Wednesday, March 29, 2017

2017 AL West Preview

  1. Houston Astros - I really love this team. One through nine in this order, there's no breaks. On the surface, the pitching leaves a little to be desired but I think there's enough there to win the division and I think that's what they do.

Bold prediction: We find out Yuli Guriel needs more seasoning, AJ Reed forces Houston to find another position for Guriel, which may not be possible given the depth the organization has.

Breakout player: Joe Musgrove SP

  1. Seattle Mariners - I've never been one to go all in with Seattle. If ever there was a year to do it, this would be the one and I'm just not going to fall into that trap. This team is going to score a lot of runs and they should pitch really well. But I'm not going to fall for the perpetual tease that is the Seattle Mariners. Don't @ me.

Bold prediction: The Ms play in the highest scoring American League Wild Card game to date.

Breakout player: Mitch Haniger OF

  1. Texas Rangers - In my opinion, the Rangers sold the cattle and livestock of the operation and now they're left with enough assets to look pretty from the highway but it's all downhill from there. They've got some nice pieces but I'm not sold they have enough to get back to the playoffs. Just too many questions for me. Back end of the rotation. Corner outfield spots. Bullpen is a huge question in my mind.

Bold prediction: Carlos Gomez returns to being a 20/20 player is the American League’s Comeback Player of the Year.

Breakout player: Tanner Scheppers RP

  1. Oakland Athletics - There's a lot to like about the A’s. In my mind, the team they start the year with will look vastly different than the one they end the year with. There's lots of young talent coming and it should give Oakland fans a lot of optimism, but I'm not optimistic they have enough to win now.

Bold prediction: Sean Manea emerges as one of the top young pitchers in the game and wins at least 16 games.

Breakout player: Ryon Healy 3B/DH
  1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Give Mike Trout a lot of credit. He is committing to a real dumpster fire on the west coast. No farm system. A pitching staff of who's who to go through the offices of Dr James Andrews. And an offense that tops the AARP list of highest earners. The Angels will not only be the West's cellar dwellers for years, but the American League and baseball’s.

Bold prediction: Not even the sympathy vote is enough to win Trout the MVP this year. It's not a popular opinion or even likely, but the Angels need to trade him and get lots and lots of prospects.

Breakout player: If I have to pick one, CJ Cron 1B/DH

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

2017 AL Central Preview

  1. Cleveland Indians - Perhaps the best pitching staff in all the American League, if not baseball, the Tribe is in great position to maintain their claim as AL champs. Corey Kluber is going to deliver but to me, the key for Cleveland is what they get out of Danny Salazar and Carlos Carasco. If they can get 25-30 starts from each, there's no reason the Indians shouldn't get back to the World Series.

Monday, March 27, 2017

2017 AL East Preview

  1. Boston Red Sox - A loaded lineup from top to bottom, the Red Sox boast the game's top prospect, the offseason’s biggest splash, and one of the game's best young players. It's hard not to see the Red Sox winning the AL East.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Yasiel Puig, Cubs Lineup, and Why MLB Needs To Adjust Their Scheduling Early in the Season

Before I begin, let’s not get crazy with our reactions. About six days ago, the sky was falling because the Cardinals were 0-3 and couldn’t score a run to save their lives. Since then, all I hear about is how many runs the Cardinals have scored compared to the Cubs.


Now Mets pitchers are all of a sudden struggling and the “Metsees” (as Keith Hernandez would say) are winless in their last three or whatever and Matt Harvey’s strikeouts are down, Jacob deGrom is dealing with a back issue and Steven Matz was just shelled by a right-handed heavy Marlins lineup.


Maybe, just maybe, it’s too soon to hit the panic button in some of these scenarios.


I want to start today though with the scheduling of Major League Baseball.


I sat last night, watching the Mets and Marlins play at a very cold Citi Field. I sat Sunday watching the Mets host the Phillies at a frigid Citi Field, and I watched Saturday night watching players and umpires do anything they could to keep any part of their bodies warm.


This is ridiculous. The worst thing is, that’s not the only baseball that I have seen in the cold weather this year or the last, well 20-whatever I’ve been watching.


Here’s the deal MLB: I know you want teams to get home games in the early part of the schedule. I understand that. I really do. But a warm-weather Marlins club playing the New York Mets in the first weeks of the season in the northeast, notoriously cold, is just ludicrous.



And yes, I do understand you can’t load up a warm or dome team’s schedule with all home games in the first few weeks of the season, I totally get that too.


And I’m not saying the Mets or Phillies or Twins or Tigers should play their first home game in mid-to-late April, but can we do a better job of scheduling?


Why are we playing so many night games when the temperature across the midwest and northeast drops almost 15-20 degrees once the sun sets at quarter to eight?


While these teams need home games, they also need fan support to make money at these events, and if you watched any baseball at all, section after section at stadium after stadium are empty, because who wants to go out and sit and watch a baseball game when game time temperatures are 45-degrees at best, and will only drop as the evening moves along?


Hell, who wants to even play in that? I used to and it totally sucks.


This is what baseball needs to to.


First, the first week of the season, there’s no reason the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros should be playing anywhere but their home parks, against teams like Minnesota or Detroit.


Second, the first almost three weeks of the season, games in cold weather cities (obviously excluding Milwaukee, Toronto and Seattle, who play in domes) need to be day games.


Why? Because the day time temperatures in these locations are significantly warmer than evening and night temperatures, drawing more fans, making the game better to be a part of for the players and more watchable for the fan in the stands and at home.


Additionally, day games need to be scheduled in case rain and inclement weather pushes the start times back.


But finally, warm weather games need to be scheduled because teams probably aren’t bringing in the money the normally do during a fair-to-good weather day at the ballpark.


Just taking a stab in the dark judging by the empty seats you see all over the place at these early season games.


And, again, I do realize a lot of these seats are probably empty because people aren’t inclined to take work off early in the year, especially with kids in school still, to go to the ballpark, but the junk weather is making that decision to stay in so much easier.


This is something that has bothered me for a long time and watching a warm weather Miami Marlins team play in New York last night was really annoying to watch. 

Other notes: 



  • Don’t look now, but the lightning rod that is Yasiel Puig is off to a roaring start in 2016. So far, Puig has a home run, 4 RBIs and a 5:4 BB:K ratio.



  • The Chicago Cubs overcame a 3-run deficit and were no-hit through almost seven innings and still won Monday night proving just how difficult it will be to not only shut this offense out, but hold them down an entire game. I’m setting the over/under at 3 for shutouts of this offense this season.




  • Speaking of being shut out, the Tampa Bay Rays offense continues to slide early in the year. I’ve said it over and over and over, but the Rays have the pitching to beat any offense on any night, will their bats give them enough support to get past that three-run threshold that I think is going to be the key number for this team this year? It’s a rock fight every night you play Tampa and the first to three is usually going to be the winner.



  • We got our first glimpse of the future outfield in Texas a few years ago, when Joey Gallo, then a third basemen, made his big league debut. Now Nomar Mazara is the latest Rangers phenom to break into the big leagues and has done so in amazing fashion (5-for-8 with a HR, 2 RBIs). The Rangers have a special player in Mazara with another one in Lewis Brinson right behind him. I said it earlier this weekend, that outfield in Texas is going to be the best in baseball as soon as next summer. I would not want to be a pitcher in the American League West in the near future.



  • Speaking of the AL West, they’re the only league without a team above .500 thus far (as of Tuesday’s games). I picked the A’s to win the division, and if their pitching staff finds health and consistency, that’s not a team that you want to get down in the mud and play in July, August or September. Billy Beane put together a really good team this year. As Brad Pitt said in Moneyball, “You may not look like a winning team, but you are one.” 2016 totally epitomizes the moneyball mentality of the Oakland A’s.


There’s just a few early thoughts of mine as we get into the 2016 MLB season, I’m going to work on a prospect piece for you. Some guys to keep an eye on in the minors this summer.

Check out my Facebook Page, Seth’s Sports Talk or follow me on Twitter, @seth_sportstalk. Always active and up for good sports discussion.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

The Offseason of the New York Mets

You know guys, I was thinking about this.... It's been the offseason of the New York Mets.

It's crazy. Even though the Royals won the World Series and the Cubs had the headlines early with adding Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist, but the buzz is all about those pitchers - then Mike Piazza gets voted to the Hall of Fame.

Then they swoop in and resign Yoenis Cespedes - stunning everyone.

Now they announce Piazza is gonna get his number retired this summer.

I know a lot of teams are getting better too, but the Mets are winning the offseason with the headlines.

Now they gotta do it on the field.

It's a good time to be a Mets fan.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Can John Groce Win Illinois Fans Back Over?

If you're an Illinois fan, you're probably all about wins and losses with Illinois. If you're not all about that you're all about progress and the kids getting better and all that.
Let's be honest, the players under John Groce that we expect to get better, are getting better. Malcolm Hill is leaps and bounds better than he was as a freshman. Kendrick Nunn, it's the same. I want him to find consistency, but he's getting better. You can't argue that. Look at what Michael Finke is doing. I would be willing to bet he's doing far more than you thought he'd do. If LeRon Black were to get healthy, I'd be willing to bet he'd be making similar strides. I really believe that based on what is happening with guys around him.
Here's my biggest gripe w/ John Groce and this program as of now. He talks about leadership, toughness, and guys finding cohesiveness among each other, it's really tough to do that when the role players of your team are changing year to year. Right now, Hill, Nunn and Tate are the only guys that have been in the program their whole careers as upper classman in the last several year, really since the Richardson/Paul/Griffey group. I guess Egwu was too so add one]
You can't build a relationship when you have your guys that are supposed to be leaders who are a basically one and dones. Do Hill and Nunn and Tate need to start taking more of a role there, probably.
To me, it all comes down to him being unable to build up the program through recruiting and missing out on [unrealistic] targets, and then being forced to piece the team together through graduate transfers.
It's been a disastrous start for him. So with the presumption he's back next year after all the injuries and such this year, he'll no doubt be on the hot seat.
Here's my scenario where I'd like to see Groce through.
First of all if he can grab a few more recruits this year to add to Tejon Lucas. I really think he's going to be a dynamic player. I think that was a great get by Groce. He doesn't have to get all four star guys, but build depth. Get a big guy (ie Nick Rakocevic). I'd really like Ben Coupet out of Simeon. Probably no interest there but still. I like Coupet, just want that on record.
Next year: I'd like to see him win the games he's supposed to win in non-conference. I'd like to see some competitive Big Ten games. Blowouts at Indiana, a loss at home to Nebraska (this particular Nebraska team at least) to me are not acceptable. I need him to make the Assembly Hall (errr - State Farm Center) a place where teams simply don't win. I need him win a few Big Ten road games. Anymore Big Ten road wins are asked for, not just expected at places not MIchigan State or Wisconsin.
I need a 20 win campaign to reinvigorate my enthusiasm.
I'd like to see him continue to build on the '17 class. Javon Pickett is a great start but I don't care who it is, where they come from (I'd prefer Chicago or the St. Louis area) but just get a four star, hell, even a five-star here recruit.
Make me want to keep him (Groce) around and see what he can do.
That's a lot. I realize that, but it's not impossible, in fact, I think it's just the very basics of what Illinois fans expect and frankly, they should.
I think Groce can do it. I really do. But if he starts to stumble at any point, I just don't know if I can buy into him.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 2 Reaction

Have I ever said how much I love the Winter Meetings?
I was ready to Tweet and react to my heart’s content yesterday throughout the day but then nothing happened. I get home from work and I have to go back and all hell breaks loose and everybody decides to lose their minds.
Diamondbacks/Braves Blockbuster
Here’s my biggest takeaway from Day 2 of the Winter Meetings: No matter who’s in charge, no matter how much progress you think they are making, the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to continue do boneheaded things.
Everyone talks about how improved this rotation is and how the National League West is now on notice.
Friends, I buy it a little bit. But let’s not ignore the fact they just mortgaged the future to incrementally make themselves better. They paid paid for Park Avenue but are getting Prospect Heights.
Yes, Shelby Miller is coming off his best season as a pro and is only 25 but if we go back to his minor league days, Miller has always struggled with control.
He’s had a great pro career but his walk to strikeout ratio is a hair-above 2-to-1. His WHIP is OK, 1.24 for his career, and his 3.22 ERA is pretty good.
Is Miller a good add for Arizona, yes, he is. But what get’s me about the Dbacks is they gave up too much. 
Too much.
Dansby Swanson was the number one overall pick last year for a reason. If he has a good, not great or stellar, but good year in the minor leagues, he could be in the big leagues this fall.
I’ve always liked Aaron Blair. I thought he was as close as any prospect to the big leagues and as promising a prospect as Arizona had other than maybe Archie Bradley.
I personally think Blair alone, is going to end up better than Miller. But the Diamondbacks totally went over the deep end and added their future shortstop to the mix.
Not to mention, giving up Ender Inciarte, who finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, then followed that performance up with an even better one in 2015.
I just cannot fathom Arizona once again, proving how absolutely inept they are at running a franchise. It is just astounding. If I was a Dbacks fan, I would hate this trade.
Ownership has put their fanbase in a tough spot, because this team has promise. They could have stood pat this winter and been an arguable favorite in the west.
I actually would like to redact what I said that this deal actually makes the Diamondbacks WORSE. Worse in the long run.
They gave up a franchise shortstop with no reasonable options at the position for the long term. They gave up a guy with the ceiling of a one or two starter and a very solid outfielder that would have been a huge part of an already stellar offense.
I just do not understand this team, it’s management, or what they are trying to accomplish.
If they wanted a starting pitcher and they were hell bent on using that particular set of players to get one, personally, I think they could have done a helluva lot better than Shelby Miller.
But that’s my opinion.

That said, how much pitching do the Atlanta Braves need?
I’ve tweeted time and again, the Atlanta Braves are going to have a record ERA in a few years, however, they’re going to have an absolutely inept offense.
John Hart and his staff has completely revamped the Braves pitching rotation for the future. There is no question. This rotation is going to be beyond scaring, it’ll be frightening, especially if a handful of the dozens of talents they have pan out.
But where are they going to get runs from?
There is always the possibility they trade their arms for a bat or two, and that could likely happen, but the way this future lineup is constructed, there is next to no firepower, especially if they are still set on trading Freddie Freeman.
Dansby Swanson is now the obvious replacement for Andrelton Simmons. It scares me to have Swanson now in the NL East, but good for the Braves.
Other than him, where are the Braves going to find any offense? Of their top ten prospects, just two are hitters (Swanson) and the other is a low-level shortstop.
I don’t know where the Braves want to go with all this, and I don’t know that they know where they want to go with all this, but it is looking mighty good to be a Braves fan right now.
Eventually, they are going to have to put runs on the board to support these arms and get some victories.
We’ll see if Johnny Hart has some more tricks up his sleeve as we go forward. He’s basically robbed everybody out west of their young talent to this point.

Cubs
Here’s where I come out with this Cubs adding Zobrist and moving Castro.
I think the move is great.
First of all, thank you Theo and Jed for taking Zobrist away from the Mets. I had no interest in that guy coming to New York.
Not because I don’t like Zobrist, but let’s consider the Mets roster construction. Strong young pitching. But if you add Zobrist, you have three 35-plus year old players on your roster at some point next season that need playing time because of their salaries.
Additionally, you’re pretty much at the corner spots with Duda and Wright, and let’s not kid ourselves, David Wright is a shell of his former self.
So all in all, I’m OK with Chicago “stealing” Zobrist from the Mets.
I think he adds another great bat to their lineup. I think he gives them tremendous flexibility if or when, the Cubs need. And I think he’s just a downright, solid, hard working baseball player that is going to be a great mentor to some of the young players they’re developing.
As for Castro, I know the Cubs sold very low on him.
His trade value has never been tremendous and most Cubs fans and baseball people would probably admit he was always going to be the odd man out there.
I know the Cubs liked Adam Warren, and that’s fine. But I thought they could have done better. I think they caught themselves in the midst of the Zobrist negotiations and realized they had to do something with their middle infield, and found the first suitor that would take Castro.
From the Yankees end of things, I think it's a great move. Castro is likely to place second base from everything I saw, and I think he is going to thrive in that ballpark.
Reactionary move if you ask me.

A couple other things from Day 2:

  • As a Mets fan, I really think they need to bring Cespedes back. This is a middle of the pack lineup as constructed without him. If they go into 2015 without Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes with no upgrades anywhere else on the field, except to play Michael Conforto regularly, then I can’t live with that and as a fan, I’ll be livid. I know there’s already too many outfielders on this roster, but guess what? There were already too many outfielders on the roster when he was added back in July. Terry and company can figure it out or they can easily trade someone to make room (Maybe Granderson who will be 35 on Opening Day and I can’t say I count on him repeating his 2015 performance, which was way better than I ever thought he could do). I need firepower and someone in the lineup that makes it respectable, and Cespedes is the guy. I don’t want to hear about his defense and his unwillingness to play centerfield or right field or whatever. It can be done because it already has. The Mets clearly don’t care about defense because Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy was their Opening Day middle infield and Travis d’Arnaud is our catcher.

  • I sat and blasted the Diamondbacks for their ineptitude, it’s time I do the same to the Marlins for even considering moving the best arm they’ve maybe ever had to come through their system.
    This is so typical Marlins. Rob Manfred and the powers that be aren’t going to tell Miami they can’t move Fernandez, but if this trade happens, baseball has to address Jeffry Loria and his ownership of that franchise and do a comprehensive top to bottom analysis of what’s best for them and the city. It’s beyond disgraceful the way things are handled year to year in Miami, not to mention they have a state of the art, brand new stadium that has yet to have a winner on the field and at the same time is being financed by the taxpayers. Miami not only deserves a winner, there is absolutely no reason under their perpetual sun they can’t have one. It’s a terrific market with a lot of money and diversity and city that actually wants a baseball team. Disgraceful.

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 1 Reaction

I love the winter meetings.


There is likely more activity in the three or four days of the meetings than the rest of the entire winter. Granted, a lot of the big contracts will probably signed closer to Christmas, or soon thereafter, but the groundwork for those deals is usually laid this time of year and then a lot of trades go down as a byproduct of a lot of those talks.


It’s almost your appetizer to Spring Training.


So without much further ado, I want to react to day 1 (yes, I know I’m very late).


My day 1 highlights:


Wade Miley to Seattle for RP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias.


This deal caught my eye.


The ballpark in Seattle is huge. It’s a hitters nightmare and a pitchers paradise. Miley struggled mightily in Boston this last year. (He wasn’t the only one of course)


But in previous years in Arizona, Miley was a solid pitcher, throwing to a 3.79 ERA but a 4+ ERA last year in Boston.


I think Miley bounces back in Seattle.


For the Red Sox, they continue to bolster their bullpen by adding Smith who had a terrific year in Seattle. He’ll likely set up the recently acquired Craig Kimbrel.


But I’m not sure what to think on Roenis Elias. I really like this guy.


Cuban lefty with filthy stuff. My issue is Elias has always had a notoriously high WHIP and BABIP. (Career 1.30 WHIP, .290 BABIP). Part of my fondness with him was also the fact he played in a very hitter friendly ballpark. But then I went back and looked, Elias actually had a better ERA away from SafeCo than he did there.


That surprised me and made me wonder if perhaps he can succeed in Boston but in a league full of hitters parks (Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium and Fenway), I do have my doubts.


The upside for Elias is he can strike out a ton of guys. He struggles with control but when he’s on, he is unhittable.


I’ll wait and see before I say I don’t like him in Boston.


A couple left-handed we had thought were on the move yesterday ultimately didn’t go anywhere. It’s obvious the off-field troubles recently for Aroldis Chapman are holding back his trade value.


I thought early in the day, we were going to see Scott Kazmir sign in Kansas City. From everything I’ve seen so far, there is a ton of interest in him. I like Kazmir but I think the ballpark he will ultimately throw in is what is going to make him valuable for me. I think he needs a hitters park where he can get guys to put the ball in play. He’s becoming less and less of a strikeout pitcher and is going to have rely on guys putting the ball in play.


Alright, I have to address Jason Heyward.


I’ve watched Jason Heyward from the day he came to the big leagues with hype equal to probably Mike Trout. I don’t think that is a stretch. People loved this guy.


And after one season in St. Louis, the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase is ready to pay this man like he’s Trout or Bryce Harper.


Friends, I don’t mince words when I talk about Jason Heyward; the man is overrated.


I can admit he was one of the better outfielders in baseball this past year. He was. There’s no question.


But here’s the thing folks: It was a walk year for him. He was playing for the next contract.


How many guys have we seen in that scenario with a huge walk year? The names are endless. Carlos Beltran. Jayson Werth. Johnny Damon. Jason Bay. Matt Holliday.  Just to name a few.


Guys get paid after they have a big year. And that’s fine. That’s what they are supposed to do: cash in.


But let’s not act like Jason Heyward has turned the corner, because quite honestly, that line is worn out on this baseball guy.


I’ve seen Heyward have months that he looks like an MVP and I’ve thought to myself, “my God, if this guy does this until September, he’s the unanimous MVP”.


But he NEVER has!


His splits month to month every year are drastic.


I put out yesterday Heyward’s OPS year to year and it totally epitomizes what the man is all about: Inconsistency.


But let’s not make OPS to be the ultimate definition of his success. What does Jason Heyward do well?


He doesn’t strike out. I don’t think any team will says they don’t like that about him.


His glove is tremendous. As evidenced by his three Gold Gloves. Again, no team is going to say they don’t like that about him.


He runs the bases incredibly well.

One statistic I have recently come across I really like is weighted runs created, or wRC.


I feel like wRC is a great way of quantifying how a player impacts the game beyond their traditional stat line. And when it comes down to it, Jason Heyward just isn’t elite.


Last year, in one of his best years as a pro, he wasn’t even top 25, in fact he was 39th.


Cardinals fans want to argue, well maybe he’s turned the corner. Well it’s because he plays in St. Louis.


I never argue with the metaphysical philosophy that because a guy plays in St. Louis, his level of play will automatically rise.


Until now.


It just won’t happen with Jason Heyward.


My personal belief is: if the Cardinals are the team to give this guy the $150-million he is seeking, this fan base will be tired of him by year two. They’ll forgive a down year off the big contract, but by June or July, of 2017, you’ll see what I’m talking about.


I know where I stand with Heyward. I’ve watched him. Being a Mets fan, you know I’ve watched him. I’ve tracked him. I’m not surprised he surpassed his career averages in almost every statistical category after a year in St. Louis. It was as predictable as the sun rising.


But again, to me, he’s a product of being in a walk year. Not a new environment.


I think, wherever he ends up, we see Heyward regress to the Heyward of old, and not the one-year Cardinal-wonder Heyward.


This has nothing to do with the Winter Meetings, just some baseball tidbits I put out yesterday.


  • In 2015, Noah Syndergaard became the second rookie pitcher in MLB history with at least 160 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks in a season.
    • So basically the kid throws 100 MPH will pinpoint control. When he figures out how to limit his H/9 (better pitch selection/getting ahead in the count more consistently) it's all over.
  • Jacob deGrom's 2015 FIP went up from 2.67 in '14 to a whopping 2.70 in '15. Simply put: young blood is going to be here for a long time.