When you look at the 2014 Atlanta Braves, one thing becomes obvious: It’s undoubtedly going to be a year of transitions.
Before the injury bug really bit the Atlanta Braves hard, I thought this team could be one of the top five teams in all of baseball. It definitely hurts losing Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen and Mike Minor. The Braves were almost forced to go out and get Ervin Santana, which isn’t a bad move.
I’m very curious how the injuries to this pitching staff affects their season. The Braves top three starters rival almost any trio in baseball. Santana, Julio Teheran and Alex Wood are excellent one, two, and three pitchers. Each one of these guys at minimum should win 15-18 games. I’m hesitant to say the back end of this rotation will not be very good, because the Braves really seem to find ways to get pitchers to step up, and it appears the Braves have no shortage of candidates. Two guys I look at to be decent fourth and fifth options, especially in this division, are David Hale and Cody Martin. Both Hale and Martin are well seasoned in their time in the minor leagues. They both were plucked from the college ranks, and if the Braves want to continue the investment into their young arms, these are guys that could ultimately, maybe not right away, earn their way into this rotation.
I’m very curious how Santana and Teheran rebound after career seasons.
Santana posted a career low in ERA, and unfortunately, could not make that 10 win plateau in Kansas City last year. I think in Atlanta, he can be a 15 win guy, and I’ll be curious how the big parks of the National League East fair for him. Santana has a tendency to give up the long ball, which has plagued him his whole career, but the big parks of the NL East just might allow him to cut down on that. The other interesting note for Santana, he leaves a league where the offenses are almost all juggernauts. He was facing quality lineups almost on a regular basis in Cleveland, Detroit, Baltimore, Boston, LA, and Texas amongst others. The offensive pedigree of lineups in the National League, to a degree, really tapers off, in a league dominated by pitching. I think Santana lowers his ERA a few ticks, I think the long ball numbers drop off, and I think he ups his win totals back to his 2010 and early Angels’ days.
Teheran has been regarded as one of the Braves’, and the games’, top talents, and when he played in the minors, you definitely see he had “it”. After a slow, and inconsistent start (both in terms of performance but consistent usage) Teheran put it together last year. It was something the Braves welcomed and it will be interesting to see how he does in 2014 following his breakout. Teheran has been stellar this spring, showing no signs of slowing in his progress. If he can build on what he did last year, baseball could be in for one of the real bright young stars making his entrance at a national level. Teheran won 14 games in 30 starts last year. After seeing what he’s done in the spring building on last year’s performance, Teheran could be a 200 inning pitchers, who could push that 16-20 win threshold, and should easily make the 200 strikeout barrier. I like Teheran a lot this year, and I think his emergence as one of the game’s best young starters is a big reason why the losses of the Braves big three is a little easier to bear.
The biggest transition the Braves are likely to make this year, is the departure of Brian McCann. McCann was about as consistent as you can get year after year for nine years in Atlanta. I don’t think there’s any question about it, his left handed pop, leadership and baseball intangibles are going to be very difficult to replace.
At any rate, Evan Gattis’ story off the field wasn’t the only story. Gattis was one of the real breakout stars of 2013. Hitting 20 homers in 380 at bats, however, most of those home runs were in the first half. For a lot of reasons, he dropped off, but the big reason was McCann found himself healthy in the second half and was able to play in more games. Now, Gattis should get the lion share of the starts behind the plate, and can even be an option in the outfield and at first base. Gattis could be in line for 450 or better at bats, and if that is the case, he will provide tremendous amounts of power for the Braves, and could reach 30 homers, sitting behind Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman in a loaded Braves lineup. My question with Gattis is, will he hold up? Not necessarily health wise, but can his big frame play in 125-150 games, if not more. The Braves have enough bats, if Gattis declines at all, it won’t be a big loss of production, but with the injury problems in their pitching staff, the Braves could use steady production from him all the way through the year.
A guy a lot of people like that I’m not sold on yet is Andrelton Simmons. Simmons flew through the Braves minor league system, and in my opinion, his minor league numbers were never impressive. He hit for a decent average. He never hit for decent power, but did show good speed. Simmons makes good contact, and that’s a fine stat, but at the end of the day, you can make all the contact you want, but if you’re not getting on base, it’s meaningless contact. I realize it was his first full season, and he is likely to get better, but Simmons didn’t even get on base 30% of the time. If Simmons is as good as everyone says he is, I need to see more. Simmons has an exceptional glove, but guys that don’t hit, and are exceptional defenders, generally become role players off the bench. I don’t think Simmons is close to that role in the least, but I’m tired of hearing about how good Simmons is, I want to see. I can’t say I’m confident he is as good as some think. I think he’s an average hitter, with above average speed.
The other guy I’m not sold on in Atlanta, is Jason Heyward. I really don’t think Jason Heyward is as good as he was touted, and so far in his short career, I’ve truthfully not been wrong. Heyward was boasted as a 30/30 guy who could hit for a high average, and he’s done none of those things. Heyward hit 27 home runs in 2012, but most of them were on the road, and between the end of June, and the first of August. I’ve always felt Heyward is an all or nothing player. When he’s hot, yes, he can carry a team, but when he’s cold, he is so unreliable it’s almost a worthless bat in the middle of the lineup. Heyworth tends to hit well going into July, otherwise he starts cold, and he finishes cold. Not to mention, his best season is a .277 average, 27 homers, and 82 RBIs, those were all separate years too. To me that is not an elite player. Is Heyward a solid player? In my opinion yes. But the predominant opinion among a lot of baseball people is that he is an elite talent, and the numbers pretty much show he’s hardly that.
The Braves acquiring Upton from Arizona last winter was nothing short of highway robbery. And then you add insult to injury when you consider the fact they acquired Chris Johnson in the deal, and he was a batting title contender last year. I think regression from Johnson is almost to be expected this year, but the Braves really found themselves a solid big leaguer there. I also think if Justin Upton can be more consistent across a 162 game season, this Braves offense will be very explosive every night. Upton is an incredibly durable player, so you know you can count on having him in the lineup all the way through the year.
Freddie Freeman has almost elevated himself to a Joey Votto-like level. Obviously Votto has been around a little longer, and Freeman still has some things to prove, but when you consider the type of year Freeman had last year, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say Freeman can definitely duplicate that, and if he can, he has to be in the discussion of one of the game’s top first basemen in terms of offensive productivity. Freeman definitely has the protection to reproduce his MVP-like year in 2014.
Ultimately, I really think the Braves return to the postseason. Be it as a Wild Card or as a division champ, the Braves are poised to return. I think ultimately how much success they achieve this year comes down to how the back end of the rotation pans out. Like I mentioned, I like Wood, Santana and Teheran at the front, but the fourth and fifth spots are big question marks. If the Braves can find guys to be consistent, they don’t have to wow, they just need to be consistent.
I see the Braves finishing behind Washington because of the rotation depth. Plain and simple. I see the offenses as equals. I see the bullpens as equals. To me, the Nats have three aces at the top, a two starter, three at worst in Doug Fister, and honestly, the candidates Washington is looking at for their fifth spot is a candidate for 15 wins. Of course I’ll dissect all that in the coming days in my Nationals preview.
Bottom line, the Braves are probably one of the ‘weaker’ elite teams because of the pitching injuries, but teams are considered elite because they are complete units, which Atlanta definitely is.
Bottom line, the Braves are probably one of the ‘weaker’ elite teams because of the pitching injuries, but teams are considered elite because they are complete units, which Atlanta definitely is.
No comments:
Post a Comment