I’ve come to the conclusion, the Toronto Blue Jays are the American League’s version of the Cincinnati Reds.
The last five years, the Reds teased me into thinking they were a real threat to take the NL pennant, and yet never did. The last few years, the Blue Jays have fooled me into thinking they were different.
The first is RA Dickey.
After the 2012 Cy Young campaign Dickey put together with the Mets, he came to Toronto with high expectations after the team gave a king’s ransom for him. Two years in, Dickey is a combined 28-26 and an approximate 4 ERA. Being a light-throwing knuckleballer, Dickey has to do better.
Last year he improved the ERA, cut down on the hits and home runs (which have mightily plagued him in Toronto) and managed to maintain 200 innings thrown.
However, I don’t expect Dickey to get any better.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a great statistical indicator of improvement for pitchers. For Dickey, the last two year’s in Toronto, his FIP has been above four. To me, that indicates, at 40 years old, he’s being paid far more than his production is worth.
I don’t expect much regression, but the magical, Cy Young year in New York was not a good expectation for RA Dickey anymore.
The second guy is Jose Reyes.
I have been a Jose Reyes fan since I was a kid, but him going to Toronto has been brutal on his career. When he’s in the lineup he’s a great catalyst for this offense, but that’s the issue. He’s not on the field enough. Last year he played in 143 games, fell just short of the 100 run plateau, which a leadoff hitter in this lineup should easily reach, and his average was a solid (yet down) .287.
The Blue Jays need Reyes in their lineup. He’s still got plenty in the tank, I don’t see much of a decline in production because of his age. The only question about his production would be because of his health.
As soon as Reyes went to Toronto, I knew the turf of the Rogers Centre was going to be an issue for him. If he can manage his health and find a way to stay on the field, he makes this lineup immensely better.
I want to see Reyes do it because he’s an exciting player and the fun he has playing baseball makes baseball (and Toronto) fun to watch.
My final key to this team is Dalton Pompey.
The Blue Jays are putting a lot of trust into this young guy to step up and be a key cog in this machine. Pompey won’t directly be trying to replace the production of Melky Cabrera, but because of injuries all over the place, he may indirectly be asked to.
In the minor leagues, Pompey was an on base machine. A five year .367 OBP for the guy that may be asked to hit towards the top of the lineup suggests he knows what it takes. A real speed guy, if Pompey can get on base even close to that, let’s say, .340-.350, that is huge.
I compare Pompey’s role with Toronto to that of Miguel Montero with the Cubs. I’ve started the #MonteroWatch in Chicago, I think I might start the #PompeyWatch for the Blue Jays. I think he could be a real glue guy in this lineup.
I like Pompey this year, and I think he will develop into a tremendous asset towards the top of this lineup for many years.
Offensively, we know the Jays are going to get great production out of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. I thought the addition of Josh Donaldson was a real steal, given the struggles former-Blue Jay Brett Lawrie had over the past few years. I think Donaldson adds a great deal of respectability to this lineup, though he makes them extremely right-handed heavy.
One guy the Blue Jays are taking a high risk/high reward approach with is Justin Smoak. I think they may be hoping he becomes their Chris Davis, because so far, his short MLB career has been excruciatingly disappointing. Playing in Seattle for five years wasn’t a help on his career, as you pretty much had to get the ball to Canada to have a home run.
But I digress.
There’s potential in Smoak’s game, there’s no question about it, but his lack of production, and again, I give him a partial pass because of his location early on, indicates he may just be a dud.
But if the Blue Jays can tap into the power this big man has, there’s no telling how much an impact his left handed bat (he is a switch hitter) could have on this lineup.
To me, Smoak is a great risk for Toronto, and isn’t necessarily going to be a guy that if he doesn’t pan out, they aren’t out a whole lot.
The Blue Jays bullpen is going to be a huge question mark this year. The Jays need someone to step up and assume the closers role. Starting spring training, the prevailing thought was it would come down to prospect Aaron Sanchez and Brett Cecil, but with the devastating injury to Marcus Stroman, it would appear Sanchez will slide into the rotation, and leave the closers role to a [hurt] Brett Cecil.
As of now, this bullpen doesn’t appear to have a lot of quality depth.
This Blue Jays pitching staff isn’t exactly built with guys capable of regularly going deep into ballgames, which is going to put a huge burden on the bullpen.
While the Toronto offense once again looks to be one of the more lethal lineups in the game, I can’t help but think, how are they going to find a way to disappoint me once again in 2015.
Until the Blue Jays prove me wrong, I’m not betting the ranch on them.
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