With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror now, the second half of the MLB season will take center stage as we go full steam ahead to the trade deadline and then hit the dog days of summer in August. It seems like every year we say “this is going to be one of the most active trade deadlines we’ve seen in recent memory”, in fact I think I said that in a few trade deadline previews I’ve put together already.
As it stand, and if you watched the All-Star game, you probably saw this stat, there are more teams within a game and a half of their respective divisions at the all-star break than at any point in MLB history, as you’ve got five teams that fit that criteria right now.
With that said, I want to take a look back at my predictions from the preseason and see how they’re stacking up now, and start to break down the second half for our teams in contention.
I’ll start with the National League East, because this division could be a quiet, but lethal division heading to the stretch run. At the start of the year, I thought this would be a two team race with Washington and Atlanta leading the pack, but I thought the Marlins could be a quiet player in how things played out.
To this point, it’s been all Washington and Atlanta, with no one really within shouting distance, when you consider the lowly New York Mets are tied for third in this division. A sweep of the Fish ended their first half of the season, bringing them, mathematically within contention not only in the East, but in the Wild Card. However, I just can’t see New York doing anything in the second unless they improve drastically on offense. This team is anemic with runners in scoring position, nay, they’re anemic with runners on base. They have left the fifth most baserunners on in all of baseball, and second in the National League (though with the expanded interleague play this year I don’t think there’s much to separating the two anymore).
I want to talk about the Florida Marlins for a minute, and then we’ll go back to the leaders in the division and break down their second halves. I thought the Florida Marlins would be a dark horse in the National League East coming into the year. After the 8th start of the season for stud right-hander Jose Fernandez, obviously, he went down with Tommy John Surgery. I have to admit, I was very surprised at how the media reacted to the news. Yes, losing your stud, all-world pitcher is devastating to any franchise, but I feel like people didn’t know what the Marlins had in place behind him.
When Matt Harvey went down for the Mets last year, not only was the season lost at that point, but people were talking like it would be 2015 before they’d compete again. And for good reason. Zack Wheeler was (is) very green and you could not be sure what he could contribute. Was Jon Niese going to be healthy for a full slate of starts, or even just a solid 25-28 (at this point, he’s starting to really be a liability more than reliable), and spending money to bring in quality free agents just wasn’t an option, despite a very strong minor league system.
However, the Marlins have proven a point I made way back in early March. This team has a very strong core of pitchers, and I felt like the loss of Fernandez, while devastating, wasn’t the end of the world. Look at Henderson Alvarez (left). I’ve been big on him since his days in Toronto, but coming into the year, few people knew who he was. Now he’s coming off his first all-star appearance, and I don’t think it’s any coincidence. Henderson has been pitching in the big leagues for several years now, and at just 24, I think we’re looking at a very solid pitcher in a favorable ballpark, favorable division, and a team that is slowly but surely on the rise.
Andrew Heaney is one baseball’s top pitching prospects, and while he’s struggled through a handful of starts in his first taste of big league action, he’s a college pitcher who flew through the minor leagues, (do I need to remind you of my love affair for college drafted players?), I think he makes major adjustments with a great staff of coaches in Miami, and has a decent, if not great, second half of 2014.
Nathan Eovaldi (right) easily could have been an all-star this year. The 24-year-old has been just stellar. He’s in the top 20 of NL pitchers in innings pitched. He’s just outside the top 25 in ERA in the league, and owns one of the National League’s lowest WHIP rate. If you ask me, Eovaldi and a few others deserved an All-Star nod over the middle-relievers selected to the NL side, but that’s neither here nor there.
I totally missed on my prediction of Jacob Turner. I should have realized you can’t have a staff one through five that are can’t miss, unless of course you pitch for the Oakland A’s, then that’s different. But I’m not giving up on the tall, lanky righty yet. I think putting him in the bullpen helps him straighten things out, at least a little.
I was also dead-on with Marcel Ozuna (left), who had an all-star first half with a line of .276/.323/.463 and an OPS of .786. There were very few National League hitters you could argue with that were part of the NL squad, but again, I think a guy without an every day position, no matter how good offensively he is, should be omitted, and as much as I like him, his style and team, I thought Josh Harrison snubbed Ozuna of a spot. Again, that’s neither here nor there.
We all know what Giancarlo Stanton has done. We all know what Casey McGehee has done. If you ask me today, do I still think Miami has a .500 season, I say yes.
I also think the Marlins have a real chance to play spoiler late because of their pitching depth. The Marlins starting August play 12 games against the three of the four teams vying for that NL Central crown that is totally up grabs all of a sudden. Are they going to knock one of them out? It’s totally unlikely unless they run through that portion of the schedule on a 9-3 or 10-2 crazy run. (I don’t think that is impossible though).
The Marlins finish the month of August at the LA (Angels) for three, they play six of their next nine against Atlanta, and then go to Milwaukee for four games against a Brewers team that did not finish strong and if they continue to slide, may be out of contention by early September, though to be totally out of it at that point is also unlikely. Then they finish their season with 8 of their final 11 games against Washington.
There’s not much of this schedule that just doesn’t get me fired up. Mainly because a ton of these teams they play I have a major distaste for, and to see an up and comer like Miami have a real say in if they make the playoffs fires me up.
I’m not saying the Marlins go crazy to the tune of 43-25, or something like that, in the second half after going 24-34 without their all-world right hander, but I do think a .500 finish makes this team a real threat to playoff contenders down the stretch.
Let’s wrap this piece up with the two top dogs, Washington and Atlanta.
I thought coming into the year the Nationals had one of the most complete, if not the most complete units in the entire league. Their bullpen has been terrific. Their starting pitching has been acceptable to this point. Missing Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez for some time hurt, but their replacements were better than adequate. The offense, to me, really hasn’t gotten going. I think there’s more in the tank from Bryce Harper. Ian Desmond has bounced back from an atrocious start. Anthony Rendon has been spectacular, maybe the most consistent hitter in their lineup. The same for Jayson Werth.
If Washington can keep it together at the top of their rotation, mainly Jordan Zimmermann, Gio and Stephen Strasburg, they have a real chance to be a runaway train in the second half. At only a game up in the loss column coming out of the all-star break, Washington needs a strong start with a very favorable schedule to finish July.
When you look at what the Nationals need, they don’t need much in terms of trade market pick ups. They could use perhaps a left-handed specialist out of the ‘pen (though the need isn’t immediate) and maybe an upgrade at second base. The second base argument is Danny Espinosa is one of the games finer defensive players and the only real second base options on the market at the moment are within your division (Daniel Murphy, NYM and Chase Utley, PHI). I very much doubt Philadelphia or New York wants to see their guy beating them down the road.
When you look at Atlanta, the success they’re having is nothing short of spectacular, given the injury bug that bit their pitching staff early. But Julio Teheran (left) has been stellar. Starting the year, Ervin Santana was a great addition. And who saw Aaron Harang coming back to his 2007 form?
Atlanta could use, but it’s not entirely necessary, an additional starting pitcher. The offense at this point has been better than I anticipated. The strikeouts are down and on-base percentages are up. The Braves are already in good position to contend. Out of the gate, their first 11 games are against sub-.500 teams, giving them just as much opportunity to a fast start as Washington.
The National League East won’t be won between now and July 31, but the team to get off to the best start out of the break may be the one that holds the upper hand the final two months of the season.
I am still sticking to my guns and am going to take the Nationals simply because their heavy hitters like Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper haven’t gotten going, and their pitching is just now starting to piece it together.
I do think Atlanta makes the playoffs as the first Wild Card and hosts the “play-in” game at Turner Field.
There’s plenty more races to be tuned to, I’ll continue to break them down as we go forward this week.
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