Player mistreatment lawsuits, a drunk player punching out car windows overseas, a fired a head football coach, “hidden” emails from private accounts exposed, the Chancellor and Provost resigning; that’s just the laundry list of problems at the University of Illinois since May.
It seems the controversies in Champaign never end. The latest scandal? Tim Beckman fired a mere seven days before the opening kickoff to the 2015-16 season over mistreatment allegations and now the former head coach is threatening a lawsuit.
While things surrounding the University don’t look good at almost any level, all of that gets put on hold Friday night at Memorial Stadium as the Illini host Kent State in the 2015-16 football season.
A lot has been made of what does Beckman’s firing mean for Illinois this season? To me it means one thing - very little.
Listen, none of the coaches are going to drastically change schemes this close to the opening kick Friday. Tthat would be, in a word - senseless. Will strategies and gameplans change? They likely will but I don’t think all that much changes as we head to Friday night’s opener.
I was optimistic before the news of Beckman’s dismissal last Friday afternoon. I was set to spend a portion of the weekend writing about this season but then I had to reevaluate where I was at with my expectations for this year.
Ultimately I decided I wasn’t going to change what I thought of this year. Most people would say things look better, some would say this big of a change would be bad. I don’t disagree with either. As I stated above, I don’t see any of the coaches making huge changes for the sake of continuity and routine, but additionally, it just doesn’t make sense to make big changes this close to the season’s open.
So here’s where I’m at. Illinois will be a Bowl eligible team in 2015.
To me the wild cards include health of the QB, the quality of the depth of the defensive front, and how much the secondary improves.
THE OFFENSE
I will be honest, I have little concerns about this year’s offense.
Wes Lunt is the starting QB with no one lurking to take his job. There’s depth at receiver, running back, and on the offensive line.
Even through all the injuries, I think people are flat out ignoring what Tim Beckman and his staff did on the recruiting trail this past winter and spring.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn was a 4-star recruit that surprised a lot of people when he inked his letter of intent on signing day and is drawing great reviews from people who watch practice and his coaches.
Henry Enyenihi was an underrated JuCo recruit out of California that really showed a lot in the spring game in April.
Between the two, I think the Illini run game is in good shape backing up Josh Ferguson, who's explosiveness is not unnoticed. I think Illinois will have a very respectable run game.
Up front, the Illini finally have depth, and quality depth at that. Ted Karris could be a 2nd or 3rd round NFL prospect. Joe Spencer at center is another guy that is drawing looks from NFL scouts. Additionally, Chris Boles and Austin Schmidt offer a good deal of experience on the front line.
Pat Flavin will be rotated in frequently and freshman Gabe Megginson might be the Illini’s biggest “get” on the recruiting trail.
On the receiver front, Mike Dudek’s absence from the first few games will undoubtedly be missed, but let’s not act like Illinois has zero other options.
I love Geronimo Allison out of JuCo last year and he had a big time year, mostly in the first three-quarters of the season racking up a total of almost 600 yards and five TDs. Between Allison and Dudek, they made Illinois an exciting big play offense.
Don’t sleep on a couple guys this year.
Malik Turner was very solid in the first third of the season, and flamed out because of injury as the season wore on. If he can stay healthy, Turner showed the ability to be a short route receiver that now Head Coach and former offensive coordinator Bill Cubit likes in crossing routes and short out-routes.
I’m also holding out hope my guy Tyrin Stone-Davis can be a big contributor. A good sized and speedy receiver, I think him and Allison have mirror-like talents.
I also am excited to see what freshman duo Desmond Cain and Sammie Mays can do. Coaches raved about their performances during fall camp and I think they give Lunt added options in the passing game.
THE DEFENSE
I think the defensive should be a very improved unit.
There’s no dancing around it, the Illinois defense mthe past three years has been beyond nauseating to watch. Zero pass rush to the inability to stop a short yardage situation but the inability of corners to cover receivers was perhaps the biggest failure of the Illinois defense in years past.
I think two of those things improve this year.
I think the pass rush improves and the ability of the Illini to stop in short yardage situation. I’ll admit, I’m optimistic the Illinois cornerbacks take big steps forward this year as well.
Here’s why.
Illinois had zero pass rush last year. Zero.
Jihad Ward was probably the only Illinois defensive lineman that could consistently get to the QB. But this year I’m looking for a big year out of Jr. LEO Carroll Phillips (#6 left). Time and time again I was begging, imploring seemingly incompetent defensive coordinator Tim Banks to get Phillips on the field because it seemed any time he played, something good happened.
In his second full year out of the junior college ranks, Phillips has impressed so far this year in camp and preseason practice. I’ve tweeted before, and I’m sure it won’t be the last, I think Carroll Phillips is in for a big time breakout year.
The Illinois D-Line is going to be hurting for depth. Joe Fotu was suspended just before Beckman was dismissed. Also a big loss on the front four is Teko Powell.
The interior of the Illinois line is going to be hurting with the loss of those two. Highly touted freshman Jamal Milan is likely going to be thrown into a larger role. As is redshirt-freshman Tito Odenigbo.
Illinois up front is very experienced. Dawuane Smoot leads the experience up front for the Illini but look for good things out of Jarrod Clements in ‘15.
Additionally, the Illinois linebacking core looks very strong. A 4-year starter, Mason Monheim could be an All Big Ten linebacker. Additionally, TJ Neal had a great year as a sophomore and I would expect him to build on that as a junior.
A name to keep an eye on is LaKeith Walls. Coaches have taken notice of his performance, but so have players. I’ve heard him mentioned a couple times in player interviews.
In the secondary, Illinois has always been a relatively young group. Taylor Barton, Clay Fejedelem, and Darius Mosely have been underclassmen in a starting role. Now they are paired with V’Angelo Bentley and Eaton Spence to provide Illinois with a lot of experience in the secondary.
It cannot be ignored, the group has been really bad the past few years but here is why I think the Illini secondary is poised to take a giant step forward this year.
The pass rush the past few years has been terrible. Illinois could bring the house and each and every rusher would have been picked up, which would result in leaving the secondary being forced to cover their receivers much longer than anyone could realistically ask for.
But between more experience among the linebackers, better coach thanks to the addition of co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach Mike Phair (whom players are raving about) and more quality depth up front, Illinois will do a much better job of getting after QB and actually bringing him down.
Thus resulting in a better secondary.
MY PREDICTION
As for the Illinois schedule, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Illinois starts the season 4-0. Yes, winning at North Carolina.
The Big Ten slate however, is not going to be kind to Illinois. Iowa, Penn State and Minnesota look to be vastly improved and Northwestern is never an easy game for Illinois.
Pencil in the loss to Ohio State but I think the rest of it is winnable. Note I said winnable, not 'they WILL win'.
Illinois plays Nebraska and Wisconsin at home. I think they get one of those (the eternal optimistic and biased part of me says they can get both).
If Illinois loses to Purdue for a second straight year I might jump off a bridge.
I think Illinois loses at Penn State and don’t sleep on Minnesota this year. Their “power ranking” everywhere isn’t good but I think they’ll surprise some people and make a push for the Big Ten East title. I’m gonna say Illinois goes to Minnesota and loses.
Illinois should beat Northwestern this year.
So where does that put Illinois?
If you’ve kept track, I’ve got Illinois 7-5. I predicted Illinois for 6-8 wins last year and they go that. At best I think Illinois is an 8-win team but more realistically, 6 or 7 is more likely.
Nonetheless, Illinois has the talent to make a bowl game in 2015-16 and hopefully start to lift the spirits of the ever, always miserable Illinois fan.
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