2014 Outlook: San Diego Padres

When you look at the product the San Diego Padres run out onto the field, you can't help be impressed with the collection of talent they posses. The problem the Padres seem to have run into is the talent has almost hit a wall.

Guys like Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley and Yonder Alonso are certainly impressive players, but the stats they are putting up just aren't. You can certainly go down and find the things that stand out for each one.


For example, Carlos Quentin has hit 20 homers twice in his three years in San Diego, but he's not played in 90 games yet in a single season.

While he spends three stints a year on the DL, he does send one guy to the DL a year. Not the best trade-off if you're San Diego. (Sorry I couldn't ignore the brawl with the Dodgers)

Yonder Alonso gets himself on base a lot and hits for a good average, but for a power hitting 1B, the power hasn't come around. I will admit, Alonso is young enough, the power should come, so all is not lost with him.

Chase Headley had an MVP type season in 2012, but that's all the flashes of brilliance he's been able to show.

Cameron Maybin has been highly touted for a long time, but so far all he's really done in the big leagues, is prove he's a real threat on the base paths. The problem is he's not getting on base enough to make big time contributions.

And those aren't the only guys the Padres have that haven't lived up to their billing. You can point to other guys like Will Venable, Nick Hundley and Yasmani Grandal who all have great potential, they have just yet to put it all together.

But then there's guys like Jed Gyorko and Everth Cabrera who are the next big thing in San Diego. You combine them with a Rymer Liriano, who shouldn't be too long from being a solid contributor at PetCo Park, and the Padres have great pieces for the future.

And while there's certainly light at the end of the tunnel for the Friars, the present isn't as bright. While the Padres could certainly surprise everybody I just don't see it. The Padres lack a true ace at the front of the rotation.

I know a lot of people want to buy into Andrew Cashner, and for good reason, but I'm not. I won't argue with anyone that likes him because he definitely pitched well last year, but I want to wait and see more.

Cashner had never thrown over 100 innings in a season except in the minor leagues, and then he jumps to 175 last season.  To me a true ace has to be able to log 200-plus innings, with 200 Ks and an ERA around or below 3. You say that's a crazy expectation, I say, that's why they're called aces. They can meet those high expectations.

And don't take that to mean I don't think Andrew isn't a good pitcher, because he is. And while the Padres have a lot of 'good' pitchers, there's nobody that you can have confidence in to go out there on a three or four game losing streak and tell him to give you seven innings while not allowing more than two or three runs.

Now those types of guys are definitely coming. Casey Kelly had Tommy John Surgery at the beginning of last season, and he can certainly be that guy. I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly comes on around mid-year and really starts to show his true potential. Another couple guys that are a little farther out, but is almost equally as talented is a southpaw named Max Fried and a right-hander Matt Wisler. If they ever get the chance to join Cashner in this rotation, things could get interesting quickly in San Diego.

The bullpen in San Diego is not terrible. In fact, more times than not, with this pen, if you get them with a lead into the 6th or 7th inning, they're probably going to get the job done for a win. Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit in the back end of things are very good and Tim Stuaffer isn't the worst guy to have in the sixth or seventh innings.

I put the Rockies ahead of the Padres in my Power Rankings last week. When you get into the worst five or six teams in baseball, you have to get a little bit picky when you decide who you like ahead of or below another.

Tomorrow I'll get to Colorado and what I think of the Rockies and what they have going on there at Coors Field, and then break down the real differences between the two clubs.