Thursday, December 5, 2013

Patience Is A Virtue: Illinois Building a Winner

It's amazing how you don't know what you have until it's gone.

Two years ago, the Illinois football program started their season with big wins over Arizona State, the Pac-12's preseason dark horse, and a high powered Western Michigan offense. After the 6-0 start came the surprising 0-6 finish that ultimately led to the demise of Ron Zook.

While the 0-6 finish shocked Illini nation and the Big Ten. After Illinois trounced a pretty awful Indiana team, the Illini proceeded to lose three expected games to Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan. The shocking loss was Purdue, who was actually quite strong despite their poor football reputation.

A loss at home against Wisconsin wasn't anything unexpected but then there was another shocking loss to Minnesota, a game Illinois should have won but pretty much didn't show up.

When you look closer at that season, Illinois was incredibly reliant on four guys, two of which were pretty big playmakers and ended up being first round picks in the following year's NFL Draft. Defensive end Whitney Mercilus and wideout AJ Jenkins were the primary playmakers that season and Jenkins was sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase's favorite target. Once Illinois beat Arizona State and jumped into the top 25, everybody saw if you take away Jenkins and make those mediocre backs and two and three option receivers beat you, the Illini weren't going to have much success. And obviously they didn't.

Whitney Mercilus tore the country apart the first six games of the season, then they got into the grueling Big Ten season and he didn't fare as well. He played well enough though, Houston liked him and took him late in the first round in that following spring in the NFL draft.

Illinois had two first round picks on that team, and two second round picks. Two offensive lineman, a defensive lineman and their top receiver.

After the 0-6 finish, Ron Zook of course met his fate at Illinois and was ushered out. Looking back, even though Zook was run out of town, he really had quite a tenure at Illinois as far as recruiting and developing terrific, young players. He just could not turn it into postseason games.

A new era.

Enter Tim Beckman. Expectations are now [once again] high because of a new Athletic Director who brings a lot of hype, promise and a new way of doing business. Expectations are high because a team full of talent underachieved the previous season.

But rightfully so, there were people who said, who is Tim Beckman? Oh-- he's had one stint as a head coach and had one winning season -- in the MAC no less. Needless to say, there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm surrounding his hire.

Beckman hadn't even blown his whistle to start his first practice and the deck was already stacked against him.

How's so?

For starters, do I need to mention the four top 60 picks they lost to the NFL draft?

So he's already down four studs on a team with almost no skill position talent. Literally no running backs. Donovan Young was the only runningback on the roster that had carried the ball in a college football game before. He relied on a handful of true freshman and a couple redshirt freshman.

He's already walked into a quaterback controversy because he had the two year starter Nathan Scheelhaase and promising pocket passer Reilly O'Toole. That didn't make things better. His offensive and defensive lines have little size on top of everything else.

It just wasn't going to happen for him. Not one coach in the country would have come in and made Illinois any sort of contender in the Big Ten with that team. Not one. Not Urban Meyer, not Nick Saban, not Les Miles, not Chip Kelly, not Brian Kelly. Not one.

Illinois goes 2-10 under Beckman the first year and doesn't win a Big Ten game. Not really surprising. At least to me. The Illini fan that put too high of an expectation on this man was calling for his head. I know a lot of people don't like Mike Thomas, but I respect his decision to give Beckman a second year. After all, when you sit back and look at it objectively, Illinois wasn't in a position to win at all.

Then Beckman loses more key players. Offensive lineman Hugh Thornton was a second round pick to the Colts. Akeem Spence gets lost to the Bucs in the fourth round of the spring's NFL draft. Michael Buchannon was a 7th round pick to the Pats. Illinois was already very shorthanded, and it got worse in year two for Beckman.

But then this fall, with expectations already low, you start to see some things you can build on. After an injury plagued season and battling two differing styles of co-offensive coordinators, Nathan Scheelhaase is finally looking like he could be a relevant Big Ten QB with stability in the play calling. The run game is getting going thanks to the effective air game.

They escape a scare from Southern Illinois. They handled Cincinnati, who has been a dark horse in the American Athletic Conference, and are now sitting at 8-2 on the season and in the driver's seat to challenge Louisville and Central Florida. They played tough with the Washington Huskies, who were an early season surprise in the Pac-12, at a neutral site in Chicago. If we're being honest, I don't think anyone gave Illinois a chance in that game, but they played tough all day and made it a game late. The Illini lost, and it would be the only loss of their non-conference slate.

But once again, the Big Ten season rolled in and the Illini fell on hard times. Three tough losses to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State really did not sit well with Illini nation after a better than expected start.

Then they go to Happy Valley to take on a very surprising Penn State Nittany Lions group that was overachieving with almost nothing to look forward to. The Illini start slow, make a game of it in the second half, and unfortunately fall on an interception that could have set up a tie.

Then Illinois plays a back and forth contest in Bloomington, Indiana but late mistakes cost them.

They host Ohio State who are ridiculous favorites, and for good reason. But Illinois showed heart, if nothing else, and made Ohio State earn the victory. Late mistakes did in Illinois, but all Ohio State fans I've heard from say they saw fight and heart with Illinois, one thing Tim Beckman has been all about since he started.

Illinois wrapped up their Big Ten season with a nice but ugly road win at Purdue (a win's a win, who cares how it looks right?), and a bad loss at home where the Illini led and could not hold on. And while a bowl game was out of the question several weeks ago, there's reason to say the future of the Illini football program is bright.

The Illini got off to a fast start this season and there was a lot more energy and optimism behind the team. Then they fall on hard times in their first three Big Ten games. Give this team, and coaching staff credit for keeping spirits high and the distractions from the outside at a minimum. I truly believe Beckman has a lot to do with this.

Like I said, the talent level isn't there, but it's coming. I feel like I'm as high on the future of the Illinois football program as anyone I've come across. And I'm not an eternal optimist, so I feel my enthusiasm is real.

The future.

To be honest, I'm glad QB Nathan Scheelhaase is out after this year. It's not that I think he's a terrible QB, because he's not. But if he was to come back next year, you'd have a very muddy QB situation. But now, while it's murky, it's not completely impossible for Beckman to make a decision. You'll already have the return of senior Reilly O'Toole, a young Chicago-native and highly touted QB Aaron Bailey, but I think Tim Beckman's decision is going to be easy, and it comes from a central Illinois native from a powerhouse football school in suburban Springfield.



Wes Lunt.

I've been high on this kid out of high school in Rochester, who transferred in this past summer from Oklahoma State after his time in Stillwater was more of a hurricane than still-water. The kid is a winner and obviously has talent, as he was the first true freshman to start at QB for the Cowboys in almost 20 years. Beckman in the past has dubbed Lunt the best scout team QB in the country. Lunt had to sit out this year because of NCAA transfer rules, thus the 'scout team' status.

On top of a promising QB situation, no matter how it plays out, the Illini should have a plethora of options for those QBs to throw to.

Playmaker Josh Ferguson, who accumulated over 1300 all purpose yards this season, returns for his junior season. RB Donovonn Young is likely to return for his senior season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a Rashard Mendenhall or Mikel Leshoure type year that pole vault's him into a second or third round NFL pick.

Along with the quality backs the Illini should boast, the receiving core is going to greatly improve. While Illinois is losing their three top receivers, there are a pair of guys coming in out of Junior Colleges that I think are going to excite Illini fans next year.

The highest touted among them is Tyrin Stone-Davis. Stone-Davis is a 6-3, 195 pound receiver, where some recruiting sites have him as an elite JuCo player, others don't necessarily see the same. The one website I've become very fond of, 247sports.com, has him as a top 25 JuCo recruit, where as Rivals.com and ESPN.com have him farther down. In watching some of his film, he's a very impressive looking wideout. He has a lot of speed to go along with that big frame, and has incredibly good hands. The speed has allowed to him take advantage of the underwhelming amount of corner talent at the JuCo level, but none the less, he is going to allow the Illini offense to stretch the field with downhill, downfield routes and big play ability.

The other wideout is a lesser touted, but none the less, still an impressive overall athlete: Geronimo Allison. Allison is a lanky and long 6-3, 180 pound receiver. Watching video of Allison, you would think a guy like him would be a Stone-Davis mold, using his speed and length to stretch the field for the offense. While he can, one thing I notice is he's a very good route-runner. He goes over the middle of the field in the teeth of the secondary without fear. He has great awareness when making plays along the sidelines, and is a terrific blocker. I look for him to be a solid slot man in the spread offense Bill Cubit has introduced at Illinois with the ability to play outside the numbers. Most websites have him down in the 50-60 range of JuCo recruiting ranks, but ESPN actually has him ahead of Stone-Davis. (Anyone who knows me, knows I do not think much of ESPN, so this means nothing to me)

Junior college transfers are very good way to quickly fill positions while you wait recruit a high level player or develop a younger player. Since the Cam Newton (a JuCo transfer) led Auburn Tigers won a national championship, junior college recruiting has really taken off. One of the nation's top college quarterback's Zach Mettenberger was a transfer out of a community college, along with Auburn QB Nick Marshall. Both were highly recruited players by Georgia, and were kicked off the team for off-field incidents. Interesting fact, Aaron Rodgers wasn't even recruited by a single Division I school out of high school except Illinois, who offered him a chance to earn a scholarship as a walk-on, to which Rodger balked. He decided to walk on in junior college, and was later offered a scholarship by Cal, and of course, the rest, as they say, is history. So there is proven value in recruiting junior college kids.

I mentioned the coming Illini QB controversy that Beckman will likely field questions about all winter, through the spring and into the fall. I've seen Reilly O'Toole and Wes Lunt play live. I've not seen much of Aaron Bailey, but his accolades and hype make me think he is the real deal. My thought on why Lunt wins out the QB controversy is quite simple.

Illinois is not an option driven offense, which is where Bailey would thrive. Making decisions at the line of scrimmage and making plays with his legs. His arm is said to be solid, but that remains to be seen as he's seen little time on the field for the Orange and Blue thus far.

O'Toole is a very good QB, there's no doubt about it. I must admit, the one game I saw him live, I was impressed, but not blown away. He throws an accurate, yet not very strong ball down the field.

Wes Lunt however, fits perfectly, like a glove really, into the Cubit spread offense. He can make accurate, deep throws. He can thread-the-needle in the middle of the field. He can make sideline throws. And guess what he'll have at his disposal if he's named the starter? All the types of talented receivers that fit into his style of play.

Lunt is not a burner though. He's not going to make big plays with his legs. But he'll make just about any throw you ask him to. In a spread offense, that's what you want.

I know Bailey is dubbed by a lot as the QB of the future, but truthfully, it would not surprise me if he's asked to learn to be a receiver, or even a safety/LB hybrid in the next year or two. He's definitely big enough, strong enough, and enough of an athlete to make the switch and pick things up in a short amount of time.

Lunt and Bailey starting next year, will each have three years of time left at Illinois. I understand Beckman will be/is on the hot seat, but he would be foolish not to make the QB one of his two talented sophomores.

One of these guys will be the next great Illini QB, I truthfully think Illinois should make it Lunt and move Bailey to a skill position or defense. Both are winners, winning state championships with their respective schools, and you can bet both are not going to lose the QB battle without a fight.


No matter how it plays it, fireworks should be aplenty in Champaign over the next few years as we wait to see if Tim Beckman can indeed be the man to turn this program into a winner.

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