is going to be a big loss for Cincinnati. I for one quite frankly think it’s going to be a loss they may not see the full effects of until August and September.

Now, their replacement for Choo in the lineup is going to be one of the highly touted prospects in baseball, Billy Hamilton. Fans, scouts, and obviously those within the Reds organization love Billy Hamilton. I’m not one. Yes, Hamilton has elite speed and can steal a base off anyone at any time, and I don’t disregard the effect his speed could have on a game. Not one bit.

While as he progressed through the minor leagues, his stolen base totals increased, that’s the one thing everyone sees. But there’s one thing fans, scouts and coaches just don’t want to look at, and that’s his on-base percentage. After all, you have to get on base to steal right? Let’s look closer at Hamilton.

Hamilton dominated the lower levels of the minor leagues. Dominated. He was getting on base more than four times in ten plate appearances. But, those numbers are all at the lower levels, we’re talking A-ball, low-A ball, and high-A ball. Now, while his strikeout numbers at a few of his stops were inordinately high, that doesn’t bother me because a lot of young players strike out a lot at that level. So no big deal. But as Hamilton continued to move up, his on-base percentages dropped, going from .439 at it’s peak to .343 at triple-A last year. Now, those are great numbers, not a doubt about that. But what concerns me is the Reds are going to ask this kid to likely lead off for them. In a very small; and small is being generous; sample size in late 2013, Hamilton did well, going 7-19 with 13 stolen bases and nine runs (highlighted by a stolen base off all-world catcher Yadier Molina, which I don’t think Reds fans have let Cardinals fans forget).

But what concerns me is, what is Billy Hamilton going to do over a full season? He will be facing pitchers that are much, much better than what he ever saw in the minor leagues. He will be seeing Gold Glove caliber third basemen on a consist basis, i.e. Matt Carpenter, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, etc. Will bunting for hits be as effective as it was when he was the best player on the field for several years? It will be to a degree, you’re going to get the weak handed guys like Pedro Alvarez and Aramis Ramirez to make bad throws, or no throws at all. But you also have to consider pitchers are going to know he’s going to be bunting, and adjust their pitches accordingly. I don’t think Hamilton will see as many fastballs any longer. He’s going to be tempted to chase a lot of bad pitches all for the sake of a simple one-base hit.

I’m not saying Hamilton is going to be bunting for hits every time up, obviously there’s going to be those situational at-bats, and of course at bats with two outs, etc. How will he handle those? I’m positive he’s going to get his share of hits, and will extend long singles to doubles, long doubles to triples, and I can’t say I’d be surprised if he takes the occasional inside the park home run; though his extra base-hit numbers through his minor league career were average, and digressed as he moved up. All that to say, Hamilton is going to have to up his game. Is he up to it? I have my doubts. I think the Reds are going to find Billy Hamilton is an inadequate replacement to the man they got on the cheap in Shin-Soo Choo.

And before Reds fans go killing me, I recognize this team couldn’t have kept Choo, he was a one-year rental. I realize all that. I also recognize the fact, Billy Hamilton is a tremendous talent. But he’s a one trick pony. You’re getting zero power from him. He’ll be lucky to hit five homers on the season. You get average defense at best from him. Unless he’s on base, he’s of average value to a lineup.

The other major concern I have about this team is Johnny Cueto. Cueto is another guy with tremendous ability. The Reds want him to be an ace, which he can be, but Cueto struggles to stay in the rotation, and when he’s there. To me, an ace goes 200 innings year after year. Matt Latos has done that. He’s an ace to me. An ace makes 30 starts or better, year after year. Cueto has done that once in the last three years (all playoff years as well for Cincinnati). When Cueto is healthy, he is one of the best arms in the National League Central, if not the National League. If Cueto can find himself making 30 starts this year and go for just 175-190 innings, that would be great and an almost improvement from recent years, but I think the Reds would like to see him go 200 innings or better with that sub-3 ERA.

Overall, the Reds on paper are a solid ball club. They are in a tougher division than what the NL Central has been in since 2005. A lot of clubs are better than they’ve been for some time, the Reds aren’t going to steamroll anyone, but if they can find some consistency, they will certainly be a force to be reckoned with.