I know the Cardinals hoped for more from Adam Wainwright in Game 1, but Jon Lester is a very good pitcher. Losing to him is nothing to be upset about. After Lester, I think the rotation really drops off for Boston.
Starting pitching was going to be the key for St. Louis to win their second Championship in three years, and fourth in ten years. But here's the thing, while Adam Wainwright was not very effective Wednesday, the Cardinals absolutely have the edge in the pitching department going forward. A lot is made of the Koji Uehara at the back end of the bullpen for Boston. But if one of their starters doesn't go deep in the game, the Red Sox may struggle because of the lack of quality depth in their bullpen.
While if a Cardinals starter struggles, they have several live, but also reliable arms to turn to. What I like about the Cardinals going forward is Michael Wacha has pitched incredibly well this October. John Lackey has really only had one good start this postseason when he outdueled Justin Verlander in a crucial game 3 victory for Boston.
When you get into the 2-3-2 format of the postseason, the road team taking one game in the first two games is incredibly crucial. The thing I worry about with Michael Wacha tonight being overwhelmed by the atmosphere at Fenway. While homefield advantage in baseball is almost minimal, there's a very select few places where it has an impact and Fenway Park is one of those places. It's a very small ballpark with the crowd on top of you all over the park. It's one of the unique atmosphere's in all of baseball.
But I think the advantage he has is seeing what happened last night, and I think his mentor, Adam Wainwright will give him plenty of things to do through the day leading up to the start in hopes of not getting overwhelmed.
I like Michael Wacha to come out tonight and give the Cardinals another stellar start.
However, if he can't, it's not over and here's why: The Cards head back home.
Homefield advantage in baseball is almost non-existent, but, the Cardinals gain a huge advantage by removing one of the bats of David Ortiz or Mike Napoli because the DH is eliminated. Both killed the Redbirds in game one with huge hits, and to get one of them out of the line up is a tremendous advantage.
While the Red Sox could put Napoli in the outfield, it's unlikely as Napoli is all but a defensive liability anywhere on the field but first base. And no, he is not going to catch. John Ferrell has pretty well established that well before last night's game.
If the Cardinals can steal a game in Boston, I like their chances of heading home and taking two out of three in St. Louis. They will face Jake Peavy Saturday night, and Peavy has not pitched well at all in the postseason. He's one of a number of guys that have waited to play in a World Series, and are now getting a chance, but he's not doing a great job of taking advantage of it.
Clay Buchholz is the likely starter right now for game 4, but he's battled injuries to this point since they clinched a spot in the World Series. I really question if he can overcome that to throw an effective game.
While the Cardinals haven't announced their games 3 or 4 starters at this point, I have to think Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn will get the nod. If that's the case, they've got to be relieved they likely won't face Mike Napoli or David Ortiz.
After we shift the series to St. Louis, we could really see a slugfest of a series, which does not favor the Cardinals, but with power arms in the bullpen, I have to think Kelly and likely Lynn will be on short leashes.
I've thought all along the Cardinals depth in their rotation and bullpen were the X-factor for them. They don't have a lot of bench depth, which really showed last night, as after Beltran left the game on what was a tremendous catch.
I said from the beginning the Cardinals will win the World Series, and I've learned to never count them out. I'm still going with the Cardinals.
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