Monday, February 23, 2015

Breakout Candidate Profile: Avisail Garcia

Looking for that next outfielder that’s going to hit you a decent to high average, hit some home runs, steal some bases, and score some runs? Basically do everything you need to help you win your league? Then look no further than White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia.


If I had been writing these pieces, last year, Garcia would have been at the top of my list. No questions about it, but I didn’t, he got hurt shortly into the season, and here we are.


What I like about Garcia is he does everything well. He hits for average (a minor league average of .273), he has decent power (45 minor league homers over seven seasons) and he scores runs (over 300 runs in seven minor league seasons).


Garcia’s troubles have come because of injury. He broke through onto a loaded 2012 Detroit Tigers team and was then traded the following summer to the White Sox. I’m not a Sox fan, though I don’t despise them, I told all my friends that were Sox fans, “you got a stud”.


To this day I believe that. And despite the injury concerns to Garcia, I will own him in every single fantasy league I play in this summer and I think he is one of the reasons the Sox make the playoffs in 2015.


But it’s not just all a gut feeling. Garcia last year was limited to just 46 games, hitting .244/.305/.413 with seven home runs and 4 stolen bases, adjusted to playing a full season, Garcia was on pace for 24 home runs, 104 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. That’s quite the season.


I’m not saying Garcia is going to be the next Mike Trout. Though they called him “Little Miggy” through the minor leagues for goodness sakes, so there’s something special about the guy.


I’m not saying he’s going to be the next Carlos Gomez, but I will point out Gomez hit 22 total minor league home runs and now he’s a 30 home run guy year after year.


Garcia’s size points to his power being more of a player this year than his speed. At six-foot-four and 240 pounds, it’s hard to imagine Garcia being able to steal 20 or more bases in a year, but one scout called Garcia “a physical specimen” and “there’s no bad weight”.


Again, not predicting it but 30 home runs could be more of a “safe bet”. With “toolsy” players like Garcia, the power potential takes the longest to materialize.


I will point out though, I mentioned his 45 minor league homers, Garcia also stole 39 minor league bases. The guy has a track record of showing he can do it all. I can’t say I’d be surprised if Garcia goes for 25 homers and 25 stolen bases.


What I like about Garcia is he will be hidden in this Sox lineup. Adding Adam LaRoche to the middle of their order with Jose Abreu and now Melky Cabrera will provide Garcia the chance to be under-the-radar, as I can only imagine what the likes of the Tigers and Indians are thinking right now knowing what this lineup could shape into by June and July.


I must admit, Garcia, at 23-years old is one of the younger breakout candidates I’ve written about, but he’s maybe the most talented, of the hitters at least.


In my opinion, if Garcia can stay on the field, I think we’re in for a guy that could be a top 50, or better outfielder that is worth a flyer at the end of your draft if you’re a fantasy baseball guy.


What is intriguing about Garcia is likely not many people know about him. He was never going to make it in Detroit, they simply didn’t have room, and with the success they had, there was little talk about their minor league system. But if you follow their writers and staffers and such, Garcia always came up as one of their top prospects.


For fantasy baseball-ers, Garcia should be available in your draft room for a long time. You are likely going to be able to wait him out, and may be able to draft a high upside DL guy and pick up Garcia when the roster spot frees up. Again, depending on how your draft goes.


I’ve never bought into this, “draft position” stuff because every league is so different from the next anymore and every draft is unbelievably non-generic.

So feel out your draft day and keep Garcia as another guy maybe to take a flyer on, and believe me, you won’t regret it.

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