2015 Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have been, for the better part of a decade, the class of the National League Central, the National League and baseball as a whole. And while the gap in the Central is closing fast with the up and coming Cubs, the resurgent Milwaukee Brewers and the suddenly consistent Pittsburgh Pirates, I expect the Cardinals to once again remain atop the Central and to be players deep into October.

OK, that’s my prediction, preview over.

HAHA! If only it were that simple.

The one thing the Cardinals have, that perhaps no other team in all of baseball can say, is they have quality talent and depth from 1-8 in their lineup. Perhaps only the Boston Red Sox can make that claim.

Despite the tragic and unfortunate passing of Oscar Taveras, the Cardinals were able to use their pitching depth and minor talent to go out and acquire Jason Heyward.

Being an NL East and long time Braves hater, I have never been a fan of Hayward. No, not because he’s good and is on a long list of Met-killers, but because personally I think he’s as overrated as any player to move through the Braves system.

Make no mistake about, Heyward’s numbers are always solid. He’ll hit you 15-25 home runs, get around a .270 average, and can even steal upwards of 15-20 bags, but the reason I think he’s overrated, is because he came up as this guy that was a perennial 30/30, five tool player. Obviously he hasn’t lived up to that, and while I have zero statistical or physical evidence, there’s something about playing in St. Louis that gets guys to a level they’ve never been to. I point to Jeff Weaver, who was an enigma his whole career, then came to St. Louis and put up gaudy numbers in the postseason and helped the Cardinals win the 2006 World Series.

Or how about Kyle Lohse, who had been nothing but a disappointment upon his arrival to Cardinal Nation, then all of a sudden he looks like Chris Carpenter in his prime.

Point being, I maintain Jason Heyward is overrated, but it would not surprise me in the least if Heyward is an MVP candidate at year’s end.

After a career year in 2013 in which he finished a surprising fourth in the MVP voting, Matt Carpenter took a step back in 2014. His set career highs in strikeouts, walks and games played. Take that as you will.

His average dropped off majorly, going from .318 to .272. A ridiculous Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .359 in ‘13 and went to .318 in ‘14. BABIP is a very good indicator of improvement or regression, and the higher the number (.359 is exceptional, in fact elite) it is very difficult to maintain.

All that to say, it is no surprise Carpenter regressed.

Realistically, Matt Carpenter is a .300 hitter and consistently hits 30% or better line drives (which is well above league average).

Again, all that to say, I don’t know that Carpenter will be in the top of the MVP voting again, but he’s a solid major league player, and I expect .300 with an elite OBP, we’re talking well above .350.

Now that he is finally getting a shot in the rotation, I am more than stoked to see what Carlos Martinez does. Personally, I thought he should have beat out Joe Kelly last year for the fifth starters job, but none-the-less, Kelly is gone, Martinez “won” the job in the spring and now he finally gets his chance as a starter.

Minor league Carlos Martinez was dominant at every stop.

He may have struggled initially at some levels, but once he learned the level, he elevated his game and showed the ridiculous stuff he has.

I wrote a couple years ago, Martinez is one of the maybe dozen pitchers I was ready to see get his shot at the big leagues, and a solid season later, he gets it.

Martinez has been hit and miss at best in his time as a starter in St. Louis, however, I attribute that to the shuffling from the bullpen to the rotation then back to the bullpen then a spot start here and there and never really have a concrete role with the organization.

Again, now he has it. His stuff plays in major league baseball. His delivery, fastball and slider combination and his size are eerily similar to Pedro Martinez.

Don’t mix my words with me saying, he’s the next Pedro Martinez. I’m not saying that.

But a lot of his attributes are in that conversation.

Truthfully, if the Cardinals can be patient with him, that patience should pay off very soon, and the Shelby Miller void in the rotation will quickly be filled.

If I may be so bold, one of the most underrated, yet most important cogs in this lineup, is Jon Jay.

Out of “The U”, one of the elite college baseball programs in America, Jay struggled in his first several years of pro ball, but quickly figured it out after a couple years and now should be a mainstay at the top of the Cardinals lineup.

To me, Jay is as consistent as Carpenter. Perennially with an OBP that well exceeds .350, an average that will be around .300, his left/right splits are amazingly consistent, and his line drive rates rival Carpenter’s.

To me, there’s no reason Jay shouldn’t be an everyday player in St. Louis.

To me, Jay could be a real X-Factor.

At age 35, Matt Holliday continues to be a top-tier outfielder and produce with little decline from year to year.

Michael Wacha returns from an arm injury that kept him out most of 2014. His fastball/chaneup combo was devastating in year one, in the same piece about Martinez, I felt he needed to develop a third pitch. Personally, if Wacha wants to be an elite starter, he needs a third pitch. I could be way off base, but few elite starters are two-pitch hurlers.

I also look for a breakout year from Kolton Wong.

Wong has improved year after year in the big leagues, and has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of a year and some change in the bigs. The kid is clutch, now it’s time for him to be consistent.

The Cardinals have to be, should be, and are the favorites in the NL Central, and while the gap is closing fast, they should take this division in ‘15 and have the pieces to make serious noise heading to the postseason.