Now inside the top ten of the power rankings, it’s time to look at the Pittsburgh Pirates who come in at number nine.
What you like about the Pirates is they have found consistency in recent years. After some late season collapses, the last couple of years, the Bucs have grown up a lot and have learned to finish, making the one game Wild Card game two straight years.
Now it’s time for the Buccos to take the next step.
Big question, can they?
I’ll tell you why they can, and why they can’t.
Josh Harrison had a career year in 2014 and he was a real shot in the arm for the Pirates, adding a complimentary bat to the trio of Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez and Starling Marte.
Can Harrison repeat his .315/.347/.490 with 13 homers, 52 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases? I don’t think so but I think he can easily continue to be a key contributor in this lineup.
Two statistics that Harrison completely obliterated that are going to be almost impossible to maintain were his line drive rate and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
His line drive was a ridiculous 30%, well above the league average. But even if that number drops to say, 25%, that is still stellar and should allow Harrison to continue to hit for a high average.
The other number that would indicate his crazy high average was a career high .353 BABIP. That number is almost certain to drop, it is just not sustainable. However, even if it drops by 20-points, at .330, that is still a great number and would indicate Harrison continues to be an everyday player for Pittsburgh.
Another guy I look at that should be in for a better year is Starling Marte.
This is a guy I’ve been high on for a long time and while he’s been a good professional player to this point, he needs to find consistency, and I think he does.
We all know about what he did when he got moved to the five spot in the Pirates lineup.
To me, Marte’s power has always been underrated, and I can’t say I’d be surprised if he comes up with a few more home runs in that five spot, and if that average stays steady.
What I’m encouraged by with Marte, is his line drive rates and BABIP have all improved in his three years in the big leagues. In fact, his three year BABIP is .363. To me that is enough sustained success to indicate his average should be good and if he can find consistency from start to finish in the season, he could be in for a huge year.
Hovering at around 15 home runs the past few years, I’d love to see him get that number to 17-20 and become a consistent 20/20 player.
Personally, I think Marte is in for a 2014 Michael Brantley like 2015.
After a monster 2013, Pedro Alvarez took a major step backwards in 2014. Not even reaching 20 home runs and hitting a poor .230-whatever, that simply won’t cut it for him this year.
If the Pirates are going to return to the postseason, Alvarez must be a power hitter that tops 30 home runs. Nothing about his game indicates he’ll ever be an average hitter, and if he’s not going to hit 20 home runs, Alvarez is going to find himself in a bench role in a hurry.
I’m not sure what to expect for him in 2015, honestly. I do know, Alvarez is such a big key for Pittsburgh and they have to get production from him.
Of course the big offseason acquisition was Jung Ho Kang. After dominating Korea, Kang has come to the States and struggled in spring training.
While I don't’ think he’ll ever hit 40 home runs in America, but I think that power definitely plays and I think eventually, he’ll adjust and find himself in the everyday lineup for the Pirates.
I find it very hard to believe they paid him a ton of money for a part time utility role.
Other than Garrett Cole, the Pirates pitching staff has me very concerned.
After a nice comeback year in 2013, Francisco Liriano took a step back in 2014. While making more starts, he logged the same amount of innings as he did in 13. To me, that says he wasn’t as effective last year.
Liriano has clearly found a home in Pittsburgh, but if he can make 30 starts, and win 12-15 games, he’ll be a nice 3 or 4 starter.
One guy I hope finally puts it all together is Jeff Locke. When Locke pitches, he’s very solid. But therein lies the problem, when he pitches.
Locke needs to be on the field healthy, and make 30-33 starts. If Locke can be in the 3.5 ERA with 12-15 wins, the Pirates pitching rotation will be vastly better and should give this bullpen a nice break.
At the age of 38, I question how much AJ Burnett has left in the tank and just how much he can contribute to the Pirates. I will admit, part of the investment in Burnett is his leadership and toughness he brings to the clubhouse. But then it comes down to what’s on the field, and Burnett has to be more than an intangible contributor if the Pirates are going to be contenders in a quickly improving NL Central.
If Jameson Taillon can show he’s recovered from Tommy John Surgery, don’t be surprised to see him with the big club as soon as June and looking to help this team back into the postseason.
A lot of Pirates fans are really looking forward to this guy, and pairing him at the top of the rotation in another year with Garrett Cole is going to make the Bucs extremely dangerous.
Like a few years ago when Pittsburgh and Cincinnati took the Wild Card spots for the first ever play in game, I easily think two teams could come out of the Central for the Wild Card, but to me, the NL Wild Card comes down to three teams, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Miami.
I think Miami is the weakest link because of their lack of experience as a winner.
I think Milwaukee learns a lot from their late season collapse and makes a run at not only the Wild Card but the National League Central.
Ultimately, I think the Pirates get in, but they are going to have to fight off very good teams this year to get there.
No comments:
Post a Comment