Sunday, April 5, 2015

2015 Preview: Cleveland Indians

Having just completed my 2015 predictions, I picked the Cleveland Indians to go to the World Series.

That might be the absolute craziest thing I do all year.

But I don’t think the Tribe having a big year is outside the realm of possibility.


First of all, this pitching staff is utterly ridiculous.

Returning Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber looks to continue on his best year of his career. Regression is definitely likely in his ERA and innings thrown, however, I think he’s in for a fine season and likely repeating as a 200 inning pitcher with around 15-18 wins once again, and if you can him making anything north of 28 starts, you’ll absolutely take it.

I look for a breakout year from two guys in this Indians rotation, and that’s Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco.

Both Bauer and Carrasco haven’t had the smoothest introductions to the big leagues, but both have shown signs of major improvement in 2015.

For Bauer, he’s always been regarded as a top of the rotation pitcher, and sometimes a personality as quirky as him, sometimes it can just be best to let them loose and do their thing. It worked for Milwaukee with Carlos Gomez, it has worked with other guys as well.

Bauer has shown improvement in each year in the big leagues and made a career high 26 starts in ‘14. At just the age of 24, Bauer is in for a big time year in my opinion.

For Carrasco, he’s always had the ability but like Bauer, he’s a quirky personality, and also like Bauer, Carrasco has shown signs he can be a brilliant major league pitcher.

In 134 innings in 2014, Carrasco threw to a 2.55 ERA with a career high 140 strikeouts.

I look for Carrasco to log close to 180 innings (provided he can keep an even-keel personality), come close to 200 strikeouts and turn into the top of rotation arm we’ve all been waiting for him to become.

A lot of the Indians success comes down to the top three arms in their rotation and the thing about the American League is there is absolutely zero starting pitching depth in the league. Almost every team (other than maybe Seattle and Tampa) has issues on the back end of the pitching rotation.

The one thing about the Tribe lineup, is it’s not overpowering on paper, but they can get on base and score runs.

Last year I called for Michael Brantley to have a 20/20 year, and the young man delivered with a career year and finished third in the MVP voting in the American League. He set career highs in hits, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, OBP and slugging.

What’s encouraging about Brantley’s performance, is his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) has always been high, above .300, and now the statistics are starting to indicate he is figuring it out consistently.

Additionally, his line drive rate has improved every year he’s been in the major leagues, and at 31% in 2014, if he can keep spraying the ball all over the field, he could easily follow up last year’s career performance with an equally impressive 2015.

To me, the key to the Indians lineup is Michael Bourn.

Michael Bourn has been a major disappointment since his arrival in Cleveland. With all the injuries over the past few years, the days of the speedster stealing better than 30 SBs a year are likely behind him, but Bourn can still be an effective big leaguer by getting on base and using the threat of his speed to provide opportunities for guys in the middle of the order like Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Nick Swisher and Brandon Moss.

And while I don’t expect Bourn to remain healthy nor be as good as he used to be. That said, there’s two outfielders I think could make in impact in Cleveland this year in an outfield that leaves a lot to be desired.

I think Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey (left) could be making an impact in Cleveland later this summer.

Both players I really like a great deal and think should be regulars in the not so distant future.

Ramsey is a do everything well while there isn’t one aspect to his game that is exceptional. He’s an all around solid player. A college hitter, Ramsey should move rather quickly to the big leagues as he’s proven he can hit at the upper levels.

For Naquin, he too was an elite college hitter that has moved quickly through the minor leagues. He has a great power speed combination that may not produce 30/30 type of potential but could be another Michael Brantley type of guy.

Tribe fans are also anticipating the arrival of elite prospect Francisco Lindor. There are a ton of top shortstops on the rise between now and next year, and to me, the least acclaimed of them all is Lindor.

While a few could be immediate impact guys, Lindor will have the biggest impact because of his defense and could easily be quite the hitter.

The Indians already have a pretty balanced lineup, and if Ramsey, Naquin and Lindor come up and make in impact, to me, that could put them over the top in the American League.

At the very least, I see the Indians making the playoffs as a Wild Card, but I could easily see them contending for the AL Central and finally topping Detroit.

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