The Illinois basketball program enters perhaps one of the most important weeks under John Groce as they play at “neutral” sites against Villanova and Oregon.
I can’t help but say this might just be the most important week under John Groce, Illinois has had yet. While Oregon isn’t as good as they were last year, they are still highly regarded and are likely to finish in the upper half of a power conference. A couple wins this week against quality BCS opponents could go a long ways in re-establishing Illinois as a regular, legitimate power in the college basketball landscape.
But as big of a week as it is for Illinois, that’s not the purpose of today’s thoughts. Having watched most every minute of each game, I wanted to just to throw out some things I’ve noticed in observing Illinois this year.
First of all, Nnanna Egwu is playing at a high level to start this year. What I’ve been impressed with about with him the first three years is he’s an incredibly hard worker. Not having a complete all around game, Egwu has had to work on a lot of areas over the last several years and has come a long ways.
Watching Egwu play this season, it feels like every aspect of his hard work is coming together. His defense has always been sound but his post game is really rounding into form and you can see the strides he’s making with his jump shot. Normally, your point guard is the floor general, but Egwu has taken up that role for Illinois, and in my opinion, he’s done a great job with it. His numbers aren't anything to gawk at but it's the little things and leadership that are what are standing out to me.
How good are Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn? After the first ⅔ of last year when Groce decided to throw these two in the starting lineup, you knew they’d be good, and Hill has only built on what he started last year. The same is true for Nunn, but a summer injury that carried into the fall has slowed him a bit.
To me, watching Nunn is liking watching a guy who’s dateless out with his best friend and his girlfriend. He belongs but the circumstances make his presence awkward. Right now, he’s delegated to a second team role, but belongs with the first team. The problem is, there’s no room for him with the first team. Nunn, without question, has ability to be a starter at Illinois and any other Big Ten school. When he works his way back into the starting rotation, look out, because he can be a dual-threat guard that can beat you with the jump shot and the dribble-drive.
As for Hill, my goodness. The kid can stroke the three and drive to the rim with the strength of an upperclassmen. If there’s one thing I remember about last season that really sticks out is the first Michigan State game when Hill had just started to really come on, he was one of the few effective players on the floor that night, and Groce was imploring the freshman to take over the game because as I could hear Groce screaming from the upper-deck, “THEY CAN’T GUARD YOU!” He was a freshman against a team with as experienced as any in the entire country. If a team like that can’t guard him as a freshman, it’s going to exciting to see what he does as this season wears on and as he grows in the Illini system.
I’ve been extremely impressed by the strides Jaylon Tate has made. Guiding one of high school’s top teams a few years ago in Chicago Simeon, Tate is starting to become that guy that was distributor to the high flying Simeon teams who captured an unprecedented four straight IHSA state championships. Last year, Tate was really a one-trick pony for Groce, and thus, didn’t see a lot of floor time, but he’s really become sixth-man 1A to Nunn off the bench for the Illini. I’ll talk about Starks in just a bit, but if he doesn’t pick his game up a little bit, I can’t say I’d be surprised if Tate moves into his spot as starting point guard. I am hesitant to say that will happen even though Groce’s go-to phrase is “players play players”.
A couple guys I’ve been very impressed with in the early going are Leron Black and Maverick Morgan.
Morgan has really come a long ways as well. Coming out as a freshman, the consensus seemed to be Morgan was a raw 7-footer who was going to need a lot of seasoning. While he’s maturating as a player, he still has a long ways to go. His offense has come a long ways, I personally think his defense is still a work in progress, but the potential is there for him to step in and fill Egwu’s hole next year. I like what I'm seeing so far as the Illini competition begins to get better. Hopefully he continues to play himself into big minutes as the Big Ten season approaches.
A couple guys I have been a little under whelmed by are the transfers Aaron Cosby and Ahmad Starks. Averaging just under ten points per game, their performances have been solid at times and completely non-existent at others. Coming in, it was made out many that cover the team on a regular basis, the two were going to greatly improve the deep shooting, however, in my mind, it’s not them that has made Illinois a better three point shooting team, it’s the improvements of Rice, Hill and Egwu from the perimeter. In fact, both players three point percentages are down from their time at their former schools. Cosby is certainly a silent assassin on the floor and when he’s hot it will rain threes, but when he’s cold, it’s a long day.
To me, Starks is way too shaky from distance, and doesn’t really take good shots. Truth be told, I’d rather see Nunn and Tate on the floor to start the game over those two.
Admittedly, I do realize it is early and Starks and Cosby did sit out a year and it may take them a little bit to get back into the swing of the game, so I will reserve final judgement on them for quite a while.
He’s on pace to drain nearly fifty percent of his threes and shoot 55% from the floor as a non-post player. Those are incredible numbers, if he can last through the Big Ten season, which last year he couldn’t. In my mind, this year is a completely different story because when Rice is on the bench, Illinois doesn’t lose nearly as much as they did last year, so he can rest more. BUT, I’d say Rice could quite possibly play an equal amount of minutes in Big Ten games for the simple reason Illinois has more options on the floor and more quality depth off the bench. With more support on the floor, it's going to be interesting how Groce decides to handle the minutes for his star.
If Rice keeps up what he’s doing, he could be a steal late in the first round or even second round of the NBA draft for a team like say, the LA Clippers who desperately need a wing player.
Is Groce building a powerhouse, no. But he’s building a regular top 25 program that’s going to make it into the second weekend of March Madness regularly and will have the talent to make the Elite 8 very soon.
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