MLB Trade Deadline Focus: Philadelphia Phillies

As I sit down on a Tuesday afternoon to type this edition of our trade deadline focus, the Philadelphia Phillies remain one of the leagues most intriguing storylines, not because of their play on the field, though that is part of the intrigue. It is in large part is because of the line they flirt with on a daily basis between being contenders and not sellers, and being out of any race and looking to shed a ton of payroll.

From where I sit, the National League is too good to consider the Phillies contenders. They are losing ground by the day, losers of four straight (as of Tuesday) and eight of their last ten. They sit at 8.5 games back in the East, behind a Nationals team that is getting hot and a Braves team that isn’t going anywhere fast. The only hope the Phillies may have is the Wild Card, and in the National League, that is a tall order when you look at the three NL Central teams from last year’s playoffs in the thick of things, on top of that Cincinnati is playing better and of course you have the surprise Milwaukee Brewer.Plus the Giants are a real threat and I wouldn’t count out the Marlins as a sneaky contender to make things interesting. All that to say, the Phillies have to start considering a rebuild.

The intrigue with Philadelphia is you have so many guys that other franchises would likely value. Chase Utley started the year on a tear and looked like he was on his way back to his vintage self. He’s slowed down since then but what you like about what Utley is doing, he’s not striking out (44 Ks in 307 at bats, 14%). Utley may be the most valuable Philly on the trade market.

The speculation was who would ante up between the Dodgers and Giants, but right now, I don’t see the Dodgers doing much unless the asking price is reduced a little bit for David Price. I think the Giants are a more likely destination for the Philadelphia second baseman, mainly because they’re the only contender he would fit with.

You look at potential contenders, and they have one of two scenarios. They either have an everyday second baseman or they have other needs that may be more pressing.

While the contract Utley is signed to is very friendly, especially for a team like the Giants, he’s 35 years old. I don’t think Philadelphia would get a Kyle Crick or Edwin Escobar, but I think the Phillies could target a guy like Ty Blach. Blach is an undersized, but very good left handed pitcher. At 23-years old, he was drafted in the 5th round of the 2012 out of Creighton. He’s made quick work of Single-A baseball and is having great success at Double-A (6-4, 2.75 ERA in 78.2 IP). I think Blach is a realistic target for the Phils, simply because they need pitching in their minor leagues. It’s also well documented how I love college players, and Blach is on the fast track for the big leagues.

Now, there is another fit I see for the Utley and that’s the Oakland A’s. Why, you ask. Think about this, the A’s clearly don’t need offense help. Oakland is in the top half, if not at the top, of the league in almost every offensive category. They clearly don’t need pitching. Again towards the top, if not at the top, of the league in almost all pitching categories. So why then, do the A’s need Chase Utley?

One reason: the Detroit Tigers.

Two consecutive years, the Detroit Tigers have taken the Oakland A’s out of the postseason in game 5 of the American League Division Series. The A’s have as strong of a team as they’ve ever had, but it all does them no good if they can’t get past Detroit. The experience the Tigers have in the postseason has served them well, as they have been to the ALCS two consecutive years, and look very strong right now.

Utley has postseason experience, you might remember he has a championship ring. What I love, and hate at the same time, about Chase Utley is he has ice in his veins. There’s no moment, there’s no game that’s too big for him. He carries an incredible confidence and swagger that I think would serve Oakland well, especially in September and October. That is the type of guy the A’s need on their team.

Does one guy change the way the A’s fare in the postseason? Maybe, maybe not. But I think he’s worth the investment.

I’m going to address Ryan Howard next, but the Phillies could easily replace him shortly with a guy named Matt Olson (right). The top first baseman in the A’s organization, I think Olson makes a great target for Philadelphia in a deal for Utley. At just age 20, Olson has 23 bombs and a .399 OBP so far in High-A, and could be close to to a promotion to Double-A. Olson possesses power that would be a great fit in that hitter friendly ballpark in Philadelphia.

I think Utley brings the most return for the Phillies in any deal this summer.

The Phillies could also move Ryan Howard this summer, but he will be a tricky move. Under contract until 2016, Howard is owed $20-million plus the next three years. The Phillies will have a very hard time moving him or his contract. It’s likely the Phillies will have to eat a lot of that contract to get some talent back. But the end it may be worth it for both parties.

I have one destination in mind for Ryan Howard: Milwaukee.

Like Utley to Oakland, Ryan Howard to Milwaukee isn’t the perfect fit, but again, when you look at the contenders and their first basemen, it’s hard to find a good fit, but, let’s look closer at Milwaukee, because I think I have a few intriguing arguments.

First of all, Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds at first are hardly good options for a team that has hopes of playing deep into October. Combined, Reynolds and Overbay are hitting a putrid .221 and have an OBP of .308 and .331 respectively. Overybay’s OBP isn’t bad but is a much smaller sample size from Reynolds, a little more than half the plate appearances.

Howard isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire so far in 2014. He’s at .238 with just a .301 OBP and already 100 strikeouts, Howard hardly seems worth the risk of the investment, but I think he is.

In very solid sample size, sitting at above 100 at bats in each ballpark, Howard hits .238 at Great American in Cincinnati with 11 career homers. Not surprising given it’s a cracker jack box. However, the Reds pitching staff is coming on very strong of late, so it would be interesting to see what he would do there, given his high strikeout rate this year.

Howard fares very poorly at PNC Park, hitting .207 with only two homers and 18 RBIs, but the Brewers play just three games in Pittsburgh the rest of this season.

At Wrigley Field, Howard hits .250 with seven homers and 21 RBIs, but if the Cubbies are thinking of tanking and selling off their top two starters in Jake Arrieta and Jeff Samardzija, the friendly confines could become even friendlier, given the fact the Brewers would play seven games there during the hottest days of the year.

At the “new” Busch Stadium, Howard hits .360 with ten homers and 38 RBIs. After July 31, Milwaukee plays two 3-game sets in St. Louis, and we all know the trouble Milwaukee has had with the Redbirds down the stretch. Interesting to point out the success Howard has had against the Cardinals. I think he could be an asset in trying to fend off, what I think is a likely comeback attempt from St. Louis later this summer.

You’ll notice, I left out Milwaukee. What’s the saying? Save the best for last. I think this will put an exclamation mark on my point.

In Miller Park, Ryan Howard is a .300 hitter (actually it’s .301) with five homers, 22 RBIs and a .348 OBP (though I don’t think the ballpark has much to do with OBP, it’s just interesting to point out). In recent years, Ryan Howard hasn’t had much success in Milwaukee, but I think over a longer period of time, he’d come to enjoy the success he’s found there.

Dealing Ryan Howard I think is inevitable. I don’t think Ruben Amaro, Jr. can afford to keep him around given the state of the team and the direction of the franchise, both this season and in the future. But, it is going to be very difficult for Amaro to move him and get something decent in return.

What is likely to happen is the Phillies will shed Utley and most likely be able to dump him and his favorable contract off to someone else. With Howard though, they are likely to have to eat a good amount of it, especially if he’s moved to a middle-market team like Milwaukee. The Brewers could probably afford to take on some of his contract, but if the Phillies are willing to eat most of it, I think they could get a better return, which ultimately is what it’s all about in moving Howard. Now, you’re not going to get Jimmy Nelson, who is tearing up Triple-A, and you’re likely not to get the Tryone Taylor or Devin Williams. Here’s two guys, if I’m Amaro I ask for.

First, Taylor Jungmann. Jungmann (right) was one of the draft’s top prospects in 2011, and out of Texas, appeared he could fly through the minor leagues and find a place in, what was at the time, a bad Milwaukee rotation. Now, with the signings of Lohse and Garza, and the way Peralta and Gallardo are throwing the ball, adding on the likely imminent arrival full time of Jimmy Nelson, the Brewers are very much set for pitching into the foreseeable future. Making Jungmann expendable. And for Milwaukee, I think if you can get a solid power bat like Howard for a guy that is just now arriving at Triple-A, I think you do it.

I like Jungmann a lot, and I think he still ends up being a good second or third starter on a major league roster.

The second ask I have would be Orlando Arcia. At just 19 years old, Arcia is still a ways away from a big league role, but the Brewers have no need for a long term shortstop. Jean Segura has been absolutely stellar for Milwaukee since his arrival from the LA Angels in the Zack Greinke deal. The Phillies could potentially be looking at a very good middle infield with the young shortstop from last year’s draft, JP Crawford, added to Arcia and top prospect, third baseman Maikel Franco. If they’re able to pull off a deal with the A’s for Matt Olson, the Phillies could revamp their infield to be potent for many years to come.

I think between Utley, Howard and Carlos Ruiz, the Phillies will likely get a decent return. Like I mentioned several times, they aren’t going to get top prospects for any of these players. Age and money are simply too much for potential buyers to risk for some of their best young players, but I think there are a couple fits the Phillies could find for their guys and for Ruben Amaro, Jr. and company to begin to rebuild with.