Seth's Spiel: Winter Meetings Day 1 Reaction

I love the winter meetings.

There is likely more activity in the three or four days of the meetings than the rest of the entire winter. Granted, a lot of the big contracts will probably signed closer to Christmas, or soon thereafter, but the groundwork for those deals is usually laid this time of year and then a lot of trades go down as a byproduct of a lot of those talks.

It’s almost your appetizer to Spring Training.

So without much further ado, I want to react to day 1 (yes, I know I’m very late).

My day 1 highlights:

Wade Miley to Seattle for RP Carson Smith and LHP Roenis Elias.

This deal caught my eye.

The ballpark in Seattle is huge. It’s a hitters nightmare and a pitchers paradise. Miley struggled mightily in Boston this last year. (He wasn’t the only one of course)

But in previous years in Arizona, Miley was a solid pitcher, throwing to a 3.79 ERA but a 4+ ERA last year in Boston.

I think Miley bounces back in Seattle.

For the Red Sox, they continue to bolster their bullpen by adding Smith who had a terrific year in Seattle. He’ll likely set up the recently acquired Craig Kimbrel.

But I’m not sure what to think on Roenis Elias. I really like this guy.

Cuban lefty with filthy stuff. My issue is Elias has always had a notoriously high WHIP and BABIP. (Career 1.30 WHIP, .290 BABIP). Part of my fondness with him was also the fact he played in a very hitter friendly ballpark. But then I went back and looked, Elias actually had a better ERA away from SafeCo than he did there.

That surprised me and made me wonder if perhaps he can succeed in Boston but in a league full of hitters parks (Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium and Fenway), I do have my doubts.

The upside for Elias is he can strike out a ton of guys. He struggles with control but when he’s on, he is unhittable.

I’ll wait and see before I say I don’t like him in Boston.

A couple left-handed we had thought were on the move yesterday ultimately didn’t go anywhere. It’s obvious the off-field troubles recently for Aroldis Chapman are holding back his trade value.

I thought early in the day, we were going to see Scott Kazmir sign in Kansas City. From everything I’ve seen so far, there is a ton of interest in him. I like Kazmir but I think the ballpark he will ultimately throw in is what is going to make him valuable for me. I think he needs a hitters park where he can get guys to put the ball in play. He’s becoming less and less of a strikeout pitcher and is going to have rely on guys putting the ball in play.

Alright, I have to address Jason Heyward.

I’ve watched Jason Heyward from the day he came to the big leagues with hype equal to probably Mike Trout. I don’t think that is a stretch. People loved this guy.

And after one season in St. Louis, the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase is ready to pay this man like he’s Trout or Bryce Harper.

Friends, I don’t mince words when I talk about Jason Heyward; the man is overrated.

I can admit he was one of the better outfielders in baseball this past year. He was. There’s no question.

But here’s the thing folks: It was a walk year for him. He was playing for the next contract.

How many guys have we seen in that scenario with a huge walk year? The names are endless. Carlos Beltran. Jayson Werth. Johnny Damon. Jason Bay. Matt Holliday.  Just to name a few.

Guys get paid after they have a big year. And that’s fine. That’s what they are supposed to do: cash in.

But let’s not act like Jason Heyward has turned the corner, because quite honestly, that line is worn out on this baseball guy.

I’ve seen Heyward have months that he looks like an MVP and I’ve thought to myself, “my God, if this guy does this until September, he’s the unanimous MVP”.

But he NEVER has!

His splits month to month every year are drastic.

I put out yesterday Heyward’s OPS year to year and it totally epitomizes what the man is all about: Inconsistency.

Jason Heyward OPS year to year: 2010 - .849 2011 - .708 2012 - .814 2013 - .776 2014 - .735 2015 - .797 Guys, the dood is INCONSISTENT!

— Seth (@Seth_SportsTalk) December 7, 2015

But let’s not make OPS to be the ultimate definition of his success. What does Jason Heyward do well?

He doesn’t strike out. I don’t think any team will says they don’t like that about him.

His glove is tremendous. As evidenced by his three Gold Gloves. Again, no team is going to say they don’t like that about him.

He runs the bases incredibly well.

One statistic I have recently come across I really like is weighted runs created, or wRC.

I feel like wRC is a great way of quantifying how a player impacts the game beyond their traditional stat line. And when it comes down to it, Jason Heyward just isn’t elite.

Last year, in one of his best years as a pro, he wasn’t even top 25, in fact he was 39th.

Cardinals fans want to argue, well maybe he’s turned the corner. Well it’s because he plays in St. Louis.

I never argue with the metaphysical philosophy that because a guy plays in St. Louis, his level of play will automatically rise.

Until now.

It just won’t happen with Jason Heyward.

My personal belief is: if the Cardinals are the team to give this guy the $150-million he is seeking, this fan base will be tired of him by year two. They’ll forgive a down year off the big contract, but by June or July, of 2017, you’ll see what I’m talking about.

I know where I stand with Heyward. I’ve watched him. Being a Mets fan, you know I’ve watched him. I’ve tracked him. I’m not surprised he surpassed his career averages in almost every statistical category after a year in St. Louis. It was as predictable as the sun rising.

But again, to me, he’s a product of being in a walk year. Not a new environment.

I think, wherever he ends up, we see Heyward regress to the Heyward of old, and not the one-year Cardinal-wonder Heyward.

This has nothing to do with the Winter Meetings, just some baseball tidbits I put out yesterday.

• In 2015, Noah Syndergaard became the second rookie pitcher in MLB history with at least 160 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks in a season.
• So basically the kid throws 100 MPH will pinpoint control. When he figures out how to limit his H/9 (better pitch selection/getting ahead in the count more consistently) it's all over.
• Jacob deGrom's 2015 FIP went up from 2.67 in '14 to a whopping 2.70 in '15. Simply put: young blood is going to be here for a long time.