2014 Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

If you want a snapshot of what a successful franchise looks like, the St. Louis Cardinals would be your first choice.

This is a team that over the past decade has been as successful as any franchise in sports, not just baseball. The Cardinals ability to continuously filter in homegrown talent, add productive and relatively cheap free agents, and then find success by keeping payrolls at incredibly mild levels is mind blowing. Whether you like the Cardinals or not, (I for one do not) it cannot be argued this team is as good as it gets in almost every aspect.

And said trend of developing young talent and finding quality, inexpensive free agents should only continue this year. The Cardinals have followed the Tampa Bay model of developing quality, young arms, bringing them up and putting them in the bullpen, then finding them a spot in the rotation, which has worked out very well.

Last year, the one exception to that was Michael Wacha. Wacha came up and was sensational from day one. Wacha is a tremendously talented young player,

who has as bright of a future as any young pitcher in the game, believe it or not though, he is my only concern in St. Louis this year, and it's really not that big of a concern.

We saw Wacha completely steamroll through the postseason last year, and then in a decisive game six, Wacha was knocked around in a big way. I addressed Wacha’s need for a breaking pitch in a story I did earlier this year, so I won’t get too much into it, but Wacha has shown a cutter in early spring training. That will certainly help, but I still maintain Wacha needs to find a breaking pitch to add to his arsenal. I’m not saying Wacha won’t be an effective big league pitcher this year, because he likely will be. His two offerings are very much above average, but I can’t say I’d be surprised if he hits a wall at some point mid-summer. Cutters still manage to find themselves in the upper 80s, and lower 90s, and Wacha needs something with drastic break, that can fool crafty hitters, which there's a lot of in the National League.

Now, I like Wacha a lot, I don’t want to give the impression I don’t. And other than the small issue I have with him, I really like this Cardinals rotation. I think 'like' is too weak a word, but because my in-laws are Cardinals fans, I don't want to say too much more than that. 

Built on almost entirely home grown talent, the Redbird rotation is going to be one of the tops in the league. The ageless Adam Wainwright may just take a back seat to young pitchers like Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and eventually Carlos Martinez. All four of these guys are legitimate number one pitchers in almost any rotation, and the Cardinals will roll them out one after another night after night. And I’ve not even mentioned Joe Kelly, who I was really impressed with in the postseason. Kelly is probably a number two, a three at worst, and is the fourth or fifth starter in this rotation. The pitching is a big reason why I think St. Louis not only makes a return to the postseason, but a return to the National League Championship Series.

I think a lot of the Cardinals pitchers success should be given to Yadier Molina. A lot is made of the departure of Dave Duncan, and rightfully so. Tony LaRussa's right-hand man for so many years definitely had an impact on their championship runs in 2006 and 2012. But Molina is so valuable because he was with St. Louis for all those runs, which means, he watched Duncan work with these pitchers day after day, year after year. Molina is such a smart player, there's no way he wasn't picking up on what Duncan was doing. He probably soaked it up like a sponge, and now that Duncan is gone, I think it's Molina who becomes the guy that guides these young pitchers into stardom. I really think the way Joe Kelly, and Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha performed last year and in the postseason has a lot to do with Yadi, and the reason Yadi knows so much, is from his former pitching coach, Dave Duncan.

Again, there's probably a lot of things the loss of Duncan does for the Cardinals, but I think Molina is smart enough and a good enough communicator and on-field coach,

he can bridge that gap just enough to make these kids stars. You don't get a guy like Yadier Molina often, and as much as it pains me to say, Cardinals fans definitely appreciate what he does for this team.


The bullpen in St. Louis is a powerhouse of strong arms. Trevor Rosenthal is one of those starters the Cardinals brought up to work his way into the rotation, but he’s been so impressive out of the 'pen, he ran Edward Mujica out of the closers roll, and eventually took things over late last year. Rosenthal will become one of the elite closers in baseball this year, and if you can’t get to the Cardinals early in a game, you’re likely not going to get to them at all.

I continue to sound like a broken record, but this homegrown talent they put in their lineup is going to make this offense one of the more efficient units in all of baseball. I really liked the Cards getting rid of David Freese, which freed up third base, and allowed Matt Carpenter to slide over, and the steady Hawaiian Kolten Wong (right) to move to second base.

No matter where Carp plays, he’s not only going to give you a steady defensive effort, but he’ll hit. His bat is not going to produce eye-popping numbers, but it is so consistent and predictable, and his ability to get on base is a big reason guys like Holiday and Allen Craig can reach 100 RBIs.

I’m very curious who the Cardinals will put in their two-hole behind Carpenter. Wong is certainly a candidate to be that guy, but in limited time in the lineup in September of last year, he really struggled. Wong makes consistent contact and has a knack for getting on base, which is why I think he might be the best candidate for that spot.

But you could also put a Peter Bourjos, or even Jhonny Peralta in the spot. Bourjos might be a leadoff candidate if he could hit for more of an average, I think he finds himself at the bottom of the order. 

To me, Peralta makes more sense to hit behind Carpenter if it isn't Wong. In a PED shortened 2013, Peralta got on base 36% percent of the time. I know people will probably kill him over the PED thing, but honestly, PEDs really don’t have that much to do with your on-base percentage. You’re more likely to see a spike in slugging percentages and other power number indicators like that. I like Peralta in St. Louis. I think he’s a good fit. No matter if he hits second or in the sixth or seventh spot, he will turn out to be a good investment.

I also like what the Cardinals are doing moving Allen Craig to the outfield. I thought last year, St. Louis should have moved him there, but then there wasn’t really a spot for him with Beltran in the lineup. Moving him there allows St. Louis to replace the power Carlos Beltran leaves behind with Matt Adams. 

Adams hasn’t been around that long, and he’s already 25 years old. The beauty of him being 25, he’s likely to be a mature hitter, especially in his first go round of full time play than most guys with his experience. Adams' average numbers all through the minor leagues were excellent. But it should be noted, he was probably one of the older, or mature if you will, hitters all the way through. The Cardinals had plenty of time to let him get better and see consistent playing time because of Albert Pujols. I’ll be curious to see, now that Adams will see consistently good pitching, if he can continue to hit for an average. One thing he will do, is provide a right handed heavy lineup with some legitimate power from the left-side.

Cardinals fans continue to hear all about this kid Oscar Taveras, but so far, there’s been no sign of him. And that’s because of injuries. Taveras’ 2013 campaign was cut short because of injuries, now his 2014 seems to be starting off on a sour note with more injuries. Taveras has legitimate big league talent, but if the kid can’t stay on the field, that may really hurt what the Cardinals are trying to do in St. Louis. I can’t think the Redbirds want to stick with Bourjos/Jon Jay for 162 games this year. Although I really like Jon Jay, he regressed greatly in 2013, and if he can’t find it this year, which I doubt he can for the simple reason he’ll be in a platoon role and not seeing consistent playing time, then St. Louis may be forced to find an inexpensive outfield bat via trade. Taveras is a big part of the future of St. Louis, and it’s almost imperative he be healthy this year.

Now Taveras won’t make or break any run the Cardinals make, simply because there’s enough pieces in this lineup, St. Louis can figure it out.

I look at the St. Louis pipeline, and other than Taveras, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of talent arrive from the lower levels, at least compared to last year. You have to remember, the 2013 Cardinals boasted some of the game’s elite prospects. Martinez, Wacha, Wong, and Shelby Miller were the highlights.

The Cards are in desperate need of a left-handed starter, or long reliever, and their first round pick from the 2013 draft, Marco Gonzales from Gonzaga, could ultimately take the same path as Wacha did to the big leagues.

Gonzales to me is the Cardinals answer to Jaime Garcia, who recently, hasn't been able to stay healthy. He was regarded as one of the top left-handed pitchers in this past year’s draft. A lot of teams went young on their draft picks to save money, but the Cardinals, I have to assume, see what this guy could be very quickly. Again, my love-affair of college players, Gonzales leaving the college ranks should move up the ladder quickly, and if he can do what Wacha did (in a word, dominate) in the minors just a winter removed from his first taste of professional ball, Gonzales could reach St. Louis this summer.

I think that’s a stretch, but it’s not crazy. Gonzales is a legitimate three or four starter right now, and with seasoning and coaching, he could be better. We’ll see. I like him a lot, and whenever he gets to St. Louis, it won’t be long before he is having a big impact for this club.

The 2014 St. Louis Cardinals will make some real noise this year. I think they take the Central Division, and while Pittsburgh and Cincinnati may hang around for a while, in the end, I think St. Louis outlasts them, and outclasses them with the ridiculous amount of talent they boast.