Thursday, February 5, 2015

Breakout Candidate Profile: Marcell Ozuna

Friends, I come to you today with a question for you.

Do you ever get in the draft room, your draft is going great; you’ve got all your sleeper picks, Zack Greinke fell to you in the fourth round after you passed because you needed power, you’ve found that under the radar guy, or a guy you think no one knows about, and then your buddy, the only guy you’ve told about this particular player, goes and grabs your mancrush? Or even worse, the guy in your league who has no idea who he is grabs him because he saw his picture in a Matthew Berry article or in a Tweet by some second rate fantasy service?

We’ve all been there, am I right?

Well, don’t let that happen with this guy, because I’m telling you now, when you reach to get him just to be safe, it will be the best decision you make.

So without further ado, Marcell Ozuna. (pictured right)
Of all the talent the Marlins have brought up in recent years, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Andrew Heaney (pre-trade with the Dodgers of course), the most under-the-radar and underrated is probably Marcell Ozuna.

After a year where he hit .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers and 85 RBIs, it’s certainly valid to say, Seth, how is this guy a breakout candidate after a year like that?

I’m glad you asked!

While that isn’t a stat-line worthy of a must-have or a reach in any fantasy draft, I want to point out a few things to you that may sway your opinion.

Ozuna mashed in the first month of the season to a .310/.364/.480 line in March/April with four homers and 16 RBIs. And I can’t speak for any leagues other than the one’s I played in, but his ownership when through the roof.

The proceeding months though, Ozuna’s season was Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde like. Let me be more specific, his average was sporadic, his home run totals remained relatively consistent all year. I’ll address his power later. 

 In May, Ozuna hit just .200. He then leveled out in June and July, going .277 and .284 respectively. He fell off the table again in August, hitting .230 and picked it back up in September to finish the year and hit .316.

Like I said, his power was pretty consistent all year. He went for five in April/March, then five, five, two (July - All-Star Break being considered), then three and four.

There is a little bit of a drop off, but, in my estimation, Ozuna has a couple things working in his favor that could make him primed for an even better year than the 20-plus homers he jacked in 2014.
First, it was Marcell’s first full big league season. He got a taste of action in late 2013, but for his first full season, the stat line mentioned above really isn’t too bad.

Especially when you consider he came straight up from Double-A. Ozuna has yet to play an inning at Triple-A, extremely rare for any player, no matter the caliber.

Additionally, the Marlins lineup last year was an incredibly young group. You look at fellow outfielder Christian Yelich was also just in his first full big league season, same for Adeiny Hechavarria, and really other than Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Casey McGehee, the veteran hitters were limited. (If you want to consider Giancarlo Stanton a veteran hitter, that’s fair)
So all that to say, there’s a couple factors I give Ozuna that suggests he may be poised for an even bigger year than in 2014.

First, the drastic splits from month to month show it was pretty obvious Ozuna hadn’t been past Double-A. The most games he’d played in up to last year was 131, the most he’d played in the minor leagues by almost 70 games. Then in 2014 Ozuna played in 153 games. That is quite the jump for such a young player. I think this suggest he may been a little over his head in knowing how to pace himself through the grueling major league baseball season, but I think we can expect him to be [much] better in 2015, which to me, would be more consistency.

Now, Marcell hit .270 last year. Could he hit a better average, given the disparity in his month-to-month splits, optimistically I say yes. However, his track record says otherwise.


Ozuna’s best average in the minor leagues in a given year was .316. That was between High-A and Double-A where he played just 14 games. Prior to that? .313 at rookie ball. His minor league career average is .274.


The power though could be interesting. Ozuna hit better than 20 homers in four of his six minor league seasons in a fraction of the games and at-bats. However, the two years he played in more than 100 games, he hit 23 and 24 homers. So again, could the 23 home runs last year be the standard? Sure, but personally, I do think there’s room for that total to get closer to 30 and I think the average could peak at perhaps .290, though I think .265-.275 is more likely, and more than adequate especially if he’s going to go for 30 homers.


Which gets to my final point on Ozuna. Growth in Ozuna’s approach not only could be attributed to the simple learning curve of a major league baseball player, but the veterans around him in 2015 should be of great value to his maturity in approach and understanding of the game.


The Fish acquired two guys I believe will be worth their weights in gold. Martin Prado and Michael Morse. Prado came to the Fish in the Eovaldi to the Yankees deal, and Morse signed as a free agent. Those are two veteran hitters, that he’ll likely be called on to protect in the lineup, that not only have a history of success in the game, but they’ve played for winners in the past and know what it takes in say, June and July to keep yourself fresh for pennant chase in August and September, which the Marlins figure to be in.

In addition to those guys, Ozuna will have a real speedster in Dee Gordon at the top of the lineup, and if Stanton doesn’t hoard all the RBI opportunities, there could be plenty of RBIs to be had with Gordon and Yelich and even Stanton getting on base ahead of this young slugger.


I don’t think it’s a real stretch to say I’m high on Ozuna this year, and of all the guys I have written about, and will write about, Ozuna to me, is almost as sure of a thing as you’ll find.

Consider yourself warned.

I say again, I promise you, if you have to reach to possibly get this guy, do it! Letting him get to someone else in your league may be the biggest regret you have in this year’s fantasy season.
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