Friday, February 28, 2014

2014 Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

I didn't know how to start my Baltimore Orioles preview other than to say, I don't know how the Orioles have been so successful the past few years.

When you look at the Os, they definitely have some of the brightest young talent in the big leagues, I think, highlighted by their corner infielders, Manny Machado and Chris Davis. Of course, you can't leave out Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and JJ Hardy, who have been a staples in this lineup as well.


The offensive firepower of the Orioles has never been doubted I don't believe, but if there is one thing this organization cannot seem to get right, it is their pitching.

In 2013, there were 11 teams to have 4.0 or worse ERA, and one was the Orioles. The prior year, the Orioles had a 3.9 ERA, and was actually lower than the league average of 4.00 ERA.

The Orioles can think they addressed their need for a true ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, but I have my doubts. For one, Jimenez has put together two very dominant halves of baseball, separated by about three years of poor baseball.

I can't say I know what went wrong between the great start of 2010, and the dominant ending of 2013, but if the Orioles are gambling on him to be the savior of this pitching staff, I wouldn't put too much money on it. Which they really didn't.

I don't think the Orioles have had an ace since Mike Mussina.

But, the Orioles are really close with about three guys with ace stuff, in Kevin Gaussman, Dylan Bundy (right) and Eduardo Rodriguez. Gaussman and Rodriguez may be the closest of the three, what with Bundy coming off TJS and all.

But the Orioles seem to have realized their flaws, and are addressing them in a big way. I can't say I'd be surprised if Gaussman and Rodriguez get shots at a rotation spot before the all-star break if guys in their projected rotation start to break down, or don't get the job done, though both are likely scenarios.

Like I mentioned though, what you do like about the Orioles is their incredible young hitters. Machado and Davis draw the headlines, but don't forget about Jones and Markakis.

I don't mind what the Os did to get Nelson Cruz, though I thought it to be a little unnecessary. The Orioles already posses a great deal of pop in this lineup, I don't see how Cruz helps them.

But, on a one-year contract, they may be getting a great steal because Cruz has a lot to prove right now. He has to prove his numbers are not a product of PEDs and he has to prove he deserves more than a one year deal.

While it was a head scratcher, I think this could work out for the Orioles in the end.

One guy I think that really gets put in the background of these big time bats is JJ Hardy. Hardy is almost a perfect fit in Baltimore. He's hit better than 20 homers in all three seasons in Baltimore, and he's played better than 150 games twice, he played in 129 the first year there.

Baltimore really got a great steal from the Twins.

One guy I'm interested to see how the O's handle, is Jonathan Schoop (left). Schoop is a middle infielder, who likely will play 2B at some point, and has tremendous power.

He's a little taller than him, but probably a good comparison is Robinson Cano. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Robinson Cano, but I'm not not going to say that either. Schoop has a smooth, effortless swing like Cano with tremendous pop.

Schoop added ten lean pounds of muscle in the offseason, and has his eyes on a job in this Orioles middle-infield. If Schoop has an eye popping spring training, he almost has to get the job at second base.

A lot of people have been down on Matt Wieters the past few years. And for good reason. He's hit better than .250 only once, though he's hit better than 20 homers four straight years. The one thing you like about Wieters is he is always in the lineup. Wieters has played in 130 or more games in four straight seasons.

Granted some of that is probably time at the DH, that is almost unheard of from a catcher.

While Wieters doesn't get on base a whole heck of a lot, why would you want a catcher on base when he can clear Adam Jones, Manny Machado or Nick Markakis from the base paths with one swing of the bat.

I think Wieters is a tremendously underrated player who the Orioles should feel luck to have.

The 2014 success of the Orioles is going to be highlighted by the offensive fireworks they provide fans. I think the biggest downfall this team faces will be their pitching until they get it in order. Gaussman, Bundy and Rodriguez are great starts, but pitching takes time to develop and find success in the big leagues.

2014 may not be as fun of a year for the Orioles in the win column.

8 comments:

  1. LOL why would you post this terrible outlook on an Orioles fan pic on FB. Not even a mention of Chris Tillman, who is our best pitcher. We'll see what you have to say when were in the playoffs. (Also the Schoop pic is on the left not right).

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    1. Chris Tillman is a nice pitcher. Yea he won 16 games. Let's see if he can do it again. You're delusional if you think this team is making the playoffs. At best, this is the 3rd best team in the division. It would be almost impossible to send two teams from one division to the playoffs via the wild card. Not to mention you're going to have to contend with either Texas, LA, Oakland, Cleveland and likely Chicago for one of two wild card spots. Sorry dood. Math and logic aren't on your side.

      I'll gladly say I'm wrong if the O's are in the playoffs though.

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    2. R u serious Chicago in the A.L. for a wild card spot? I am not a fan of either but I would take a chance with Balt before Chicago's line up and staff. Convenient an Illinois resident left them in there by the way. Chicago was next to last in wins in the whole league? Will abreu bat every inning? How can u pretend to want to be taken seriously when u are not un baised in your predictions? Only the marlins and Astros were worse and u list them above k.c., Tampa, n.y. Good luck with ur white soxs if they have a better record then any team other than Houston sweet baby Jesus gave u a blessing

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    3. Convenient this "Illinois resident" isn't a Sox, Cards or Cubs fan.... But yea I'm biased. :/

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  2. One clear omission about your review of the team is defense. Last year, O's had six gold glove finalists and three gold glove winners...and the MLB record for fewest errors. Although the pitching could be better (Jimenez and progression of future stars will be nice), it helps that defense behind the picture isn't giving up unearned runs. The formula for success has been covering up just OK pitching with amazing pop in the offense and fantastic defense. With even slight improvements in pitching (and similar or more consistent closing from Hunter), no doubt that the O's can outscore any team in majors. Power ranking for O's is way too low. They'll easily be above .500 and competing for a wild card spot. And look for the splashy move midseason when they add a big name(s) to rotation or lineup.

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    1. Great defense didn't keep this team's ERA under 4 last year. Of all the major sports, team defense in baseball might be the least relevant thing to talk about. There's too many variables to ruling an error. PPG or yards allowed or whatever other stat in football/basketball is a better indicator of team defense. But go ahead and throw a bunch of irrelevant sabermetric stuff at me to prove your point.

      Also covering up OK pitching with pop gets you to about mid-August or early September. Hitters really decline as the year goes on (Chris Davis was the epitome of this last year)... Pitching takes you the distance. Lots of bats are definitely nice, but pitching is a proven commodity.

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    2. I'll give it to you that the pitching needs improvement, but ERA as a measure of comparison has its own problems. In the batter-friendly confines of Camden Yards, the O's pitchers will tend to have higher ERA's, not accounting for the fact that they just haven't been very good of late.

      Hope this doesn't get too complicated for you with all my sabermetric black magic on you, but when you compare pitching ERA (4.20) vs. batting ERA (4.44), or just runs (P 4.38 vs B 4.60), you can see why scoring more runs than given up can win the O's some games. That is the point after all. Is amazing however that Boston scored on average 1.25 more runs than they allowed.

      I expect pitching to be improved with the additions and pitching coach change (Also, it can't get much worse). Offense should be about the same, if not improved with Cruz (I still would rather have gotten Morales), a healthy Markakis, and Wieters hitting how he should be. Orioles should at least match the 85 wins they posted last year and be in discussions for a run at the postseason.

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