2015 Preview: Colorado Rockies

The 2014 version of the Colorado Rockies had one of, if not, the most prolific and efficient offenses in all of baseball.

This team hit more home runs than any team in baseball by nearly 30 home runs. They outscored the league by almost 40 runs and had a team batting average that was 11 points better than the next team in line.

Simply, the Rockies offense was high powered.
Breakout stars like Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson boosted an already explosive offense led by of course Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado, who all played fewer games than Blackmon and Dickerson.

Justin Morneau was a beast in the first half of the year. His power explosion to start the year made you think he was going to revert to his 2006 MVP form. A less than powerful, but still efficient led the big lefty to the batting title last year.

Despite all the offensive firepower and accolades players collected, the boys in the Mile High City were the second worst team in baseball behind division rival Arizona.

How?

I’m sure it’s no secret to Rockies fans, the pitching in Colorado was beyond bad. While the offense was the pacesetter offensively, the pitching was the caboose.

Falling in dead last, or near the bottom, in nearly every statistical, the Rockies pitching may not have been able to get any worse.

What is worse about Colorado at this point, is there is no relief in sight.

What you like about the Rockies, is they bring back almost every major component to last year’s dominant offense. Losing just Michael Cuddyer to free agency, I don’t see that as a major loss. I could see a little regression from Dickerson and Blackmon, but what I like is the combo’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an astronomical .356 for Dickerson and .315 for Blackmon. To me, that shows Dickerson will likely come back to earth a little bit, which would mean his .312 average may dip. For me, Blackmon could easily repeat his 2014 campaign of 19 home runs and 78 RBIs.

I also think an encore performance off an 18 HR, 61 RBI, .287/.328, .500 season for Nolan Arenado, who more than lived up to the billing last year, is in order as well.

In regards to Tulo and CarGo, last year I wrote the following:

“When your star shortstop and outfielder can't stay on the field, it really takes away from the offensive potential your team can realize. The Rockies have definitely built up a very nice lineup with trades and quiet free agent acquisitions recently. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are probably two of the top hitters in baseball when they're healthy, and they are in the same lineup.”

I took a lot of heat from Rockies fans, but guess what? The combo did just what I feared they’d do, and got hurt. So why should I feel differently this year? Well, I don’t. Frankly, I love Carlos Gonzalez for some reason. He is my favorite player in the game and I named my puppy after him.

But the fact of the matter is, unless or until the two leave Colorado, there’s no good reason to think they will reach even 140 games (one 15-day DL stint).

As I also stated last year, I would love to see these two be on the field for 150 or so games. I greatly enjoy watching them hit, it’s truly must watch TV when they’re up. I’m hoping for that, without question, but you just cannot count on it.

Pitching, wise, well the Rockies may just be as bad as they were last year. After Jorge De La Rosa, who’s 2014 was just lousy, this rotation has very little to lean on.

Statistically speaking, when you look at stats like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) or BABIP, there is little to indicate this pitching staff will get better, except for De La Rosa’s, who’s BABIP was .268, well below the league average.

That said, I could see De La Rosa getting back to closer to a 3.50 ERA, which has been his norm since about 2011.

And while a lot of fans want to point to Jimmy Butler and Jon Gray as the rescuers of this awful rotation, keep in mind two things. First, these two guys are going to have pitch at Coors Field regularly. Second, it is very difficult to come straight to the big leagues and be Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg. Could they strike gold with one? Yes. Both? Not likely.

At some point, it seems likely the Rockies are going to have to tap into their very underrated, and very good minor league system to likely get a big time arm in the rotation. Or they are going to have to finally bite the bullet and move Tulo or CarGo or both. And I can’t say I’d be surprised if Justin Morneau becomes a trade chip later this year for a team looking towards the postseason.

I think the Diamondbacks have made enough improvements, and have a better influx of young talent that they should leap past what has been a pretty stagnant Rockies team this winter. After all, the two finished just two games apart in the standings for the worst team in baseball.

While the future in Colorado may be bright, 2015 is going to be a rough one.