Tuesday, March 4, 2014

2014 Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

I look at the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers, and I like what I see.


When I first started putting together my power rankings, I was almost completely under the assumption they would be in the bottom five teams. But the more I looked at them and stacked them up with the rest of the league, I quickly changed my mind.


While there is a lot to like about the Brewers, there is also not a lot to like about them. What I don’t like about them is second base. Rickie Weeks is quickly digressing, and while Scooter Gennett has hit in every level of the minor leagues, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate to the big leagues. I’m not saying he won’t hit. In fact, watching the small sample of him towards the end of last year, I do like the way he plays the game.


I’m not sure yet what I make of Juan Francisco. He had a good start to his time in Atlanta last year, and then dropped off quickly. When he came to Milwaukee, he didn’t hit for much average, in fact, he didn’t hit for an average at all. But he did hit with decent power. If he can up his average, keep the power numbers close to what they were last year, and play in 125-150 games, that will be a great left-handed bat in a very right handed heavy lineup.


One guy I'm not sure of for this season is Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez is quickly declining as he gets older. Ramirez will turn 36 years old this summer. Since he came of a great contract year in Chicago in 2011, Ramirez has played well in Milwaukee. I can’t say he hasn't. His numbers say he’s been very good, especially for what they brought him in to be, which was a gap-filler to the departure of Prince Fielder. But when you look at his numbers, there has been an obvious decline in production. While a .300 average down to .283 isn't a great drop off, it’s undoubtedly a drop. One thing I will say about Ramirez that could prove me wrong, is he’s in a contract year once again, and anyone who knows me, knows I love guys in contract years. Meaning they are notorious for having big seasons.


Now for what I like, nay, love about the Brew Crew: The bats.


Like it or not, Ryan Braun returns to this lineup and should be inserted right into that three-hole, and the guys he’ll have around him will be very good as well.


Jonathan Lucroy really began his establishment as an everyday hitter in the latter part of 2012, and then continued that into last season, after he nearly hit 20 bombs. But what’s all the more impressive about Lucroy, is he’s one of those catchers who’s proven to be rather durable. He played in just short of 100 games in 2012, then managed to play in 147 games in 2013. That is a great number for a catcher. Lucroy is a rather quiet, but imposing presence in this lineup.


Depending on how Ron Roenicke decides to situate his lineup, I would expect Carlos Gomez to have another big year. If I had a guess, Gomez will spend most days in the five-spot with Gennett to hit second, after Segura. Again, Roenicke may decide Gennett may be better served at the bottom of the line up given this could be his first full season of pro ball, thus moving Gomez to the 2-hole. But I think no matter where Gomez is placed, he has another outstanding year.


I know I said I think Ramirez could be in for a bit of a dropoff in 2014, the mere fact he’s an established big league hitter will force opposing pitchers to continue to respect him in the middle of the order.


I would expect Francisco to likely hit in the seven spot, but because he’s a left-handed bat, he may move up from time to time.


Now for the pitching rotation.


I know the two guys at the front of the rotation aren’t you typical 1-2 starters, but a Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza combination I think is tremendous. Lohse is almost an ageless wonder, at age 35. He continues to get the job done.


I have to admit, I was a bit surprised Milwaukee went out and got Matt Garza. I really thought he would end up going to a contender, but on a very favorable 4-year deal, I think Garza should help the Brewers maintain until they can get some solid young pitchers built up in their minor league system.


In the short term, I really like the Garza/Lohse combination. The two are very similar pitchers, and what’s even better, is teaming them with a vet like Yovanni Gallardo, they should great mentors to promising young right handers, Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg. While on the surface, it may not seem like it, I think the Brewers have a very competitive rotation that could make them a sneaky Wild Card candidate throughout the year.


I think the questionable right side of the infield for Milwaukee, along with a question mark in left field in Khris Davis leaves Milwaukee with enough holes they may not have quite enough to compete in the National League Central, but I think the foundation is there for them to be sneaky good, which I do think they will be. Thus my favorable 19th ranking.

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