Monday, March 30, 2015

2015 Preview: Chicago White Sox

Since Avisail Garcia came back healthy late last year and the Carlos Rodon fell to the Sox at #3 in the MLB draft, I’ve been excited to get this preview published!


And if I may be so blunt, why are the White Sox being considered a deep sleeper? Other than San Diego, no team in baseball spent more money or made more headlines than the White Sox.

Not only that, the quality of players they added put them on the map. So I personally find it hard to consider them a sleeper pick this year.

That said, I think the White Sox have to be in the conversation of contenders in a gap that is quickly closing in the American League Central division.

We all know about the Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, David Robertson and Adam LaRoche acquisitions. We all know about Jose Abreu and what a stud he is. We know Chris Sale is a beast and anchors this rotation.

But the White Sox are going to have a few new faces that you should keep an eye on that could become contributors that make those other guys a lot better.

I wrote this winter about one of my favorite prospects for the past few years, Avisail Garcia. I’m not going to rehash it all out right now, I encourage you to read it, but I called for him to have a big year last year, and unfortunately a freak knee injury derailed most of his year, however, he recovered incredibly quickly and showed us what he’s capable of late last year.

Again, check it out, but Garcia has been my guy for a long time and I’m looking forward to him getting a full time opportunity in 2015.

The White Sox have no shortage of middle infield prospects that are going to eventually make an impact, and like their crosstown rivals, the Sox are going to have some difficult decisions to make in the coming years.

For now though, one of their highly touted prospects appears poised to take on the lead role at second base. Micah Johnson is your prototypical leadoff hitter.

He gets on base at excellent rates, he steals bags like they’re going out of style, and most of all, he does a little bit of everything well offensively.

A Big Ten guy out of Indiana, Johnson absolutely flew through the minor leagues, hitting at every single stop he made. Again I go back to my love of college players over high school guys. If you want a guy that’s basically developed for you, go the college route. I love college players, especially hitters, and Johnson is just another example of why.

A ninth round pick that could become one of the American League’s top leadoff hitters in no time.

I love what MIcah Johnson brings to the table for the Sox, and if he’s getting on base, this offense becomes even more potent when you likely bat him in front of the big offseason acquisition of Melky Cabrera and his ridiculous .339 OBP.

Final guy to watch?

Zach Duke.

The White Sox bullpen in 2014 was riddled with injuries and hit hard late in the year thanks to a lack of depth, and quality arms.

While David Robertson was certainly the headline arm for Chicago, I think Duke makes the biggest impact, because not only is he a lefty, but he can log major innings. He’s very durable. Duke pitched in 74 games last year and is capable of logging close to 100 innings.

He will be heavily relied on in a bullpen that could never get it together in 2014.

What can we expect from last year’s Rookie of the Year candidate, Jose Abreu?

In year two, I think perhaps the biggest Cuban prospect to ever come off the island is going to regress just a little. Here’s why, statistically, I think Abreu absolutely hit his ceiling. At .317 with 36 home runs, that is going to be extremely difficult to duplicate.

What is encouraging is Abreu’s year one Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was and unsightly .356. Normally, that figure is extremely hard to maintain, but I point to another statistic that could indicate his decline will only come in the power department.

His line drive rate was 27% while the league average is right around 20%.

Just given the absolute outburst of power in 2014, pitching coaches are going to not only gameplan for this guy, but they are likely to pitch around him all the more.

For the Sox, they should welcome that given he’ll be protected by Adam LaRoche who hit 26 homers in the pitcher friendly parks of the NL East in 2014, and Avisail Garcia.

I think Abreu is able to keep his high average, but I think his power numbers regress, again, just a little bit, so you’re looking at maybe 30 homers instead of 36.

What the White Sox get from their rotation after Jose Quintana is going to be very crucial.

The big three of Sale, Samardzija and Quintana are going to give the White Sox a lot of opportunities to win, but since a big time 2010 season, John Danks has struggled mightily. He bounced back for 200 innings last year, but to the tune of a 4.74 ERA.

The Sox have some options, highlighted by third overall pick last summer, Carlos Rodon.

Personally, I don’t think it’s a matter of if Rodon gets the call this year but when.

I don’t trust Danks. Hector Noesi isn’t a major league pitcher in my opinion.

If the Sox are going to make a run at the playoffs this year, they need to solidify those spots in their rotation, or at least find consistency.

Offensively, the Sox are as good as it gets. They are going to score a lot of runs and be an exciting team to watch.

Like I said, after the big three in their rotation is a big question mark going into 2015. That could be the difference between a playoff berth, and just a good season.

Personally, I see the Sox having a lot of success, challenging Detroit and Cleveland for the division, but falling just short of a playoff spot. None-the-less, the future is exceptional on the south side.

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