I think a lot of people are writing off the Tampa Bay Rays this year because they moved David Price and have a lot of new faces in their lineup, but don’t sleep on these guys friends.
One reason I say that is this pitching is going to be very good.
Alex Cobb has been one of the most underrated right handed pitchers in the game the past several years. A 2.76 ERA in ‘13, then a 2.87 ERA in ‘14 is exceptional. Cobb has had some trouble staying on the field, but they are more fluke injuries than anything, the line drive to his melon the most noteable.
Cobb’s resurgence in this rotation isn’t anything surprising. Cobb has improved his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) each year and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a low .287 for his career. While low BABIP numbers are hard to maintain, Cobb has consistently been low in that category, so I see no reason that he can’t keep it up.
If Cobb can get to that elusive 30 start plateau, look out, the 27-year old could be in a for big time year as the new ace of this staff.
It would one thing if quality of arms ended after Cobb, but they don’t. Chris Archer is a 1A type of guy. After throwing for almost 200 innings last year, his 3.33 ERA followed his ‘13 campaign where he went for a 3.22 ERA. This guy can definitely get better. His BABIP was a career high .298, but that number has been consistently under .300 since he came up, which is a very good sign and an indication his ERA should continue to go down as he continues to get more big league experience.
I look for Christ Archer to continue to improve on that ERA and bring it down a little bit this year.
I also look for a breakout year for Jake Odorizzi. The young right hander had an up and down year in Tampa last year with a 11-13 record and 4.13 ERA. I look for Odorizzi to really improve this year. his FIP last year of 3.75, which indicates improvement is on the horizon. Additionally, Odorizzi’s big league .295 BABIP is an indicator he should improve as well.
If Alex Colome gets the fifth starter spot in this rotation, I am very curious to see how he does. Colome was very good in the minor leagues and has been up and down from the big leagues and the minors. He should be a very good major league starter in time, and could win the fifth starter job this spring.
Notice how all the improvements I talked about didn’t involve more wins? All the starters I just reference finished last year with fewer than 15 wins. The Rays were in the bottom five of the league in runs scored last year. Truthfully, Tampa hasn’t done enough in the offseason to improve that.
However, one guy I think is going to be an absolutely stellar addition is Steven Souza. This kid can flat out rake. Getting better all the way through his minor league career, he is so difficult to strike out, he has a decent amount of power and a great deal of speed. Souza is going to be one of the offseasons really great additions for the Rays.
Another key for the Rays offensively is what do they get out of their middle infielders, Asdrubal Cabrara and Nick Franklin? Both are coming off miserable 2014 seasons’ where Franklin didn’t hit .200 for the season in limited time at the big leagues. While Cabrera managed 14 homers, he only hit .240.
What Tampa gets from those two guys is going to be a big key for their offense.
If you’re a Rays fan, you have to be concerned about two guys.
First, Desmond Jennings. This guy has yet to live up to the hype he brought with him from the minors. Jennings still has yet to hit better than .260 in a season. For being a speed guy with a little power, Jennings has to do better than that and his career .327 OBP.
Another guy I might have some slight concerns about is Evan Longoria. I know, he’s the face of the franchise, he’s an MVP type player, but Longoria’s average and OBP are dropping and his strikeouts are going up. That is not a good sign. Fortunately for him, his power doesn’t seem to have diminished. My biggest concerns would be the drastic drop in average and OBP and the huge spike in strikeouts. I’m not saying Longo is worthless, and is declining, but, if Tampa is going to have any success offensively, it starts with Longo and he has to be better.
Tampa Bay is going to pitch exceptionally well this year. They don't have the best rotation, but it is definitely underrated.
For Tampa Bay, their pitching is really, there’s no question, unfortunately I just don’t think there is enough offense to make Tampa a serious contender this year.
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