I feel like I've been saying it for about two years now: The Chicago Cubs are coming folks. Sure as God's vengeance, they're coming.
Is the year 2015? I truthfully cannot completely rule it out. This lineup from the start of last year to this year is so much better, it is scary to think about what is coming.
What I love about the Cubs this year, they have a true ace. Don't get me wrong, Jeff Samardzija is a stellar pitcher, but I've never viewed him as an true #1. With Jon Lester, they now have a bona fide front of the rotation starter. You hope the Lester of the past three or four years can continue this dominant path for another couple to get the Cubs to the promised land after 100-plus years.
Additionally, after Lester, Jake Arrieta is coming off, by far, his best year in the big leagues. A big question for the Cubs is can he repeat that performance. While 2014 was encouraging, Arrieta only made 25 starts and reached 150 innings.
At 6'4 and 225, you'd like to see Arrieta reach 200 innings, something he has never done. He's also never reached 30 starts, in fact, the 25 from last year is the most he's made in a year. Arrieta's durability is a major question, that to me, has to get answered.
After Arrieta, it would appear Jason Hammel is going to be the next in line in this rotation. By far, he had his most productive half of baseball in Chicago last summer, however, after a blockbuster trade that moved him to Oakland, he went back to the old Jason Hammel that was an average major league pitcher prior to his arrival in Chicago. His strikeouts in Oakland went way down, his walks went way up, and he, to me, almost took himself out of the running for a good amount of money he had coming his way this winter.
However, Jed Hoyer and company didn’t see it that way, so they antied up and inked Hammel to a very friendly, 2 year, $20-million deal.
However, what concerns me about Jason Hammel, is he’s never been consistent over an entire season. At 32 years old, it’s getting a little late in the game to start hoping he figures it out over 30-35 starts. I do realize in fact, he is just a three starter, but look at the rotations of the Brewers and Cardinals, if the Cubs are to compete in 2015, Jason Hammel must give the Cubs 175 innings and be that guy that can have an ERA of around 3.25-3.50 and cut down his walks. I very much question if the Cubs can get that out of him over a 162 game year.
One guy I think is in for a big time year is Kyle Hendricks. In 13 starts last year, this young guy dazzled to a 7-2 record and 2.46 ERA. Those numbers don’t come without merit either. His minor league numbers bear to to an overall 2.69. Simply put, Hendricks may not be able to sustain the 2.46 at the big league level, but the fact he’s maintained it as he has progressed through the minor leagues is more than encouraging to him having a solid major league career, and what will be his first full year in Chicago.
Offensively, this is where the fun starts for the Cubs. I wrote a series of previews this February about guys that could potentially be breakout candidates this year. And one guy that I omitted from the list that would easily have been number one was Jorge Soler. I want to explain that I omitted Soler not because I don’t think he is going to break out, but because I wanted to challenge myself. Saying Jorge Soler is going to breakout in 2015 is about as challenging as having the 10 year olds that I coach pitch to me. I wanted to go a little deeper.
To me, Soler is a no brainer for a big time year, and a big time career with Cubs. Look for him to become a rising start in a hurry.
One guy I want to see do it though, is Mike Olt. This guy has been to hell and back in his early career, and with an opportunity to play third base every day while Bryant waits out the passing of his ‘Super 2’ status to save Chicago some money, I could see the scenario where Olt plays himself into an everyday role at third, and give the Cubs the reasons they’ve been looking for to get Bryant to left field. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t wait to see Kris Bryant, and truth be told, the guy deserves the chance he’s not going to get to be on the big league roster, but it’s time for Mike Olt to step up and show the once highly touted prospect he used to be.
I think he does, and I think he forces Kris Bryant to stay in Triple-A for longer than most Cubs fans want.
About halfway through the winter, I was just going through depth charts checking into who had gone where after the ridiculous amount of activity at the winter meetings, and I was looking at Chicago’s, and of course I remembered the strong September Soler put out, and the way Baez burst on the scene and either mashed homers or struck out. And I’m checking out the catching situation and I saw M. Montero. I had to click on the name because it threw me for a curve, and then I remembered the Cubs got him from the Dbacks this winter.
I don’t know why, but I immediately thought, if the Cubs were going to have any type of success, he was going to be the proverbial X-Factor.
You might say Soler, Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler or even whoever ends up in left field for the Cubs would be their ‘X-Factor’. But here’s why I think it’s Miguel Montero.
Every lineup needs an anchor. That guy that is a veteran to the league. Knows the game, knows the grind, and knows just knows how to do it right. If you ask me, none of the guys above know that yet. Rizzo is ready to take that role, but I think a year of watching Montero will get him to that place.
To me, Miguel Montero is one of the most underrated players of the game. In an all-star year, he hits .243 but his OBP is almost .330, as a catcher he played in 136 games, and is a solid defensive backstop.
I know Chicago didn’t bring him in because of his offense, after all, where would they put [in my humble opinion, the overrated] Wellington Castillo? To me, Montero screams a Joe Maddon type of guy, and I do believe he ends up taking the lion’s share of the catching days from Castillo, simply because, he gets on base.
I’m so convinced Montero is such a key to this team, I’m starting the #MonteroWatch on Twitter. Join me.
I think the addition of Dexter Fowler for the Cubs was a sneaky good one that has gone largely unrecognized around baseball circles. I think we’re about to see a Ben Revere like breakout for this guy. In a much more respected lineup than he’s been in for several years now, coupled with a very high OBP and BABIPs over the past handful of years, I do not think it is a stretch to say, Fowler could be one of the league’s best leadoff hitters this season. And if he gets to that point, that adds a whole new dimension to this Cubs lineup.
Two guys I am curious to see how it plays out for is Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara. Indications this spring seem to be Baez may start the year at Triple-A and Alcantara would assume the second base duties.
I like that thought and I don’t.
I like it because if the Cubs want to win now and avoid as many growing pains as possible with Baez, logically, it makes sense to send him to Triple-A and see if he doesn’t cut down on the strikeouts.
I like Alcantara because he is a do it all type of player, with a good, not great, but good, power speed combination. Since joining the big leagues, and even into spring training, Alcantara seems to the obvious guy you want in the lineup if you want to win now, and behind Fowler, I think could make this Cubs lineup incredibly violent.
I don’t like the idea of sending down Baez because Triple-A pitching is not major league pitching (firm grasp of the obvious I know right?) However, here’s where I’m going. Guys at Triple-A just don’t match up to the big league level, and from what his minor league numbers would indicate, no matter how much he strikes out, Baez will always beat minor league pitching. To me, for him to learn best and to get to his superstar potential, the big league roster is to me, where he belongs.
Realizing the future middle infield is crowded, the future outfield is crowded, Alcantara may go on display this year for offseason trade considerations. I think this guy would have tremendous value to a dozen teams, if not more. Yet another reason to perhaps give him the starting nod this summer?
All in all, I just love where the Cubs are going. And folks, make no mistake about it, they are almost there. You can see the Theo Epstein masterpiece nearing completion, as the finishing touches start to come into place.
Truthfully, I think the Cubs are just a year off. 2016 guys, but get ready Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Sox fans, because 2015 is going to give Cubs fans plenty of hope and reasons to start talking again.
Ooohh the Cubbies are comin’, sure as God’s vengeance, they’re coming.
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