In 2013, just about everything went the way of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They controlled the National League Central for most of the year, but that gave way to the eventual National League champs. The Pirates featured the league’s MVP (Andrew McCutchen), Manager of the Year (Clint Hurdle), the Comeback Player of the Year (Francisco Liriano), and two Silver Slugger Award winners (McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez).
The beauty of the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates is they bring every single one of those guys back. When you can add the valuable experience of being in a pennant race, then a winner-take-all Wild Card game, and taking the National League’s best team to the brink of elimination in two games and fall just short, the Pirates should be better because of the experience they gained last year.
There’s a lot of things to like about the Pirates, and I’ll talk plenty about that in a second, but one player I think the Pirates will sorely miss is A.J. Burnett. Burnett’s two years in Pittsburgh have to be measured by more than just the wins/losses, ERA, and strikeouts he totaled. Burnett’s experiences handling a grueling 162 game schedule, handling pressure down the stretch of a pennant race, and then handling and performing in the postseason were so valuable, I really attribute his winning attitude towards their transformation from 2012 to 2013, and I already talked about how that could benefit his new team, Philadelphia. Burnett had one of his best campaigns in 2013 since his years with Toronto and Florida and finding the guy to fill that hole is going to be tough.
But the Pirates have no shortage of candidates.
Gerrit Cole was obviously one guy Pirates fans were ecstatic to see join the rotation. Cole won half his starts in his first year, and was as good as anyone could have asked for. Cole was incredibly consistent, but what impressed me was the way he pitched down the stretch. As Randy Moss would say, Cole was “straight cash homie!”. Cole went at least six innings in his last eight starts, and won his final four games in the midst of one the Pirates’ most important September runs in a couple decades. While he may or may not be named the Opening Day starter, Cole’s continued improvement should make him the ace of this staff in no time. I like the way Cole is throwing in Spring Training and his stuff is tremendous. In a first full big league season, it will be interesting to see if the Pirates let him loose to go the full season of innings.
Jeff Locke really established himself as a legitimate middle of the rotation starter. While Locke pitched well down the stretch, he logged only one win after July 26. It should be noted, a lot of that wasn’t Locke’s fault, he pitched incredibly well, especially in August. I’ll get to the Pirates offense soon, but I expect Locke’s win total to increase this season. Locke could be a third pitcher in this rotation with 15 wins.
The Comeback Player of the Year Francisco Liriano was one of 2013’s best stories, reviving his career after having lofty expectations in Minnesota. Liriano completely revived his career with his best season since 2010. It will be very interesting to see how Liriano comes back. He is likely to be the ace of this staff. If Liriano continues to build on what he did last year, Pittsburgh got a steal signing him up at two years, for $7-mil. Liriano’s continued success is a very big key for Pittsburgh this year, especially with the departure of Burnett.
The Pirates should see the arrival of two highly touted prospects this summer that should allow them to continue to build on what has been a great couple seasons. When Jameson Taillon makes his Major League debut this summer, it will be very interesting to see if he pitches as well as Cole did in his first summer. Some scouts say they like Taillon more than Cole. Which is definitely fair. Taillon has a big body frame that will allow him to log major innings as he matures at the big league level. Taillon was good last year at two levels, and it’s only a matter of time before Pittsburgh gives him a chance. If all their starters remain healthy and effective, putting Taillon in a relief role could be an option to get him experience at the big leagues. We’ve seen a lot of teams turn to this route before they introduce their young studs to a rotation spot. Cole did well in going right to the rotation, will Taillon take the same route? We’ll see.
The other guy Pittsburgh should get excited about is Gregory Polanco. Polanco has great skills and put those on display at the Future’s game last year. Polanco has the ability to be a balance of Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte in one of the corner outfield spots. If Jose Tabata can’t get the job done, and the Pirates start running out of options to fill that void, we could see Polanco sooner rather than later. If the Pirates are rolling, the lineup is finding consistency, the Pirates can certainly allow Polanco to continue to get regular at bats in Triple-A Indianapolis. I’m very high on Polanco, and whether it’s mid-summer or September before we see him, Polanco is going to be big time in Pittsburgh.
Now, the Pirates offense is greatly balanced. I said last year Pedro Alvarez needed to either hit with greater power, or hit for a higher average. Alvarez in 2013 hit for more power, and it was consistent across the board. He really hit his stride in 2013 and built on a very good 2012. Alvarez has become one of the premier power bats not just in the National League, but in baseball. Alvarez really benefits from great table-setters like Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen. A true number-four hitter, Pittsburgh’s patience with Alvarez is paying off. Alvarez could be on the brink of a regular season home run championship in 2014 and even beyond.
My main man Starling Marte proved me right in so many ways last season. Marte was the starting left fielder from day 1 in Pittsburgh, and I liked him to have a breakout season. The projections I’m seeing for Marte in 2014 are truthfully insulting. Marte’s strikeouts are high, yes, but National League pitching is so good, striking out a lot is going to happen. I’ve seen projections on Marte as low as .259 to .270. I think Marte is a tick above a .270 hitter. After an incredibly fast start, Marte definitely slowed down as the season wore on, but it wasn’t like he completely disappeared. Marte went on and off, being hot and cold throughout the season. I don’t think Marte is going to dip to a .260 or so average. Is he going to regress? It’s completely possible, and frankly likely. But if Marte’s average is going to regress, I’d like to see his power numbers increase. I’m not asking him to hit 25 or 30 homers, but somewhere between 15-20 would be a boost and would make him a 20/20 player.
There’s no need to expand too much on what the Pirates have in Andrew McCutchen. But I realize this comparison may come with some ridicule, which is fine, I’ve gotten my fair share of it in these previews, but when you look at it, McCutchen is playing on a level of Mike Trout. Yes, I said it. Trout’s numbers are ridiculous, but so are McCutchen’s. In the last two years, McCutchen has hit .327 (2012) and .317 (2013). Trout has gone for .326 (2012) and .323 (2013). McCutchen’s home runs went from 31 in 2012, to 21 in 2013. Trout’s went from from 30 in ‘12, to 27 in ‘13. That’s very minimal disparity. Trout steals bases at a greater rate than McCutchen, that is one area ‘Cutch’ doesn’t match up, but McCutchen has an OPB of .404 (2012) to .400 (2013) in the last two years. Trout’s? .399 in ‘12 to .432 in ‘13. There is a little bit more separation there, but a .400 OPB is certainly consistent for McCutchen. I’ve got one last stat I’ll throw at you. Trout had 35 extra base hits in 2012 (27 doubles, 8 triples) and 48 extra base hits in 2013 (39 doubles, 8 triples). McCutchen went for 35 extra base hits in 2012 (29 doubles, 6 triples) and 43 extra base hits in 2013 (38 doubles, 5 triples). The point I’m making, while Trout has been better than McCutchen in the last few years, McCutchen makes it close and I think he’s one of the most underrated players in all of baseball.
I look to one last guy to make a difference in the Pirates lineup this year, and that’s Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez’s struggles since his Marlins days have been well documented, but I really liked the pick up by the Pirates when they got him.
Along with the strong starting rotation and a great lineup, the Pirates also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon were All-Stars last year, but those two arms aren’t the only two effective arms out there. Vin Mazzaro is a nice hurler out of that bullpen and Jeanmar Gomez was a do-it-all guy the Pirates could go to in almost any circumstance. While year-to-year, bullpens are a crapshoot to predict how they’ll do, the Bucs bullpen could be one of the stronger units in baseball.
I really like the 2014 Pirates to not only contend for a Wild Card spot at the very least, I like them to contend for an NL Central Divisional crown and play deep into October.
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