MLB Trade Deadline Focus: David Price

The 2014 Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline may be one of the most active with big names we have seen in some time.

As the 4th of July weekend approaches, the rumors should start to fly as thick as the mosquitoes on a blazing hot summer night. One story line this summer that has me consumed on Twitter and MLBTradeRumors and many other places is the one involving David Price.

It’s almost unfortunate the way David Price has upped his game this summer, only to watch his Tampa Bay Rays fall farther and farther out of the American League East by the day. What’s even more unfortunate is how wide open the AL East is above Tampa. Just seven games (as of Sunday morning) separates the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox and the leaders of the East, the Toronto Blue Jays.

I did a piece last fall on the future of Major League Baseball, outlining who the top teams would be based on their minor league systems and free agent acquisitions and such. While some of those are greatly off at this point, one I think that I could still see happening is Price going to the Rangers in exchange for some very good players.

No matter where David Price goes, and it’s all but public he is on his way out of Tampa, the Rays are going to come away with a great deal of talent in return. At just 28 years old, whoever decides they want to take part in the Price sweepstakes and whoever comes out the winner of said sweepstakes, will also be looking very good.

I’ve thought this for a long time: the Rangers and Rays are perfect trade partners.

The Texas Rangers have one of the game’s best starting pitchers in Yu Darvish. Putting up outlandish numbers game after game, American League Baseball is almost too easy for this guy, as he gets better and better each year - nay, each day - he spends in America.

The problem with the Rangers in 2014, they’ve underachieved so much, the thought of missing the playoffs for a second consecutive year starts to look like a real possibility the deeper into the summer we get. The Angels have stepped things up (finally) and the A’s are just playing out of this world baseball, it is hard to imagine a scenario where two American League West teams are able to compete in winner take all wild-card game.

Now, the Rangers downfall is not all a lack of effort on the field. Texas is so injury ridden, most teams would die to be able to plug in some of the talent they are (Rougned Odor, right; Luis Sardinas, and Michael Choice), for the talent they’ve lost. Prince Fielder is the biggest name they have on the DL but also the loss of prized talent Juickson Profar has depleted their depth on the infield for sure.

While the injury bug has bitten the Rangers exceptionally hard in 2014, it’s not kept them from performing. After signing a massive 7-year/$130-million deal in the offseason, Shin Soo Choo has struggled to find his niche in Texas, hitting to the tune of just a .255 average and seven homers. I mentioned this in my pre-season preview for the Rangers, what you love about Choo is he gets on base. His on-base percentage has to be one of the more encouraging signs his production levels are not a complete loss for 2014. The warm summer days ahead in Arlington should provide Choo plenty of opportunity to regain his form from a career year last year.

Looking down from Choo, what the year the Rangers are getting from Alex Rios is very encouraging. Coming into the week with a .305 average and 13 stolen bases, Alex Rios is certainly not the reason Texas is struggling. Nor is it Rougned Odor. Despite a tough first week in Arlington, where he committed a couple costly errors, Odor has been very solid, hitting to a line of .276 with three bombs and a pair of stolen bases. He’s has not been over his head often despite not playing a single day at Triple-A and being just 20 years old.

The Rangers as a unit have hit well with a .262 team average, which is a top 10 league average, but are in the bottom third in power. Despite the power shortage, I don’t think that is their problem.

I think their problem is pitching. Specifically starting pitching, more specifically, everyone but Darvish.

Coming into the season, I questioned the back end of the Rangers rotation. After Darvish and Martin Perez (pre-injury), I had my doubts if the Rangers could get enough support to be an American League West contender. The loss of Perez was pretty much devastating as he was throwing the best baseball of his big league career. And the Rangers have been absolutely terrible after Darvish since that time.

Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers, and Alexi Ogando all flopped as starters. The rotation as currently constructed is awful. Other than Nick Tepesch, every starter has an ERA above a 4.50. If it wasn’t for a very steady bullpen, a 4.56 team ERA would be a lot higher.

All that is to say, the Rangers need starting pitching help in a desperate way.

Enter: David Price.

Price coming to Texas would not only be a God-send for the Rangers, he’d be a God-send to Jon Daniels.

Daniels has done a poor job putting together a pitching staff in Texas under his tenure. Letting Cliff Lee walk a few years ago wasn’t the worst decision financially, but given what he’s done in another hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia, perhaps he would have been worth the investment.

I very much doubt Daniels is in any danger of being fired in Texas, but they have to take some of that offensive depth in their minor leagues and use to get a second ace.

Price having a career year to this point is not going to make him a cheap commodity. But it can’t be overstated his value to Texas.

I put out there last fall Price would cost the Rangers catching prospect Jorge Alfaro and 1B prospect Joey Gallo. I don’t think the asking price (pun INtended) would stop there, but the Rangers truly have so much depth, their top prospects will easily be filled in by other prospects just as good.

The other end of this greatly helps out Tampa.

The Rays are challenged in many ways, almost the exact opposite challenges Texas faces. The Rays have a ton of pitching depth. Let me say that again; the Rays have a ton of pitching depth.

Like the Rangers, the Rays are in the bottom third of the league in home runs, they’re also in the bottom third of the league in slugging percentage. They’re in the bottom half of the league in batting average, though batting average is becoming less of an indicator of a team’s offensive success.

The Rays are the bottom third of the league in runs scored but are middle of the pack in on-base percentage.

Not only that, the prospects the Rays could call on just don’t leave a fan excited.

I was excited about SS Hak-Ju Lee for a while, but the last few years I feel like he’s hit a wall, and isn’t progressing. After a decent year in Double-A last in 2012, with a .336 OBP, Lee saw just limited time in Triple-A after a knee injury. This year, his Triple-A season has been rather disappointing. According to MLB.com, Lee is “more of a slap hitter”. To me, that dangers on a lot of weak contact, which is showing as Lee is hitting a putrid .201 in just short of 200 at bats. What’s worse, when Lee was hitting around .270 at Double-A in 2012, his OBP was above .330. His OBP in Triple-A this year is a measly .276.

Needless to say, right the Rays top offensive prospect just doesn’t leave you excited.

Then after Lee, you’ve got exciting young arms in Enny Romero and Alex Colome, with a couple young, exciting hitters who are still a few years (at best) away from being impact players in Tampa.

All that to say the Rays need offensive help.

Enter: Jorge Alfaro and Joey Gallo.

Joey Gallo (right) right now is playing third base for Texas’ double-A affiliate Frisco. Long term, I think Gallo goes to first base, and if he indeed does end up in Tampa, I would almost guarantee he moves to 1B, because obviously, Evan Longoria isn’t going anywhere, any time soon.

The Rays have to be happy with what they have received in the last few years from James Loney at 1B. They’ve gotten a left-handed hitting first basemen who hits for average, though the power you traditionally see, and would expect from your corner infield spot, has greatly lacked. In his prime, Loney was a 15 home run hitter, so the lack of power from Loney is not surprise. But, Loney is healthy and gets on base, and drives runners in.

If the Rays can land a guy like Gallo, and begin working him in at 1B, I can’t help but think they love a player who easily profiles as a premier power hitter in the game for many years to come.

The Rays have also been through a shmorgishborg of catchers in recent years and could use a steady bat at the position as well. Alfaro (left) isn’t a natural catcher. He was converted from an infielder, mainly because of his arm and his athleticism. Alfaro still has a lot to learn about being a catcher, but his bat is what everyone talks about with him. Right now at High-A, Alfaro is hitting a respectable .261 with 10 homers. The prevailing thought among many scouts is he is best suited behind the plate, and has the tools to be an all-star catcher.

I truly believe it will take Alfaro and Gallo to make a deal happen with Tampa, and it may even additionally take Odor, Sardinas or Profar to complete the package. Keep in mind, most prospect sheets you look at that have been updated within the last few weeks have taken Odor and Sardinas off their Texas lists because of their service time already. Coming into the year, Sardinas, Odor and Alfaro were ahead of Gallo. But Gallo is regarded by many as the best pure power hitter in the minor leagues today.

When you think it’s crazy Tampa will want Alfaro, Gallo and at least one of the three guys I mentioned, I heard a report from Jon Heyman where Tampa asked for Joc Pederson (right), Corey Seager, and Julio Urias from the Dodgers. Those are hands down their top three prospects, and quite frankly are better than Alfaro, Gallo and one of the three middle-infielders.

The asking is high for David Price, but at 28 years old, you’re getting one of the top starting pitchers in all of baseball. I think Texas makes the most sense for a destination for him. Texas also has the capital to make a long-term deal happen over the next few years before he becomes a free agent in 2016.

I said it in the fall, and I’m sticking to my guns, I think David Price becomes a Texas Ranger before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and I think both the Rays and Rangers come out winners in this type of a deal.

For future reference, I plan on doing pieces like this all week, and then probably some more as we head to the July 31 non-waiver deadline.