One of the most eventful trade deadlines in the history of major league baseball left nothing to be desired. There was surprise, intrigue, and last minute drama that kept many at the edge of their seats.
This afternoon I’ll present my reaction and the winner’s and losers of this year’s non-waiver trade deadline.
I thought the biggest winner on the day was actually the Detroit Tigers. Granted, Billy Beane and company really went out and set the tone for the day by nabbing Lester, but I thought he may have pulled the trigger too early. There’s a lot of counter points that could be made to that. For instance, if Billy waited any longer, Boston may have gotten a better offer and would have upped the ante. Definitely fair and likely true.
To address what the Tigers did though, not only did the Tigers answer the bell to what Billy Beane and the A’s started the day with, but they kept themselves at the top of the conversation of the best team in the league. I could go on and on about how the Tigers have the last three Cy Young winners and how their offense is still exceptional even though they gave up their offensive catalyst in Austin Jackson. But I thought the Rays lost majorly in this deal. I’ve liked Drew Smyly a lot but it’s my opinion, he hasn’t shown much progress since he’s been in the major leagues. If there is a team that can get him to make that leap, it is the Tampa Bay Rays. But is a once highly regarded top prospect, a once highly thought of major league shortstop (Nick Franklin) and a Low-A shortstop (but promising prospect from all accounts) enough for David Price?
I for one do not.
Nick Franklin is still well thought of around baseball and Seattle has proven they have had their struggles developing productive middle-infielders. Can Franklin find it in Tampa? I do believe so, but I have my doubts.
I thought Detroit came out way ahead in the deal. I thought Seattle received adequate compensation when they got Austin Jackson.
Justin Verlander has struggled in the regular season but seems to find another gear when October arrives. The more innings this guy logs the more I wonder if he can continue to find that second gear for the postseason, but for now at least, we have no reason to think he'll slow down in October.
When you're rolling out Verlander, Scherzer and Price (likely in no particular order), the Tigers are very well set, and they have Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello, who are having terrific 2014 campaigns, that could start a game three or four if the Tigers up two-games-to-none or even three-games-to-none. At worst, they end up in the bullpen, strengthening what's been a less than acceptable unit so far.
Like I said, not only did the Tigers answer the bell to what Billy Beane did this year, but they have three controllable aces heading into next year, while the A's are likely to lose Lester.
I will address more on what the Oakland A's did later on, but I want to move on to my second bigger at the trade deadline:
The Boston Red Sox.
I tried to get as many perspectives on what the Red Sox did all day, from whether they are taking the Chicago Cubs approach and stockpiling talent to be a monster in, say 2016, a la the Houston Astros. Or if they are stockpiling to have major trade chips on hand for the offseason.And it was really a mixed bag among writers on Twitter, experts on TV, but I thought the telling piece of information was an interview I had heard with David Ortiz. I could not find the transcript (it was before Friday’s Red Sox/Yankees game on the MLB Network if you’re curious), but it basically sounded like Ortiz was informed the Red Sox were planning to rebuild for next year. Part of that has come with speculation Jon Lester would resign with Boston.
Would Red Sox brass lie to the most popular person in the northeast? I very much doubt it.
While this idea isn’t completely original, I’ve got some ideas that are. The Red Sox aren’t going to wait for the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez to re-emerge as an elite prospect. Rodriguez has really struggled in Double-A this year. I think the Red Sox are going to be after some pretty big bats going into this winter.
The prevailing target is the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton.
Stanton undoubtedly has to be disgruntled with the way things have played out in Miami the past few years, but I think Fish making a move to bolster an already impressive young pitching staff by acquiring one of Houston’s top arms, Jarred Cosart was probably a selling point to the league’s best slugger. Will Giancarlo’s mind be changed by one move at the deadline where Miami’s chances are slim to none to make the postseason> It is unlikely, but I have to think it’s going to be awfully tough to pry him from Miami when this young team is showing a lot of progress much quicker than some anticipated, and a lot of it is thanks to the MVP like season Stanton is having.
So where do the Red Sox go if Giancarlo may not be available?
I think the Red Sox target not one, but two stars out west. The talks of Troy Tulowitzki being traded have only warmed up compared to what we’re going to hear about after the World Series concludes. The predominant opinion among baseball experts is that he will wind up in New York with either the Mets or the Yankees. Being a Mets fan, I’m quite OK with this. But I think Boston may offer the best option for Colorado, given the recent influx in talent they just acquired Thursday. I think they will be able to meet Colorado’s ridiculously, yet fair, asking price, and they’ll have enough left over for more. So if you’re asking me, is that a prediction, Tulo to Boston in the offseason?
No.
It’s a prediction of Tulo to Boston at some point before the start of the 2016 season. I could see Colorado not parting with their star this year in hopes of their young pitchers and some more young boppers coming to the big leagues and giving the Rockies a shot at the NL West title next year. When that inevitably falls apart, because you just can’t pitch in Coors Field, Tulo will be the first on the trade block.
Then I see the Red Sox after one of two more stars out west, and I think these deals could be imminent this offseason. I think Boston targets the struggling LA Dodgers superstar, Matt Kemp, or the oft-injured Rockies slugger, Carlos Gonzalez. While Matt Kemp has played well in recent days, you want to see him sustain that success over a long period of time. I don’t know that he can do that this year. Matt Kemp is undoubtedly damaged goods at this point, and while he’s been able to handle a tough, big market, I don’t know that a change of scenery won’t be the worst things for a relatively young, extraordinarily talented player.
It’s no secret the Dodgers the have a logjam of outfielders, and if they don’t deal the issue before 2014 concludes, they will have to deal with that in the offseason. They have one of the top outfield prospects in all of baseball, Joc Pederson (right) more than ready for a big league spot. That would give them five outfielders four three spots. I think Kemp could be a prime target by a lot of teams, and I think someone a lot of teams would want. If you’re LA, why not keep your farm system freshly stocked by dealing the guy that’s going to get you the most return. Then worry about moving Carl Crawford or Andre Ethier another day.
The Rockies are in a similar situation the Dodgers are in. To a lesser degree, they have a logjam in the outfield. Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson are having breakout seasons in Colorado. On top of that, you have the versatile Kyle Parker (left) ready for a big league gig. Parker is listed for the Rockies as a first baseman, but his athleticism will allow him a spot in the Rockies outfield, given Justin Morneau will be around for a couple more years. Again, by process of elimination, I’d say, the Rockies best bet is to to part ways with CarGo.
Come the start of the 2015 season, I can’t say the Red Sox have two big time bats, but they will be reloaded in some way shape or form. Now matter how it plays out, Boston is going to be back in the fold in the American League East and the baseball landscape overall rather quickly.
The biggest loser on the day, I thought, was the Philadelphia Phillies. All we heard from the guys all over this year’s deadline was how disappointed Ruben Amaro Jr. was over the offers he was getting for his old and overpaid players.
Well, Ruben, let’s lay this out for you big guy. You reached deep into your pockets to pay for guys that quite frankly, were heading down the back end from their prime, then when they got to 33, 34 or 35 years old, they were not going to be valued as highly, not only because of their age, but because of their paychecks. Amaro pretty much screwed himself by signing those contracts back in 2010-2012. Then for him to have the audacity to ask for elite prospects according to many insiders, was completely absurd.
Now not all is lost for Ruben and company in Philly. There’s still the waiver deadline until August 31. As WFAN’s and Fox Sports1’s Mike Francesa pointed out during the deadline madness, guys pass through waivers all the time, and guys get claimed all the time. So there’s still hope Philly can pull off a few trades.
The Giants are quickly falling behind in the NL West, and are desperately trying to find production from their middle infielders, more specifically second base. Ruben can still pull off a deal to land San Fran Chase Utley and get decent players back from the San Francisco Giants. He could probably even coax Billy Beane into taking Utley if the money situation can be worked out.
But if the Phillies go into the offseason with Ryan Howard, Utley, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Jonathan Papelbon all on the books without moving any of them, Ruben’s going to have to work some serious magic if he wants to continue working in Philadelphia.
My other biggest loser on the day were the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Jays have a tremendously talented group, and their offense is as good as it gets. They are definitely missing the presence of sluggers Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion but the Jays needed pitching help. They could have used a back end of the rotation guy, such as a Bartolo Colon, though the Mets were reluctant to move him, or they could have easily targeted Ian Kennedy or John Lackey, though trading within the division can sometimes make things complicated, but that didn’t stop the Yankees and Red Sox. They could have targeted Dallas Keuchel, who was on the block most of the day. Whoever it was, go upgrade your pitching. Not getting a pitcher could have just cost Toronto the division.
Again, it’s not all over for Toronto, they do still have the waiver deadline they can potentially find someone through. There isn’t a pitching staff anymore in the East that is going to overpower, and the Jays have a pretty good one, definitely better than division leading Baltimore. But it could be better.
A couple other notes from the trading deadline.
I thought the Indians got a steal from the Cardinals for Justin Masterson. James Ramsey (right) is an incredibly athletic player. A Cleveland outfield of Brantley, Bradley Zimmer and James Ramsey is going to be absolutely nuts. And don’t forget a young hitter named Tyler Naquin who is flying through the minor leagues. The Indians offense is already pretty solid, but it’s going to get better. Cleveland was a quiet winner at the deadline.
I didn’t think St. Louis made the right purchase in Justin Masterson. Wednesday night I commented on Facebook and Twitter I thought they could have gotten John Lackey for the same price and gotten a better pitcher. Well turns out they ended up with Lackey, and it worked out well for the Cards. It’s unfortunate two incredibly popular players in Joe Kelly and Allen Craig were shipped off, but it opens up a spot for the highly acclaimed prospect Oscar Taveras. It also opens up a rotation spot for Carlos Martinez next year. The Cardinals have already sent Martinez down to stretch out as a starter and hopefully work on some things he needs to improve on.
I want to focus on this Joe Kelly move to Boston, and the subsequent demotion of Martinez to Triple-A. Coming into spring training, word out of Cardinals camp was Carlos Martinez and Joe Kelly were in competition for the fifth, and final rotation spot for opening day. The performance of Martinez suggested he would the fifth starter, but in completely going against everything they said throughout the spring, Joe Kelly won the spot.
I think this is incredibly telling about what the Cardinals are doing with their future. Kelly "beat out" Martinez in the spring, but I think they're sending the message, they think Martinez is the guy going forward.
I've thought Martinez was the guy even last year during the playoffs. Joe Kelly is a terrific pitcher. He really is. I hope he has a great amount of success in Boston. I think the Cardinals are finally committing to Martinez as a full time starter, and I personally love this move.
However, I do wonder how a clubhouse, who is full of young player who have not really been exposed to mid-season moves like that, will react. The big thing from the Cardinals end of things last October, was how much home grown talent they put on the field. That much talent has grown up in the St. Louis system together, they have progressed together, and now they are finding success together.
That big of a change right in the middle of a pennant race could be devastating, not from a mere talent perspective, but from a personal perspective. Can the seasoned veterans, specifically Matt Holliday and Yadi Molina be the anchors that show the young guys they can have success with popular players out and new players in the mix?
I may get a lot of heat over this point, but you have to remember, these guys are not just names on a scrolling marquee on July 31 or names that you look through when you're setting a fantasy baseball roster.
When your best friend moves away or leaves for another school or whatever the case is, it effects you. It's no different for these guys. Not only have they become friends, but their wives' and kids' have become friends. Their wives' and kid's go out together during the day and come to the ballpark together. There's so many moving parts to it all, it can't be taken for granted.
The young players in St. Louis have to find a way to move past that and focus on the field and the winnable National Central crown they're after. I think they will. I think guys like Holliday and Molina and Lackey, who have seen these kinds of things before, find a way to step up and provide much needed leadership in this situation.
Personally, much like moves the Red Sox made, I thought what the Cardinals and Red Sox did with each other worked out very well for both sides. The Red Sox prove they are working towards next year and the Cardinals get pitching help for this year and have opened up full time spots for several players, mainly Taveras.
The Oakland Coliseum in is a huge ballpark. Both in terms of outfield wall distances and foul ground space. But it’s not just Oakland that is a huge park out west, so is Seattle. And considering Cespedes plays half his season in Oakland another 8-10 games in Seattle, that’s a lot of time in big ball parks. Now he moves to hitters parks like Boston, Yankee Stadium and Baltimore. Even Toronto isn't the worst place to hit. All newer parks with not as much foul territory and closer outfield walls.
I believe this will bring Cespedes' batting average up slightly. He has too many at bats to bring it up significantly, but going to 2015, I could see Cespedes being a .275-.280 hitter. And I think his power numbers jump a lot. Boston did exceptionally well in that deal. And if they get Lester back next year, it will be icing on the cake.
To further address the A's, my initial thought on them acquiring Lester was, that pretty much makes them the frontrunner for the AL pennant. You look at the way Kazmir is throwing, obviously having Jeff Samardzija and Sonny Gray headline your rotation is a tremendous commodity. And you can’t discredit what Jesse Chavez has done this year, and don’t forget, they still have Drew Pomeranz in Triple-A, who before a foolish act of frustration and broke his hand, was throwing the best baseball of his career. The A’s are pretty much set in the starting pitching department.
Their other move a short time later to acquire Sam Fuld for Tommy Milone didn’t grab my eye, and after learning more about what Fuld has done in Minnesota totally made sense. He’s getting on base and scoring runs. That’s the Oakland A’s model of success.
Then after Twitter blew up and everyone was moved on waiting for the next big moves, my thought was, well the Tigers pretty much have all day to go and match that, if they can.
But keeping in theme of the winners of the day, and continuing with the A’s, that move for Lester pretty much made them legitimate in their pursuit for an AL pennant. I was watching Christopher “Mad Dog” Russo’s reaction, and while he made a fair point, I totally disagree. He pointed out the A’s have won one playoff series in the last 14 years. He was saying he wanted to see them do it before everyone went and crowned them the favorites this year.
I understand what the "Mad Dog" is saying but I disagree. You have your top young arm, in Sonny Gray with a year’s experience in the ALCS. You bring in a two-time world champ in Jon Lester. And while Jeff Samardzija hasn’t played in a postseason game, he was a big time college football player at Notre Dame, I very much doubt he’s going to shy away from the big time moments of the playoffs.
If there was one thing I didn’t like about Lester trade, it was the A’s got rid of their top power bat. The A’s record when he’s in the lineup versus when Yoenis Cespedes (who I am a huge fan of) not in the lineup are pretty staggering. Can better pitching make up for some of that? Absolutely. And while Cespedes’ on-base percentage is not where it should be for an Oakland A, there is something to be said for having a feared power bat in your lineup and having that guy that can take any pitcher deep at any point in the game. I’m not saying the A’s don’t have that anymore, because guys like Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, and Josh Reddick are more than capable of being that guy, Cespedes’ power is second to none. I think losing him gives opposing pitchers a little more confidence in going after the guys I just mentioned, knowing Yoenis isn’t in the on deck circle. There’s less protection there is basically where all this is going.
But, all things being equal, it was a hell of a day for the A’s at the trade deadline.
Just a quick note, I really liked the Marlins grabbing Jarred Cosart from the Astros. The Astros don’t have many intriguing offensive options left in their system. They have some exciting options, but I like the return they got. I think Cosart makes the Marlins pitching rotation as legitimate as any in the National League [East] going forward.
Chris Denorfia going to Seattle was a ho-hum move given what all went down Thursday.
I thought Minnesota acquiring Tommy Milone was tremendous. In that ballpark, I think he's going to find great success. Great
.
I'll be curious to see if Asdrubal Cabrera going to Washington makes him a better hitter. My initial reaction was, Cabrera couldn't hit in already mediocre American League Central, where other than Detroit, there's not pitching staff that is really exceptional. Now he moves to the National League East, where you have exceptional pitching in Atlanta, Miami and New York have some emerging young studs, and are already very good, what will his production levels do there?
It's my opinion, Washington is definitely hurting offensively, but was Cabrera the right guy to target? I have my doubts.
The one positive in that deal is Cabrera does have experience in the postseason, and experience fighting for a playoff spot in August and September.
I thought the Yankees made out like bandits, stealing Martin Prado from Arizona.
That said, can we stop this talk that the Diamondbacks downfall isn’t on Kevin Towers? How many more deals is this man going to make that are completely asinine. This deal wasn’t terrible, but not getting a top 10 prospect from the Yankees when the Dodgers gave up a top 20 prospect for Darwin Barney, then the Cubs got a top 10 prospect from the Braves for a glorified utility player (Emilio Bonifacio) and a lefty specialist (James Russell) makes it look like the Yankees are getting away with highway robbery. My opinion of Towers continues to dwindle with each passing day and I say to those who think the poor performance of this team is on the players on field: wake up and do some independent thinking. He's traded away so much talent that could have Arizona in a pennant chase right now.
Back to Prado to New York, I thought it was a great move for Brian Cashman and the Yankees. The Yankees are definitely in the chase for the AL East, and adding Prado to their lineup is a nice boost.
All that to say, the fireworks of the trade deadline were fantastic to watch unfold with one grande finale.
Like I said at the top, the July 31 trade deadline was one of the best in recent memory, if not history. I bet we could see some more fireworks with the August waiver period open now.
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