Friday, September 27, 2013

Future Outlook of Baseball

As we wind down the 2013 MLB season, the American League Wild Card races are coming down to the wire. And while we've pretty much go the post-season picture put together. But for the teams at the bottom looking to next year and beyond, there is plenty to lose for. And yes,  you read that right, lose for. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement benefits teams who lose by protecting top 10 picks if they go out and sign a Type A or B Free Agent.

So with that said, let's take a look at what the 2016 landscape COULD look like around Major League Baseball.

Sidenote -- This is MY best guess as to what FAs will do, what teams trading will do and obviously take into account a teams CURRENT minor league farm system. I'll format this like I do my annual MLB Preview.

American League West

1. Houston Astros - Five years of compiling terrific draft strategies and fast minor league development of those players will make Houston a rising power in the Americal League Western Division. After a brief stint with the big club in September last year, Carlos Correa is ready to showcase the talent that made Houston take him #1 overall in 2012. Add him to a line up already loaded with sluggers in Jon Singleton, George Springer, and Domingo Santana, 1-5, this Houston line up is going to be a force in a weaker than usual AL West. And the pitching in Houston is going to be absolutely terrific. #1 overall picks Mark Appel and Carlos Rodon (2014) will front a rotation that could easily have four 15-game winners. Look for the Astros to quickly be the class of the AL [West].

2. Seattle Mariners - Strong pitching and great hitters will keep the Mariners in the hunt in the AL West. Taijuan Walker is poised to be one of the American League's premier #2 pitchers behind King Felix. Southpaw's Danny Hultzen and James Paxton have nicely developed into a strong 3-4 duo on the back end of this rotation. Justin Smoak has turned into the middle of the order bat that made him one of baseball's top prospects years ago. Heavy hitter Kyle Seager could be a sneaky MVP candidate at 2B. The Mariners will contend for one of this year's two Wild Card spots at the least, if not this division.

3. Texas Rangers - When you throw out Yu Darvish and David Price every fifth day, you're going to win a lot of games, but the back end of this rotation is going to have to perform very well for the Rangers to remain atop the West. While he's always been touted as an above-average middle of the rotation pitcher, Derrek Holland just is not a good #3 option, but a terrific compilation of young talent in the minor leagues could stabilize the Texas rotation. Jurrickson Profar needs to take that step forward that made him the coveted #1 overall prospect a few years ago. I think there's just too many questions in Arlington for them to make the playoffs once again. I've never liked the way Ron Washington handles his young players, and I think after another season of missing the playoffs, they may just finally cut ties with the even-keel manager.

4. Oakland A's - Oakland always features strong pitching, but the lack of progress by some of their highly touted prospects (Michael Choice and Addison Russell mainly) I think holds this team back from being the usual competitor for the AL West crown.

5. LA Angels of Anaheim - A lack of minor league depth, aging hitters, and pitchers that are becoming unreliable have the Angels in an unusual role as a rebuilder. The Angels are fortunate Mike Trout has several years left of elite baseball, but I wouldn't be surprised if he and agent Scott Boras take a look at free agency.

American League Central 

1. Minnesota Twins - Like Houston, several years of high draft picks, quick and excellent development of those prospects has Minnesota poised to make a big time run in the American League. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario lead a very balanced line up. Joe Mauer's patience as the Twins rebuilt could be rewarded in a big way. Alex Meyer and Trevor May will be the anchors of a remade Twins rotation. Minnesota will be a force to be reckoned with for year's to come with this solid core of players.

2. Kansas City Royals - Despite losing Billy Butler to free agency, the Royals will lean on James Shields at the top, but big time arms in Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura are set to break out in the AL Central. The Royals offense may be a little challenged, but for the first time in a long time, the pitching in Kansas City figures to be as good as anyone's.

3. Detroit Tigers - Time is running out for this team to get that World Series win. After 4-straight division titles (2010-2013), the Tigers core is starting to age. Justin Verlander just isn't the same player anymore. Miguel Cabrera is starting to slow down from his torrid paces of two straight MVP crowns a few years ago, and while Prince Fielder has been a stellar addition, the Tigers core is just flat out aging. I look for Nick Castellanos to continue to rake and maybe even have a big time break out year. His time is now.

4. Cleveland Indians - After a large spending spree in 2013, the age of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher are beginning to catch up with the Tribe. Locking up Justin Masterson long term and adding Yovanni Gallardo through free agency should be nice additions to an already very potent line up. The time is now for Trevor Bauer to prove he can turn the corner and be an effective big league pitcher. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis will be a very solid middle infield duo.

5. Chicago White Sox - The rebuild continues in Chicago, but they have some big time talent in the pipeline that should be on the south side soon. The development of Avisail Garcia continues to be astonishing as he looks to turn the corner and be one of the games next superstars. The Sox are not far away from being a contender in the American League and the Central.

American League East

1. Tampa Bay Rays - When you can just reload your pitching rotation year after year, you're going to have a lot of success. Names like Alex Colome and Enny Romero will become household names while the anchors of the rotation Alex Cobb and Chris Archer should continue to be AL Cy Young contenders. I look for Mike Montgomery to finally have a break out year as a fifth starter in this rotation. After getting his first taste of big league action in September of last year, prized prospect Jorge Alfaro (C acquired in deal with Texas for David Price) and big time power hitter Joey Gallo (1B -- also acquired from Texas in Price deal) should shore up positions that have been big question marks in years past. Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Wil Myers will continue to anchor what should be a very potent Rays lineup.

2. Boston Red Sox - This rotation will rival the dominance of the Tampa rotation. Clay Bucholz will be joined by three, I think, pitchers that should break out this year in big ways, Henry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes. Now, not that I like Tampa's pitching more, I like their offense a little better than Boston's. That said, that doesn't mean Boston doesn't have any hitters. Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogarts and Garin Cecchini  are coming off break out year's in 2015 and should anchor a line up with already established sluggers Will Middlebrooks and Bryce Brentz. Watching Tampa and Boston slug it out for this division title should as fun as any race in baseball.

3. Toronto Blue Jays - You may look at all the players Toronto gave up (Noah Syndergaard and Travis d'Arneau the most notable)  just to get a bunch of talent that flopped and wonder, how are they a #3 in this division? The Jays actually managed to keep a lot of good talent. Aaron Sanchez will have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation (I look for him to be a break out player this year). An already solid line up, combined with underrated pitching should keep the Jays in contention in 2016.

4. Baltimore Orioles - The lack of pitching continues to hold this team back from being one of the American League's premier ball clubs. Somewhere the Orioles have to address this problem. We've seen the evolution of Manny Machado from a line drive hitter to a power hitter after his first 30 home run year in 2015. Machado will continue to be a mainstay in this line up and be one of the premier names in baseball. Chris Davis continues to just pound out home runs and is a premier power hitter in baseball. Pitching will continue to hold back the Orioles.

5. New York Yankees - Yankee fans are starting to get restless as the franchise does something that they rarely do... Build from within. Prospects Mason Williams and Gary Sanchez have not progressed the way they had hoped and time is beginning to run short for them to turn things around. The building from within though shouldn't be much longer before the Bronx Bombers are back in contention with a blend of youth in the minors.

National League West 

1. LA Dodgers - No surprises here. The Dodgers continue spend, spend, spend as they have dominated the West for three years now. Kershaw, Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and now Zach Lee make this rotation very lethal. The Dodgers have also assembled a fine bullpen thanks again to a very loaded pipeline. After getting a short look at 3B late last year, I look for elite prospect Corey Seager, (and yes this is Kyle Seager's younger brother) to establish himself as yet another fine offensive player to come out of this loaded farm system. I think the Dodgers experiment with Dee Gordon may just be over, which could shift Seager to more familiar territory at shortstop. The offspring of a couple former big-leaguers could join the fold in Los Angeles very soon as 3B Alex Santana (son of Rafael Santana) and Jesmuel Valentine (son of Jose Valentine) figure to be the next in line of quality players to be called upon. Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp will continue to battle for that NL MVP as the two try to lead the Dodgers to their fourth consecutive divisional crown.

2. Colorado Rockies - Very talented, young pitching should lead the Rockies back into contention after a long, drawn out rebuild. At the time, the return on Carlos Gonzalez was great, but some of those young arms just haven't developed like they had hoped. Between Jonathon Gray and Eddie Butler, the Rockies have a solid foundation for this rotation. Kyle Parker and Charlie Blackmon head a very nice offensive outfield, and look for prized prospect Rosell Herrera to be the next young SS to make a name for himself as the Rockies start calling upon some of these young hitters in their system.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks - 1-3 this rotation is loaded. Tyler Skaggs has turned himself into the ace the Snakes had hoped he would. The fast development of Archie Bradley will put him as ace 1A  for the Dbacks. And the young bats of Matt Davidson, Chris Owings, Adam Eaton and Paul Goldschmidt make the Diamondbacks a threat if Rockies or Dodgers can't get it done. Only reason I have them this low is the lack of bullpen depth.

4. San Diego Padres - The Padres come in fourth in the division simply because they lack the rotation depth possessed by LA and Colorado. But make no mistake about it, prized prospect Max Fried and ace Casey Kelly make the future of San Diego very bright, Max Wisler flies a little under the radar, but is a solid arm in the middle of their rotation. Look for Rymer Liriano to continue to rake at the big league level, as he develops into one of the top hitting OF in the NL West. Yonder Alonzo and Kyle Blanks should provide plenty fireworks at Petco Park. The Padres are absolutely a contender for a Wild Card spot this year if the back end of their rotation can shape up and they can find enough offense to win those slugfests.

5. San Francisco Giants - What a fall from grace this team has gone through. About the only constants for the Giants the past few years have been the Panda and Madison Bumgarner. But when you went on a two title in three years run, you can justify making some moves late in the season that parted with some big time prospects. That said, it doesn't mean the Giants have no hope for the future. Kyle Crick ,Clayton Blackburn and Chris Stratton are some young arms that should be nice compliments to ace Madison Bumgarner. The Giants should be able to scrap together some runs to give these pitchers a couple wins, but they really need to shore up the line up with some consistency.

National League Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals - The Redbirds saw Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha really turn into the top trio of starting pitchers in the league. Last year, the trio and the ageless Adam Wainwright led the Cards to their second divisional title in three years. Kolton Wong and Matt Carpenter continue to be on-base machines, which allowed for middle of the order hitters Allan Craig and Matt Holiday to drive in 100 runs for the 3rd straight year. Despite his injury woes in the minors, Oscar Taveras has remained fairly healthy, and late last year really showed the elite prospect he was regarded as just a few short years ago. Look for Taveras to add to an already powerful middle of the order in St. Louis. The dynasty in St. Louis continues to grow.

2. Chicago Cubs - Yes, that's right. The Cubbies time is now. Albert Almora and Jorge Soler put the injuries of their first full seasons in pro ball aside and quickly escalated through the system to join Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, and Arismendy Alcantara in what is quickly becoming a very tough line up. Kris Bryant will likely start the season in Triple-A, but look for him to pound, not just knock, on the door of the big league line up very soon. Once up, he is going to be a force in this line up. Jeff Smardjia heads a rotation that is very underrated in my opinion. CJ Edwards flew through the minor leagues, and should quickly turn into a reliable, top of the rotation pitcher. This may be the most dangerous line up in the big leagues come August/September, when I think the Cubs will be making a surprising move for the Wild Card, if not the division.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates -  The long awaited duo of Gerritt Cole and Jameson Taillon finally was put together for a full season, and wow did they dazzle. The duo returns with Matt Garza as a very solid #3 option for the Bucs. This offense has been terrific the past few years, and should only get better as Alen Hanson should add to the long list of up and coming shortstops. Pencil him in behind speedy leadoff man Starling Marte and when you look at a 3-4-5 of Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen and Gerritt Jones, the Bucs should be poised for another post-season run. Prized prospect Josh Bell will likely play himself into a role of some sort for this team. The switch-hitting OF though may have to wait for an injury or the offseason as Pittsburgh may look to deal either McCutchen or Marte.

4. Cincinnati Reds - For as highly touted as he was, Billy Hamilton just doesn't get on base enough to be an effective lead-off hitter. But this rotation remains the strength of the team. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should continue to benefit from playing in a band box. Look for Robert Stephenson to break out this year. He's a big right-hander who has front of the rotation potential.

5 - Milwaukee Brewers - The long drawn process of rebuilding continues in Milwaukee. As they try to find hitters to build around Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and Carlos Gomez. The offense can put runs up, but it's the pitching that continues to be the weak spot on this team, and the loss of Yovanni Gallardo is going to hurt a lot.

National League East

1. Washington Nationals - The Nationals continue to develop great talent out of the minor leagues. Getting his first try at a full time gig, I think Brian Goodwin is poised to have a big year. He's a 20/20 type player with great make up and joins a very loaded line up in the Nation's Capitol.  On top of that, this rotation one through three, is the best in the business. The Nationals will go for their 3rd division title in four years.

2. New York Mets - Four arms the Mets fans have longed to see together will finally spend a full season in the Citi. Harvey will front the rotation followed by workhourse Noah Syndergaard, then Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero. Carlos Gonzalez and Travis d'Arnaud bring some legitimacy to this line up. Last year was a break out year for Cesar Puello, the long time top prospect in the Mets system should be poised to repeat that performance. The Mets could be a force in this division if Washington falters.

3. Miami Marlins - A plethera of young talent I think is finally ready to turn it on. Headlined by aceS Jose Fernandez and southpaw Andrew Heaney. Sluggers Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton headlines a very solid line up. The Marlins youth still may hold them back but their days of contending in the National League and the National League East are not far.

4. Philadelphia Phillies - The rebuild in Philly is coming along nicely. Some young players, highlighted by Jesse Biddle, Maikel Franco, and Darin Ruf are ready to lead the Phils back to the postseason. The Phillies are waiting on a few prospects, but their days of once again contending in the NL East are not far. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the year they make a move.

5. Atlanta Braves - The Braves have had a great run with very strong pitching and streaky offense, but the all or nothing offensive Braves are not going to be able to keep up with the pitching rich NL East. The Braves may finish above .500, but I think this strike out heavy line up is doomed for a down year.

2016 NL Cy Young - Jose Fernandez (MIA)

2016 NL MVP - Yasiel Puig (LAD)

2016 NL ROTY - Kris Bryant (CHC)

2016 AL Cy Young - Kyle Zimmer (KC)

2016 AL MVP - Miguel Sano (MIN)

2016 AL ROTY - Joey Gallo (TB)

2016 World Series Winner - Tampa Bay Rays

1 comment: