3 Pitchers To Watch in the 2nd Half

With the All-Star break upon us, let’s take a look ahead at some names to watch as we head towards the second half of the season next weekend.

In this piece, I’m going to focus my attention on the pitchers.

I’ll be honest, I do a lot of fantasy baseball and there’s a lot of things I look for, among those are team. Is the team a winner and going to give the guy run support? Ballpark. Where are most of his starts going to be? If it’s a hitters park, I tend to shy away, but if it’s a pitchers park, I will always take a long hard look at someone. Prior experience. If you’ve read just a few of my posts, you know by now, I am in love with the college pitchers, and a few of the guys on this list come from the college ranks.

I’ll start with a guy from Oakland, Jesse Hahn.

Part of the Derek Norris trade with San Diego, Hahn was a sixth round pick in 2010 by Tampa out of Virginia Tech, he has been traded twice now and has landed in a perfect spot for a him.

There’s a lot to like about Jesse Hahn. His 2015 campaign started slow, but since May 9, when his ERA was an inflated 4.73, Hahn is 5-4 with a 2.97 ERA, 48 Ks and 21 BB. Additionally, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a stellar .265 (well below the league average of .297). BABIP is usually inflated from a traditional batting average and is an indicator of progression or regression for both pitchers and hitters.

Hahn’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is at 3.70, which suggests his current 3.35 ERA is more in line with where he will end up at season’s end, but if he continues to pitch well, I can’t say I’d be surprised if he ends up closer to a 3-ERA or below that.

Another reason to be optimistic about Hahn is pitching in Oakland is a real treat, and I’m not being sarcastic. The outfield is incredibly spacious, as is the foul territory. With perhaps more foul territory than any other venue in all of sports, often times balls that traditionally reach the seats in other parks, are outs at the Coliseum.

This really explains the resurgence of Scott Kazmir and success of a guy like Hahn.

Another reason to like Hahn is he doesn’t fall behind in the count. His first pitch strike percentage (60%) is right in line with league average, however, the amount of 3-0 counts he gets into are very low.

Hahn isn’t going to put up Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey numbers, but he’s a very good starter and Billy Beane definitely got a steal in his deal for Derek Norris over the winter.

If you’re in the fantasy baseball world and Jesse Hahn is still available, go get him. He’s a quality starter who’s going to give you a quality 60% of the time (statistically speaking).

A once highly touted lefty that took much longer than anticipated to make the big leagues is my next subject.

Mike Montgomery began his career as a first round pick of the Kansas City Royals in 2008. He was a part of the mega-deal that sent Wil Myers to Tampa, then was sent to Seattle as a part of the mega-deal that sent David Price to Detroit the three team trade with Seattle.

I’ve long liked Montgomery but his extended stay in the minors started to get me frustrated with watching him. After a little thought though, I have come to the conclusion it wasn’t all his fault.

Think about it for just a minute. Before KC moved him, he probably wasn’t exactly ready to pitch in the big leagues and then he goes to Tampa, which is the pitchers Mecca of baseball, and was stuck behind a laundry list of quality pitchers, including but not limited to David Price, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore.

So obviously the chances he was going to get weren’t going to be extended, and obviously, he never threw an inning for Tampa in the big leagues.

The situation he was entering in Seattle was perhaps just as crowded. Montgomery was towards the bottom of the totem pole that included Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen.

With injuries to Paxton and Hultzen and struggles by other starters in Seattle, Montgomery is now getting his chance.

In 50 innings, Montgomery has two complete game shutouts, a 1.62 ERA and a FIP of 3.26.

What’s even more to like about Montgomery is he pitches in Seattle. While the sample size for him is small (29.1 innings, 2.15 ERA and a .89 WHIP), it’s not uncommon for guys to pitch well there.

Seattle as a team at home is almost an entire run better than they are on the road.

Now, I realize Montgomery isn’t going to play every game in SafeCo, and that’s certainly more than fair but so far, 4 of his 7 starts have been at home and if you’re making half your starts at home, and you pitch well there, then it should be a very good second half for Montgomery.

On top of the fact he was once a highly regarded arm in two very good minor league systems.

My final pitcher to look out for in the second half is Brewers RHP Taylor Jungmann.

Jungmann was a very highly thought of right-hander out of Texas in the 2011 draft and the Brew Crew landed, but since draft day, Jungmann has been a huge disappointment.

That said, his start to his major league career has been really good. A 2.43 ERA in 37 innings with a 1.10 WHIP has been very impressive.

A fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 3.53 suggests a likely decline in the second half should not be as dramatic as what his minor league numbers showed, which were a career 4.10 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. (I like pitchers to have a WHIP around 1.2)

But what’s even more encouraging is Jungmann isn’t walking batters (only 2.4 per 9 innings), something he struggled mightily with in the minors (averaged 4.4 BB/9 at Triple-A this year).

Additionally, the batting average on balls in play for Jungmann so far this year is only .271 and the league average is .297.

So far, he’s been really good in not keeping balls in the park and not finding himself “lucky” to this point.

So what’s been the difference for Jungmann so far? It’s really hard to say. Writers think his pitch selection in recent starts has been better. Some think he’s destined to regress greatly.

While it’s certainly hard to see Jungmann keeping this pace up, he is a big guy (6’6 220) and was once an elite pitcher out of college, which of course, is something I find very favorable about him.

Sometimes it takes knowing you’re facing the best to bring out the best in you. If that’s the case for Jungmann, perhaps the Brewers should have brought him along much sooner.

Other pitchers to keep an eye on after the break:

>>Reds RHP Michael Lorenzen (3.53 ERA 71 innings)

>>Twin LHP Tommy Milone (Since June 4 1.84 ERA 32/11 K/BB .236 BAA .277 BABIP)

>>Dodgers RHP Zach Lee (2.38 ERA 44/12 K/BB 1.09 WHIP @ Triple A Oklahoma City)

>>Rangers RHP Anthony Ranaudo (3.39 ERA in 72 innings @ Triple A Round Rock)