When talking about the Houston Astros, the focus has always been on the future. But today, I tell you I think the Astros are built well enough as currently constructed to compete this year.
Do I think they will win make the playoffs? No.
Do I think they will be in the playoff hunt heading towards the trade deadline? I say no tentatively.
Do I think they will once again lose 90 games? No.
While the future in Houston is certainly very bright, the present isn’t going to be quite the disappointment the past few years have been.
The Astros were very active in the offseason, most notably with the Atlanta Braves when they moved a handful of prospects for Evan Gattis.
They added a big upside bat in Colby Rasmus.
I think two moves they made on the back end of their bullpen were quiet yet are going to be maybe two of the more crucial additions they made, and that is bringing in Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek (left). Two guys that can close out games and have experience in setting up for the closer. The starting pitching situation in Houston isn’t great, but if the ‘Stros can shorten the game to six innings, they will have a great shot at winning games in 2015.
When you look at the Astros offensively, they had the league’s batting champ (Jose Alutve), the runner up to the home run king (Chris Carter) paired with up and coming prospect George Springer. The Astros offensively are going to be extremely stout.
The additions of Colby Rasmus and Evan Gattis, to me, were tremendous.
Not only does Gattis (right) provide you with 20-plus home run potential but he gives you a great amount of positional flexibility.Playing left field, first base, and catcher, the Astros will be able to do a lot of different things with some of the promising young players they have like Jon Singleton or Matt Dominguez.
The home run totals for Gattis I think could grow this year as well. At 20 and 21 respectively in his first two years, that number could get bigger now that he gets out of the pitchers parks of the NL Central where he spent half his season, and into the hitter friendly left field short porch Minute Maid Park offers in addition to the hitter friendly environments of Texas and LA.
Despite a down 2014, Rasmus gives the Astros another power bat with versatility. Virtually an any outfield position guy, Rasmus can hit for a good average (again, despite a down 2014) and power.
Add the 37 home runs Carter hit last year plus the unstoppable tablesetter, Altuve, and the top of this Astros lineup looks pretty good.
To me, a guy I’d like to see get more time consistently is Matt Dominguez. A brilliant, underrated defender, Dominguez has shown he has the power to get the ball out of the ballpark. He’s gone for 15 home runs or better in the last two years, but doesn’t do much else. Hitting .241 and .216 respectively, in ‘13 and ‘14, I guess I don’t care if his average is low, but he can’t keep getting by with those kinds of numbers, he’s got to start doing a little more and get that number closer to .250.
The young guy will stick because of his glove, but if they can get him to better that average, he’ll be a mainstay there.
The Astros at shortstop are clearly waiting for the arrival of Carlos Correa. Right now, Jed Lowrie is a stop gap until Correa can make his much anticipated debut. I can’t fault the ‘Stros for what they’re doing, but I honestly can’t think of a more obvious demonstration of a team just trying to get by until their next stud comes. I think we’re at least next year away from seeing him.
The biggest questions for the Astros though, of course, surrounds their pitching. Dallas Keuchel was a nice surprise last year for the ‘Stros and if he can at least throw another 200 innings and be around that 3-ERA mark, the Astros really found something in him. The way he is built, I don’t think there’s any indication he can’t do it again. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was a 3.21 and has declined each year he’s been in the big leagues, which indicates he can keep up what he’s doing with minimal digression, and maybe even improvement. In addition, his BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) was a low .298. Consequently, that number may rise which would likely result in the rise of his 1.175 WHIP.
After a career year, in terms of ERA, Scott Feldman is a big key to me this year. If he can keep that ERA low and make around 30 starts, I like what Feldman can offer behind Keuchel.
After those two though, the Astros rotation leaves a lot to be desired, and it is because of that I can’t take them seriously as a playoff contender.
Yes you could make the argument they could be the Baltimore Orioles of the west, but think about this for a second. The LA Angels had the league’s best record last year and the Oakland A’s were the wild card. The Oriole have been successful out east, in large part, because the AL East is very mediocre. Not only do the Astros have to compete with two playoff teams last year, but they also have to deal with a Texas Rangers group that gets back one of the game’s perennial power hitters, and has one of the best arms in the league, in Yu Darvish. The Astros are going to need a lot deeper pitching than they have to keep down those lineups to stay in the division. I just don’t see it.
But make no mistake about it friends, just like MInnesota and Chicago and now Miami, the Astros are coming, and it’s getting closer.
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