After a long weekend trip that took me to my first MLB game this summer, I’m back home ready to hit the [writing] board.
Last week I started a stretch run preview with the National League East and spent a good amount of time talking about a non-contender more than the contenders, mainly because I feel the two beasts of the east are shoe-ins for the playoffs.
That said, the western division of the National League is going to be very, very appealing. As of today, (Tuesday, July 22) you’ve got the Dodgers and Giants tied for the NL West, and not a soul within sight after that. At 56-45, and 55-44 respectively, I think only one of the Dodgers and Giants can make the playoffs because of the four-team race in the NL Central and the top to bottom strong Nats and Braves in the East.
If one team doesn’t runaway with this thing before September, the NL West could very well come down to the final two and a half weeks of the season. The Dodgers and Giants played ten times in the first six weeks of the season and play one of the more meaningful late July series’ this weekend in San Francisco.
I don’t want to make too much of this coming weekend’s series, but things could not shape up much better for Don Mattingly’s staff. He sends Zack Greinke (who was not good against St. Louis Saturday), then Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu (right) to the hill to face San Fran. If you’re the Dodgers, it could not be more crucial to start that runaway train with at least a pair of victories this weekend, if not a sweep.
What’s intriguing about this race will be the trade deadline. I think one team needs to make a move, and I think the other can stand pat and be just fine, though I doubt they will.
Publicly, the Dodgers are saying they aren’t going to part with elite, not just top prospects, they are elite prospects for the ultimate prize of Cy Young winner David Price. I stand on the fence on this one. Normally I’d say, you can’t deal the kind of talent LA has that Tampa wants for David Price. But stand back a second and think about this. In the playoffs, it is likely the Dodgers are going to have to beat one of Atlanta, St. Louis or Washington (in no specific order). Each team runs at least four deep in their rotation. LA right now can comfortably put Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu out there and feel good about your chances. But turning the ball over to Dan Haren or Josh Beckett can’t be comfortable. Yes, both guys have been big in the playoffs in their careers, but they are past their golden years, and with the innings they are logging this year, I believe October will really show their age.
Now, the Dodgers are deep enough in the minors that parting with Joc Pederson (left), Corey Seager, and Julio Urias will definitely hurt their system, but it wouldn’t devastate it. The Dodgers have been drafting exceptionally the past decade and have been tremendous with their international signings (see Yasiel Puig, Alex Guerrero, and Urias). The kickback of getting a Price type of pitcher would send the Dodgers beyond favorites to take the NL crown, it may just make them the favorites to win the whole damn thing.
I know I have maintained the Rays will send Price to Texas ultimately, I think the case for the Dodgers makes a lot of sense as well.
If the Dodgers can’t get a deal done for Price with Tampa, do they need a starter? I maintain they can stand pat with the team they have and be just fine heading down the stretch and into the postseason. But what are their other options at this point?
You look at the scope of major league baseball, and of course, Price is the ultimate prize for, likely, a contender. But I look at a team like Philadelphia, and reports are already surfacing of LA and Philly discussing Jonathan Papelbon. How feared would a Dodgers pen be with Paps at the back end with Kenley Jensen? You’d really have to get the Dodgers early if you want to beat them. But I think, if you’re going to start relieving Philly of bad contracts, why not take another? I’m thinking a guy like Cliff Lee?
Lee in the postseason has ice in his veins and welcomes the millions of eyes on him. The Dodgers could likely get Lee and comfortably take on his money. I also think he could a slightly cheaper option than Price. I very much doubt LA would pay their top three prospects for a 33-year old closer and a 35-year old lefty, but they’d pay a nice fee I’m sure. I think Alex Guerrero should be a nice price plus maybe one of Seager or Pederson and then maybe a pitcher like Zach Lee or even Chris Reed.
The Dodgers also have to consider their outfield situation if Joc Pederson stays around. You can’t have five guys play three spots. I think moving Matt Kemp is too risky. If he returns to the superstar, MVP form from just a few years ago, you are forever kicking yourself. I think the likely two options to move are Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford. But who is going to take them and their contracts is going to be the big question for LA. Reports have surfaced that Crawford could likely be cut, but then LA is stuck paying him and getting nothing from him. Maybe not the worst scenario given his productivity of late, but that’s a tough pill to swallow. Ethier surely has to have value somewhere. A left handed, versatile outfielder with power has value on the open market. I could see a fringe team like Seattle having an interest in him. To say the least, what the Dodgers do could decide their fate in the National League West.
If the Dodgers don’t make any moves, I think that is just fine because this group still hasn’t put their best lineup on the field. Alex Guerrero (left) is quickly recovering from having part of his ear bit off and once he makes his return to the Dodgers lineup, I think he has an immediate impact. He’s tearing through every level he stops at, whether in recovery, or in his time at Triple-A. Guerrero’s bat was brought in to have an impact in 2014, and it definitely should as soon as early August, if not quicker.
Then there’s Pederson, who is probably the top Triple-A hitter right now. The Dodgers won’t let his talent stay on the farm, especially given he’s showing he has no more to prove at hte lower levels. I think the best from the Dodgers offense is yet to come, which is scary for San Francisco.
But that doesn’t mean San Francisco can’t win this thing. A couple big wins this weekend would be a major boost in the confidence department.
I threw out a few weeks ago the idea of the Giants going out and getting second baseman Chase Utley from Philadelphia, but then the Giants went and got the quickly declining Dan Uggla, and signed him to a minor league contract. Truthfully, I think Uggla’s best days are behind him. I think he left those in Miami. But he’s certainly worth a chance if you're the Giants. I still think Chase Utley should be on the Giants radar. He’s obviously a winner, but despite being 35-years old, he’s having one of his most productive years as a major leaguer. I think the Phillies will have more suitors than just San Francisco, and if you want to know more about why I think Utley is a good fit in the bay, check out my trade deadline piece on him and other Phillies.
But for San Francisco, they could use a lot of things at this point. I think a bullpen arm couldn’t hurt, and I think a starting pitcher could be useful as well. I don’t think San Francisco is going to go putting their names into the hat for David Price, but I think pitchers like Bartolo Colon, Ian Kennedy or even Jake Peavy could be guys the Giants would take on. The Kennedy situation is tricky because he’s within the division, but San Diego is so far from competing, I don’t think San Diego should balk at the chance to get decent talent for someone, even if it is within the division.
One through five, the Giants rotation is pretty solid. It’s not the best, but it’s good enough to get them to the playoffs. I do think, especially if LA ends up with David Price or Cliff Lee, they Giants must get a starter to solidify the back end of their rotation.
The Giants bullpen, I really like a lot. I was surprised to see Bruce Bochy quickly give the hook to Sergio Romo as the closer, but in a tight race like they are in, you can’t lose too many games in the 9th before you try something else, so I understand why he did what he did. That said, Romo hasn’t gotten any better since his demotion, which the Giants can’t feel good about. Jeremy Affeldt and Jean Machi have been terrific. And Santiago Casilla has been great all year round.
What is impressive about the Giants is their starting pitching has been adequate, even Madison Bumgarner has had more than his share of rough outings, but despite that, the Giants offense is really coming around. Since leaving Washington, it seems Michael Morse has found a home. Slashing to a line of .277/.329/.491 in 2014 with 14 homers. After a putrid start, Pablo Sandoval has really picked things up and has upped his average to .278 with a .326 OBP. Sandoval I wasn’t too concerned about, and I’m very glad to see him turn the corner offensively this season. Then you throw in the .303/.360/.474 line with 12 homers from Hunter Pence (right), and the Giants have found one of their most balanced offenses in years.
For me, what is encouraging about what San Francisco is doing is their ability to score runs. Among contenders in the National League right now, the Giants have scored the fifth most runs (to give a point of reference, there's eight teams within five games of a playoff spot). But they’re not compilers. The Giants average four runs a game, and have only scored double-digit runs three times in 100 games (as of Tuesday, July 22). While being shut out 10 times, the Giants are scoring runs and are doing so consistently.
If they add Utley to Pence, Panda (Sandoval), Morse and Posey, this lineup all of a sudden becomes able to score runs at a greater clip than they already do. While it’s not the splash of Jeff Samardzija, getting Chase Utley, I think would have to worry Los Angeles, no matter how good their pitching is.
I think the Giants have a very favorable schedule as we head into August and September. Relatively speaking, the Dodgers do not. Like I pointed out towards the top of this piece, the Giants meet up with LA six times in the last 16 games.
When I first started thinking about this race down the stretch, I was giving the edge to the Dodgers, but after comparing schedules, the post-All-Star break for San Francisco is much friendlier than LA.
If the Giants can’t take advantage of their favorable schedule, I think this gives the Dodgers a huge edge in the final two and a half weeks in September.
Ultimately, I do think the depth of pitching and talent in Los Angeles is enough to get them back to a division title, but San Francisco will make it close all the way through. I see LA winning the division by no more than five games and I bet we see a lot of jockeying for position in that number one spot.
It will truthfully be a shame if both teams don’t make the playoffs, and like I said before, I think only one does in this year’s National League.
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