Friday, February 21, 2014

2014 Outlook: Chicago Cubs

Pardon me Cubs fans, I'm going to officially jump on the bandwagon. (I've been on the bandwagon for a while, it's pretty empty still, it's nice)

If ever there was a team to have a meteoric and speed of light rise to the top, it will be the Chicago Cubs. It's not coming this year. No, this year should be another year of struggles for the Northsiders. And while the future is definitely the first thing Cubs fans want to talk about, I don't want to focus too much on it, because this is a 2014 outlook. That said, the future will play a big part of this preview.


The 2014 Cubbies don't look too bad. When you consider what Junior Lake was able to do last year when he was recalled, and then the break out season Travis Wood had, the Cub fan can't be too down on this season.

I know Theo Epstein has come out and said this team needs to improve, and the basement of the NL Central is no longer acceptable, I can't say he's wrong. But if he wants that to be the expectation, he has to start showing fans, and his manager the kids everyone is waiting on. The likely first of the recalls will be Javier Baez. Baez may not be 100% ready, but, if he (and he should) starts the season at Triple-A and plays well, there's almost no reason not to bring him up by June.

I could also see the scenario where Arismendy Alcantara (left) plays himself into an opening day roster spot. The Dominican middle-infielder seems to have finally turned the corner. I've had my eye on this kid as an under the radar guy for a while, and while MLB.com hasn't released their top prospects yet for the Cubs, I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps into their top five. Other sites have him as high as three, I think four or five is about right. He's a dynamic talent who could (nay, will) make an impact in Chicago very soon.

I know it seems as though they're a few years off, but I am of the mindset, if they are playing well, they need a shot at the big league level, and those guys are Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant.

Soler (right) should, and likely will, start the season at Double-A. But I can't say I'd be surprised if he plays well in April and May, that he'll be in the big leagues by late-June or early-July. I think he has a Yasiel Puig like impact for the Cubbies. I love saying this: if Cardinals fans think they hate Puig, dear God almighty they are going loath Soler.

The Cubs have announced they'll likely send Bryant (left) to Double-A right out of the gate, but I think the option of High-A is still there. None-the-less, Bryant is well on his way to being a big leaguer by Opening Day of next year at the very latest.

Now while all of these opinions are certainly optimistic on my part, I can't say they are all going to play out. Soler has had his share of injuries and other problems. Bryant will have to adjust to Double-A, then likely Triple-A pitching. Baez will have to show he can play well at Triple-A. A lot of factors.

Now, if all of these things to some degree come to fruition, there's going to be a lot of excitement amongst Cubs fans,  but I can't tell you there will be wins associated with these kids present in Chicago.

This talent will take time to maturate and develop. It might take a little while for them to come into their own at the big league level.

Now those are just a few of the hitters the Cubs are looking at. Of course you already have Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro as staples in the line up. I like Junior Lake and hope the Cubs can find a permanent spot for him, but let's look at their pitching.

I really like Travis Wood. I think he really came into his own last year and I look for him to build on his all-star season this year.

Jeff Samardzija is somewhat of an enigma. Before Travis Wood broke on the scene last year, he was the best pitcher the Cubs had. He's got the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy, maybe not a true ace, but certainly a top number two type of guy. But when he was put into the rotation and started to log major innings, his numbers really dipped. And while overall numbers really don't tell the whole story, Samardzija is the best the Cubbies have. I hate to say it, but he might be a little overrated.

If I had to make a comparison, it would be Lucas Duda for the Mets. He has the power and skill, but because there's no one else to compare him to in the organization, he automatically gets the nod. Whether that's fair for both players, I don't know. But I do know both are good players, they just may not be as good as their hype.

Now, that's not to say Samardzija isn't a good pitcher. Because he is, and he deserves to be in a big leauge rotation. But if you're relying him to be a #1 who logs 200-innings and keeps you in every game, it's just not going to happen.

I really thought Edwin Jackson would have a better year last year in his first year on the north side. Plain and simple, it was a disaster for him. But, if I had to take a guy no one is talking about who could have a big bounce back year, I'd say Edwin Jackson first and not even close. I've always been high on him. I've always felt he's bounced around too much to really ever get settled somewhere. And now I think he has a chance to do that in with the Cubbies.

When you sit back and look at this rotation as a whole. It's really not bad. I think Wood (right) is a true ace type of pitcher. He's a little smaller than your prototypical top of the rotation guy, but that's ok. I've never bought into the "you have to be a 6'3 and 220 pound, linebacker build to be an ace" garbage. Mechanics go a long ways in longevity and Wood has good mechanics.

I also would not sleep on a guy the Cubs got in the Matt Garza deal with Texas last year, Neil Ramirez. Texas was real high on him, he's had about a year and a half of success because of injuries, but I think the Cubs may have found a real hidden gem there. I've liked him for a long time and feel he's headed towards being a good contributor.

When I look at the Cubs, I get excited.

I might get more excited about their future than any other team. I not only get excited for the team, but the fan base. Cubs fans have taken enough crap from Cardinals, Brewers and White Sox fans to last a generation.

I've said this for a long... The Cubbies are coming. As sure as God's vengeance, they're coming.

It's time for success on the North side, and they are as close to it as one bottom tier team can be.

1 comment:

  1. Actually the cubs rotation IS pretty bad. Wood and Shmardzja are pretty solid although I think Wood will come back down to earth a little this season. Jackson was absoutely horrible last season. Jackson will likely bounce back a bit, but even then he's a number 4 starter. After those three what do the cubs have? Their rotation will be one of the worst in the majors again this season and they don't have all that much pitching coming to the rescue on the farm. Offensively the cubs do have a lot of upside and young talent coming; but I still remember when we heard all about Vitters and Brett Jackson being the guys to pull the cubs out of the basement....so let's not be overly optimistic at this point. The Cubs will be laughably bad this season; if guys like Shmardizja, Jackson, and Wood perform adequately they are likely to be dealt at the deadline for pitching prospects with upside...which is smart because the cubs are still a COUPLE years away from contention. They do have a lot of young position players who are talented coming; and I like Lake, Rizzo, and Castro. But the key word is COMING. The mlb team on the field will likely be vary bad, and the cubbies aren't set up with pitching like they are with offense. We'll see.

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