The window of opportunity for the Detroit Tigers is closing, but there’s no reason in a wide open American League why the Tigers can’t come out on top.
The Tigers feature the game’s most elite sluggers and one of the game’s top pitchers, who together, have kept Detroit towards the top of the American League the last three years. And while Detroit’s stars and role players continue to age, their experience and effectiveness continues to allow them to continue to contend not just in the American League Central, but the American League.
The highlighted newcomer for Detroit this year, Ian Kinsler certainly made his entrance to Detroit very interesting, bashing his former owner and GM in Texas, and making zero friends for the future in the process. In Detroit though, his welcome should be welcome. Kinsler is one of the real hustle players of baseball. His numbers are always solid, and what I really like is his on base percentage. He’s going to have big shoes to fill, essentially, replacing Prince Fielder in this Tigers lineup everyday. Kinsler likely won’t match the on base percentage of Prince Fielder, because Prince walked so much more, but I think Detroit will actually be better to have in the lineup than Prince. When you look at the extra base hits and runs scored for the two stars, Kinsler’s doubles and obviously triples are higher than Fielder’s, and the run scored by Kinsler aren’t even close. Kinsler’s speed, ability to get around the bases is something I think Detroit will definitely benefit from this year. How much of an effect does this have on a team that won close to 100 games the past few years? I don’t know, but I think in the postseason, it should play huge dividends. Speed doesn’t slump as they say, and in the playoffs, Fielder was almost non-existent for Detroit last year. If Detroit can get back to the ALCS, I think Kinsler is better to have in the lineup.
The other new mainstay Detroit will offer up will be top prospect Nick Castellanos. In limited action at the end of the 2013 season, we only got a glimpse of what Castellanos is all about, but this is a kid that tore through the minor leagues. Castellanos was drafted out of high school, and give the average amount of time it takes for kids to reach the big league level, he did it rather fast. And he did it because of his bat. Castellano is an all around solid hitter. He likely won’t ever win a home run title, he could win a batting title, but Castellano will do a lot of what Ian Kinsler does. He’ll get on base, he’ll hustle his way around the bases, and he will score plenty of runs. Castellanos doesn’t strike out a lot, which means he has great discipline, which has translated into a great on-base percentage in the minor leagues. It’s always hard to tell what these first year top prospects are going to do, but I do think the solid approach Castellanos brings should allow him to have immediate success in Detroit.
The other parts of this Detroit lineup I like is that balance. After a breakout year in 2012, Austin Jackson followed that up with another solid year. Jackson should be at the top of the order with Kinsler, and together, this duo should do a great job of setting the table for Miguel Cabrera, Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. It goes without saying, you know what you’re going to get from Miguel Cabrera, so let’s talk about the other two big sticks, Martinez and Hunter.
Martinez’s 2013 was very solid after an entire year out of baseball. I called Carlos Beltran the best hitter north of the age of 35, and Martinez who turned 35 in December, isn’t far behind Beltran. I heard chatter early in spring training of VMart catching this year, and that really scares. Being a former catcher, I’m sure first year manager Brad Ausmus has a plan on how often he’s going to put him behind the plate, but if you’re going to count on having Martinez for over 130 or so games, I think his time behind the plate has got to be limited. VMart can be a .300 hitter and provide 15 to 20 homers still in his career, and I think catching him too often could put him at greater risk for injury. I think VMart is in for another solid year and helps keep the Tigers atop this division, and the American League.
After many productive years in an Angels uniform, many question how much Torii Hunter had left in the tank at 37 years old. Well Hunter came over and played like he was 27. Hunter was terrific and a big reason the Tigers returned the ALCS last October. At 38, getting ready to turn 39, Hunter is another hitter north of the age 35 that can make major contributions for his club. I think Hunter may continue to regress simply because of the age, but his experience and attitude make him a must have in Detroit. If Detroit can get another 15-20 home runs and around a .280 average, that will be plenty for these Tigers.
Of course, when you can put out one of the league’s top pitchers for the past three years, you’re going to have a lot of success. The Tigers were pleasantly surprised with the way Max Scherzer’s career really began to turn around late in 2012, which led to his Cy Young campaign in 2013. When the Tigers can roll out to perennial Cy Young winner’s back to back, it’s going to be very tough for opposing teams to take any series, and the pitching is a big reason the Tigers have been so dominant this past three years.
The departure of Doug Fister really concerns me though for the Tigers. Fister had been so solid for Detroit in the last three years, and having him as a potential three starter I thought at least, would made the Tigers rotation one of the best in the game. But Detroit is not without a good three starter. Anibal Sanchez, acquired in 2012 from Miami, had a career year in 2013, and built on 12 great starts at the end of 2012 in Detroit. I’ve always thought Sanchez had good stuff, and while his ERA, WHIP, innings pitched, etc were always good, the wins never added up. A lot of that had to do with his team, the Marlins, and now on a solid team that will undoubtedly provide him with plenty of run support, I think Sanchez could be a great three starter in Detroit.
Real quick, I want to touch on the four and five starters the Tigers will roll out. I think a breakout season is in store for tall righty Rick Porcello. Porcello had one of his best seasons as a pro in 2012, and if he can cut down on hits, and continue his trend of cutting down on walks, Porcello could be a fourth starter who could provide the Tigers with 175 to 180 innings, and should have not trouble picking up 15 wins.
I’ve always like Drew Smyly. Primarily used out of the bullpen his first full season in Detroit, Smyly was terrific out of the bullpen last year, and I think Detroit feels comfortable giving him an opportunity in the rotation. I like Smyly a lot, and if he can take what he learned starting in his first season in Detroit, combined with his experience in the bullpen last year, I think Smyly could be yet another 15 game winner who should only get better as he continues to learn at the big league level. I think Smyly is ultimately destined to be a two or three starter, but the pressure on him this year should be minimal, given the two Cy Young candidates at the top of the rotation.
The 2014 Detroit Tigers should run away with the American League Central. The age of some of their stars does have to concern you a little big, but when healthy, this lineup should be one of baseball’s best and I see no reason they don’t make a run at the best record in the American League, and potentially a return to the World Series.
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