I’ve been so excited to write this preview, I don’t even know where to start, other than to say I am looking forward to this season of Dodgers baseball.
The Dodgers have always been one of my secondary teams I root for. I’m a Mets fan by association, but being a baseball fan in general, especially the Mets, it’s hard not to be a Dodgers fan.
I look at the 2014 Dodgers, and like the Washington Nationals, who I just wrote about, I find few flaws with this group.
And like Washington, I think a lot of the Dodgers success starts with their pitching. Back-to-back Cy Young award winner, and straight stud Clayton Kershaw needs no words, no introductions, no explanations on why he’s so good. If you’ve watched him for even five minutes, you immediately see his greatness. That should continue in 2013. His stuff is just ridiculous, and while his windup and mechanics are a little unorthodox, they certainly get the job done.
Once you get past Kershaw though, the studs just keep coming. Zack Greinke is one of the best right handed arms in the game, and yet he gets overshadowed by Kershaw so much in LA, sometimes you forget about him. Greinke’s stuff too, is nasty. Greinke’s 2013 likely would have been Cy Young worthy if not for the fight he got into with Carlos Quentin in April that sidelined him for a month. Greinke’s never really had an injury problem. He’s made 30 starts or better three of the last five years, and I can’t see that trend ending in 2014. The duo of Greinke and Kershaw may be so lethal, they may just be competing for that Cy Young award amongst themselves.
But the rotation doesn’t weaken at all once you get past those two studs. Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu was nothing short of terrific in his rookie US campaign. If the Dodgers don’t get off to a slow start last year, maybe Ryu wins 17 or 18 games, he didn’t get a single win in June, and still won 14. Ryu’s stuff is absolutely stellar, and may end up being one of the top, lesser publicized overseas acquisitions in recent memory (to go along with of course, teammate Yasiel Puig).
When I look at the back end of this team’s rotation though, it’s not great, at least right now. The Dodgers are going to roll out Danny Haren, who in the last few years, has really been on the decline after a terrific career in Oakland and Arizona. I’m not really thrilled about him back there. The Dodgers could also turn to Paul Maholm. But I think a guy that should have an impact in LA by the end of may just might be a shot in the arm this team needs.
Chad Billingsley last year succumbed to Tommy John Surgery. It looked like he was in for a good season. He made two starts where he wasn’t bad. Trying to make a quick recovery from TJS is almost ill advised anymore, and guys are required almost 15 months to get back. I’ve always thought highly of his stuff and his makeup, and while most guys take a while to return to form, I feel like Billingsley may not need as much time as others. He’s probably achieved veteran status, and I think he’s crafty enough to make the comeback look easier than it probably is. If Billingsley can be a factor by the end of May, or sooner, the Dodgers could use his arm in this rotation. I do believe Billingsley comes back strong, and if he ends up being a fourth starter, that takes a lot of pressure off him to be great right away, and really work his way back.
I’m not done talking about the rotation, but I want to make this point while I’m on the topic of Billingsley. If he comes back, the Dodgers will have the luxury of easing him into a heavy workload because of the depth of their bullpen. This bullpen is probably the best in the game as currently constructed. You’ve got four closers out there in Kenly Jansen (the closer to start the year for LA), Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League. Not to mention real live arms in likely future closers Paco Rodriguez and Chris Withrow. The Dodgers are going to have a very deep pen this year, and while I usually go by the modo “bullpens are a crapshoot to predict”, I think I throw that out the window with this group for now. They should allow the Dodgers great flexibility when they don’t get long outings out of their starters, and Don Mattingly should have no problem going to any one of them in any situation.
Now, back to this Dodgers rotation. The Dodgers fifth starter spot is somewhat of a question mark. They have a lot of options at this point to fill that spot once Kershaw comes back. I’ve kind of written Josh Beckett off for his career. He can’t seem to stay healthy, and seemed like a great acquisition in the deal to get Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but so far he’s done literally nothing in LA. So I almost don’t view him as an option for the Dodgers. Which leaves them with Danny Haren, Paul Maholm, or a young guy I think may just fly under the radar into this rotation, and that’s top pitching prospect Zach Lee (right).
Like I have a thing for college players in major league baseball, I also have a thing for multi-sport athletes, and that is exactly what Zach Lee is. He’ll likely start his season at Triple-A Albuquerque and if he is effect, it may not be a stretch to say we’ll see him sooner than later in LA. Lee has good stuff, good command, and if I had a guess, we see him before the All-Star break if the back end of this rotation is struggling. I’m not saying he’s going to come up and immediately dominate, but he could be what the Dodgers are looking for in the back end of the rotation. A Lee promotion this summer would just flex the muscle of the LA Dodgers and they’re strong MLB lineup, and showcase just many more of the talented young players they feature in their farm system.
The Dodgers made headlines last year because of the flamboyant play of Yasiel Puig. And whether you like Puig or not (I for the record absolutely love this kid, but I knew what he was like long before much of America did), he made a huge impact for the Dodgers. And as time went by, Puig was not afraid of the spotlight, the pressure, or the ridicule he got. I said it last winter, and I’ll say it again, Puig is the next big thing in baseball. This guy has all the tools to be one of the all time greats. He’s shown a greater sense of humility and willingness to learn (from his teammates, not his detractors in the media or public) and so far this year I see a renewed sense of less flash and show, and more hustle from the start, and carrying that all the way through. I’ve written on Puig (and his fellow Cuban defectors), so I won’t say much more on him and what I think of his actions. But his on field production I think is a big reason why I like the Dodgers this year.
The two guys the Dodgers got in a steal of a deal from Boston have been big since they arrived. Adrian Gonzalez has been completely stellar. I thought him going to LA would bring him the recognition of being one of the top first basemen in the game. In Boston, he just didn’t produce to the level he did in San Diego. Turning 32 in May, I think AGon could be in for another 30 home run season and he should be a big key to the Dodgers returning to the postseason.
The other guy that has been very good is Carl Crawford. Crawford’s steals have declined significantly declined in the past three to four years. Crawford’s forte is now getting on base. When he’s on base he can still move station to station via the the steal, though it may not be at the rate he used to. To me, the key to Crawford being successful in LA is getting on base. If he gets on base, guys like Puig, AGon, and Hanley Ramirez can drive him in with extra base hits and home runs of course. To me, Crawford’s value is beyond his steals and now is about his ability to get on base.
I think it will be interesting to see what Matt Kemp does once he comes off the disabled list. We thought Kemp was healthy last year once he returned and just wasn’t the same guy. If Kemp can return to form, the Dodgers may be completely dangerous. I’m not sold Kemp’s career is over by any means. Coming up on 30 years old, Kemp has a lot left in the tank and is so athletic, no matter how old he gets, he’ll always be a threat in any lineup. I actually like Kemp a lot this year to have a bounce back year and return to MVP form.
And if Kemp returns to form, what do the Dodgers do with Andre Ethier? There’s no doubt the back end of their rotation could use a solid arm. Does a team that likely will be out of contention quickly like the Chicago Cubs or New York Mets make guys like Jeff Samardzija or Jon Niese available? Both would be a good fit for the Dodgers. Do the Mariners make one of their pitchers available? Robbie Cano has said the Mariners need a second bat, and they certainly have a plethora of young arms the Dodgers may find intriguing. It will be interesting because the Dodgers have young players that could fill holes that ultimately arise. They also have enough youth they could add an ace like Samardzija. But it all hinges on how Ethier fares this season.
The Dodgers area loaded with talent up down the lineup. The Dodgers could push winning 100 games this year, especially in what I think will be a very down National League West. The Dodgers could be on a World Series or Bust train this year, and I for one don’t think that’s unrealistic. The Dodgers are undoubtedly one of the game’s top teams and should contend for an NL crown.
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