Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Breakout Candidate Profile: Kennys Vargas & Oswaldo Arcia

Ladies and gentlemen, all those of you who follow me know I’m high on the Chicago Cubs and their future. No I’m not a Cubs fan, but it really doesn’t take a genius to sit back and see what that franchise is doing and think, “my God, it’s not will they win a championship, but how many”, amIright?

Well I come to to you today to say, they may be butting heads in an October near you with the Minnesota Twins.
No I’m not doing do my Twins preview early, I’m here to profile two mighty powerful hitters you may, or may not, know about, that are going to have tremendous 2015 campaigns.
It’s no secret of the powerful farm system the Twinkies have. Byron Buxton; #1 overall prospect. Maybe the most hyped player since Mike Trout. The second coming of Mike Trout. With each passing inning he logs, his legend grows.

Jose Burios, perhaps the fastest rising star in minor league baseball. Undersized but big time right handed arm with tremendous upside, and he’s already one of the most dominant pitchers this side of the Milky Way.

Alex Myer. Six-foot-nine power right hander. Top of the rotation material.

Miguel Sano (right) is one of, if not, the biggest power bat in all of minor league baseball, right? Kris Bryant’s rise has and Tommy John Surgery in 2014 have put his name on the back-burner of most prospect lists, but make no mistake about it, this guy will drop bombs and probably go Yoenis Cespedes on us in a couple home run derby’s.

But I’m here to talk about none of these guys. I’m here to give you not one, but two, additional bats in the Minnesota Twins line up this year that could, no, will, drop 30 homers, before Buxton or Sano even step foot on the Target Field soil.

I’ve been going one-by-one on these previews but we’re going to scrunch both into one today.
And we start with right fielder Oswaldo Arcia.

Like Marcell Ozuna, you might think it would be difficult to say a guy coming off a 20 home run year can break out, but I hope to show you it will be entirely possible in 2014.

To start out our discussion, it should first be noted Arcia wasn’t completely healthy in 2014. Playing in just over 100 games, Arcia’s time at the big league level was very limited. logging 410 at-bats, he hit a mere .230, dropped 20 and drove in 57.

2014 was Arcia’s first taste of big league action and much to the chagrin of the Twins and their fans, it really did not go as planned. Arcia was never able to get things going as early season injuries hampered him throughout the year.

But 2015 will be different.

If we take a look at what Oswaldo has done in the minor leagues, it becomes clearly evident, when the guy is healthy, he rakes.

Arcia’s worst level of the minor leagues was High-A where he hit a mere .286 in two seasons and 15 homers. Things only got better for the lefty. While his time at Double-A and Triple-A were limited, Arcia is primed for to shatter his minor league averages, particularly in the power department.

Arcia for his minor league career, winter leagues included, was a .304 hitter. Given regression because of the rise in talent level he’ll be facing, and the enormous ballpark Target Field is, I think it’s fair to say regression is in order. I think his major league numbers of around .240 are a far cry from what he could actually do. Hitting .300 as a power hitter is very difficult in the big leagues, I think anywhere from .270-.290 at the highest is what we can expect, but the power I think is poised to explode.

To give a good reference point, in 2012, Arcia jumped all over the map. He played winter ball, High-A to Double-A and raked to the tune of a .301 average, 27 homers and 135 RBIs. Albeit at Double-A of all places, he had the most complete stat-line.

Truthfully, if he gets close to that average line this year, we’re looking at a real monster in the middle of the Twins order. I think 27 homers is very realistic for Oswaldo, and with the guy I’ll touch on next protecting him in the lineup, I don’t think there’s any reason he couldn’t go for 30.

For fantasy players, there’s a lot of positions I can think of you may have to focus on early and pass on outfield for a guy like Arcia later. I’ve always followed the “Outfielders are a dime-a-dozen” philosophy and try to wait out guys like Arcia or even Ozuna if possible. It’s generally worked out. I waited on Starling Marte a few years ago, and he turned into a great pickup late. I waited out on Yasiel Puig before he was Yasiel Puig, and obviously he is a top-flight outfielder now.

What I’m saying is, while I wouldn’t pass on a top outfielder like Andrew McCutchen or Carlos Gomez early, I might wait to fill my 3rd or 4th outfield spots (depending on the depth of your league) until later rounds for guys like Ozuna and Arcia. Or even a guy I’ll talk about later this month, Steven Souza.

Projecting 30 home runs in 2015 for Kennys Vargas, to me, is a no brainer. At a gaudy 6-foot-5 and 275 pounds, Vargas better fits the mold of an elite pass-rushing DE in the NFL than a power bat in the middle of a major league baseball lineup. But he is the latter, and if I’m Minnesota, I’m more than thankful American football hasn’t caught on quite yet in the Caribbean.

Vargas is a relatively unknown commodity at this point, but I have a feeling by late May, or early June, you may not have the opportunity to hold out watching this guy on the waiver wire if he passes through your draft. And if you watch the MLB Network on a night-in-night-out basis, it won’t take long for too many of his nights to go unnoticed.

Looking closer at Vargas, his minor league numbers are less than spectacular. His best season in was in 2012 at High-A where the kid went for a .267 average and 19 homers in 125 games. 2012 was in fact his breakout season in the minor leagues, where before that he did relatively nothing worth mentioning.

So why do I bring up Vargas a potential 30 homer guy poised to do some serious damage in 2014.
I was able to catch a number of his at-bats late in the season last year, and I must admit, the patience he shows at the plate is nothing short of above-average for a guy not only that big, but a guy that is a power hitter. In 125 games at High-A, Kennys struck out 105 times. Simple mathematics tells you that’s less than once per game.

I also point to his contact rates. Very legit and points to progression as it relates to a better batting average at the very least. A 73% contact rate last year and almost 90% on pitches in the strike zone. If he can square up the good pitches he’s swinging at, it could be a monster year for the 25-year old who is drawing comparisons as a “switch-hitting David Ortiz”.

Vargas has yet to see a game at Triple-A, and barring injury he likely won’t, and while the power potential Vargas possesses hasn’t yet consistently translated, I think in 2015 the guy is due for a big-time year, adding just another power bat in what is inevitable to be a powerful Twins lineup in another year or so.

Because of the inconsistencies in Vargas’ power numbers, I can’t tell you letting him slip through the draft is a thing not to do. But, don’t be surprised if someone takes him late as a flyer.

If he is available to you through the waiver wire, watch him very closely, at least check him out every other day, and don’t let him go too long sitting there if he gets off to a good start.

Also check out my profile previews for Marcell Ozuna and Travis d'Arnaud.
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