It's amazing how you don't know what
you have until it's gone.
Two years ago, the Illinois football
program started their season with big wins over Arizona State, the
Pac-12's preseason dark horse, and a high powered Western Michigan
offense. After the 6-0 start came the surprising 0-6 finish that
ultimately led to the demise of Ron Zook.
While the 0-6 finish shocked Illini
nation and the Big Ten. After Illinois trounced a pretty awful
Indiana team, the Illini proceeded to lose three expected games to
Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan. The shocking loss was Purdue,
who was actually quite strong despite their poor football reputation.
A loss at home against Wisconsin wasn't
anything unexpected but then there was another shocking loss to
Minnesota, a game Illinois should have won but pretty much didn't
show up.
When you look closer at that season,
Illinois was incredibly reliant on four guys, two of which were
pretty big playmakers and ended up being first round picks in the
following year's NFL Draft. Defensive end Whitney Mercilus and
wideout AJ Jenkins were the primary playmakers that season and
Jenkins was sophomore QB Nathan Scheelhaase's favorite target. Once
Illinois beat Arizona State and jumped into the top 25, everybody saw
if you take away Jenkins and make those mediocre backs and two and
three option receivers beat you, the Illini weren't going to have
much success. And obviously they didn't.
Whitney Mercilus tore the country apart
the first six games of the season, then they got into the grueling
Big Ten season and he didn't fare as well. He played well enough
though, Houston liked him and took him late in the first round in
that following spring in the NFL draft.
Illinois had two first round picks on
that team, and two second round picks. Two offensive lineman, a
defensive lineman and their top receiver.
After the 0-6 finish, Ron Zook of
course met his fate at Illinois and was ushered out. Looking back,
even though Zook was run out of town, he really had quite a tenure at
Illinois as far as recruiting and developing terrific, young players.
He just could not turn it into postseason games.
A new era.
Enter Tim Beckman. Expectations are now
[once again] high because of a new Athletic Director who brings a lot
of hype, promise and a new way of doing business. Expectations are
high because a team full of talent underachieved the previous season.
But rightfully so, there were people
who said, who is Tim Beckman? Oh-- he's had one stint as a head coach
and had one winning season -- in the MAC no less. Needless to say,
there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm surrounding his hire.
Beckman hadn't even blown his whistle
to start his first practice and the deck was already stacked against
him.
How's so?
For starters, do I need to mention the
four top 60 picks they lost to the NFL draft?
So he's already down four studs on a
team with almost no skill position talent. Literally no running
backs. Donovan Young was the only runningback on the roster that had
carried the ball in a college football game before. He relied on a
handful of true freshman and a couple redshirt freshman.
He's already walked into a quaterback
controversy because he had the two year starter Nathan Scheelhaase
and promising pocket passer Reilly O'Toole. That didn't make things
better. His offensive and defensive lines have little size on top of
everything else.
It just wasn't going to happen for him.
Not one coach in the country would have come in and made Illinois any
sort of contender in the Big Ten with that team. Not one. Not Urban
Meyer, not Nick Saban, not Les Miles, not Chip Kelly, not Brian
Kelly. Not one.
Illinois goes 2-10 under Beckman the
first year and doesn't win a Big Ten game. Not really surprising. At
least to me. The Illini fan that put too high of an expectation on
this man was calling for his head. I know a lot of people don't like
Mike Thomas, but I respect his decision to give Beckman a second
year. After all, when you sit back and look at it objectively,
Illinois wasn't in a position to win at all.
Then Beckman loses more key players.
Offensive lineman Hugh Thornton was a second round pick to the Colts.
Akeem Spence gets lost to the Bucs in the fourth round of the
spring's NFL draft. Michael Buchannon was a 7th round pick to the
Pats. Illinois was already very shorthanded, and it got worse in year
two for Beckman.
But then this fall, with expectations
already low, you start to see some things you can build on. After an
injury plagued season and battling two differing styles of
co-offensive coordinators, Nathan Scheelhaase is finally looking like
he could be a relevant Big Ten QB with stability in the play calling.
The run game is getting going thanks to the effective air game.
They escape a scare from Southern
Illinois. They handled Cincinnati, who has been a dark horse in the
American Athletic Conference, and are now sitting at 8-2 on the
season and in the driver's seat to challenge Louisville and Central
Florida. They played tough with the Washington Huskies, who were an
early season surprise in the Pac-12, at a neutral site in Chicago. If
we're being honest, I don't think anyone gave Illinois a chance in
that game, but they played tough all day and made it a game late. The
Illini lost, and it would be the only loss of their non-conference
slate.
But once again, the Big Ten season
rolled in and the Illini fell on hard times. Three tough losses to
Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State really did not sit well with
Illini nation after a better than expected start.
Then they go to Happy Valley to take on
a very surprising Penn State Nittany Lions group that was
overachieving with almost nothing to look forward to. The Illini
start slow, make a game of it in the second half, and unfortunately
fall on an interception that could have set up a tie.
Then Illinois plays a back and forth
contest in Bloomington, Indiana but late mistakes cost them.
They host Ohio State who are ridiculous
favorites, and for good reason. But Illinois showed heart, if nothing
else, and made Ohio State earn the victory. Late mistakes did in
Illinois, but all Ohio State fans I've heard from say they saw fight
and heart with Illinois, one thing Tim Beckman has been all about
since he started.
Illinois wrapped up their Big Ten
season with a nice but ugly road win at Purdue (a win's a win, who
cares how it looks right?), and a bad loss at home where the Illini
led and could not hold on. And while a bowl game was out of the
question several weeks ago, there's reason to say the future of the
Illini football program is bright.
The Illini got off to a fast start this
season and there was a lot more energy and optimism behind the team.
Then they fall on hard times in their first three Big Ten games. Give
this team, and coaching staff credit for keeping spirits high and the
distractions from the outside at a minimum. I truly believe Beckman
has a lot to do with this.
Like I said, the talent level isn't
there, but it's coming. I feel like I'm as high on the future of the
Illinois football program as anyone I've come across. And I'm not an
eternal optimist, so I feel my enthusiasm is real.
The future.
To be honest, I'm glad QB Nathan
Scheelhaase is out after this year. It's not that I think he's a
terrible QB, because he's not. But if he was to come back next year,
you'd have a very muddy QB situation. But now, while it's murky, it's
not completely impossible for Beckman to make a decision. You'll
already have the return of senior Reilly O'Toole, a young
Chicago-native and highly touted QB Aaron Bailey, but I think Tim
Beckman's decision is going to be easy, and it comes from a central
Illinois native from a powerhouse football school in suburban
Springfield.
Wes Lunt.
I've been high on this kid out of high
school in Rochester, who transferred in this past summer from
Oklahoma State after his time in Stillwater was more of a hurricane
than still-water. The kid is a winner and obviously has talent, as he
was the first true freshman to start at QB for the Cowboys in almost
20 years. Beckman in the past has dubbed Lunt the best scout team QB
in the country. Lunt had to sit out this year because of NCAA
transfer rules, thus the 'scout team' status.
On top of a promising QB situation, no
matter how it plays out, the Illini should have a plethora of options
for those QBs to throw to.
Playmaker Josh Ferguson, who
accumulated over 1300 all purpose yards this season, returns for his
junior season. RB Donovonn Young is likely to return for his senior
season, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a Rashard Mendenhall or
Mikel Leshoure type year that pole vault's him into a second or third
round NFL pick.
Along with the quality backs the Illini
should boast, the receiving core is going to greatly improve. While
Illinois is losing their three top receivers, there are a pair of
guys coming in out of Junior Colleges that I think are going to
excite Illini fans next year.
The highest touted among them is Tyrin
Stone-Davis. Stone-Davis is a 6-3, 195 pound receiver, where some
recruiting sites have him as an elite JuCo player, others don't
necessarily see the same. The one website I've become very fond of,
247sports.com, has him as a top 25 JuCo recruit, where as Rivals.com
and ESPN.com have him farther down. In watching some of his film,
he's a very impressive looking wideout. He has a lot of speed to go
along with that big frame, and has incredibly good hands. The speed
has allowed to him take advantage of the underwhelming amount of
corner talent at the JuCo level, but none the less, he is going to
allow the Illini offense to stretch the field with downhill,
downfield routes and big play ability.
The other wideout is a lesser touted,
but none the less, still an impressive overall athlete: Geronimo
Allison. Allison is a lanky and long 6-3, 180 pound receiver.
Watching video of Allison, you would think a guy like him would be a
Stone-Davis mold, using his speed and length to stretch the field for
the offense. While he can, one thing I notice is he's a very good
route-runner. He goes over the middle of the field in the teeth of
the secondary without fear. He has great awareness when making plays
along the sidelines, and is a terrific blocker. I look for him to be
a solid slot man in the spread offense Bill Cubit has introduced at
Illinois with the ability to play outside the numbers. Most websites
have him down in the 50-60 range of JuCo recruiting ranks, but ESPN
actually has him ahead of Stone-Davis. (Anyone who knows me, knows I
do not think much of ESPN, so this means nothing to me)
Junior college transfers are very good
way to quickly fill positions while you wait recruit a high level
player or develop a younger player. Since the Cam Newton (a JuCo
transfer) led Auburn Tigers won a national championship, junior
college recruiting has really taken off. One of the nation's top
college quarterback's Zach Mettenberger was a transfer out of a
community college, along with Auburn QB Nick Marshall. Both were
highly recruited players by Georgia, and were kicked off the team for
off-field incidents. Interesting fact, Aaron Rodgers wasn't even
recruited by a single Division I school out of high school except
Illinois, who offered him a chance to earn a scholarship as a
walk-on, to which Rodger balked. He decided to walk on in junior
college, and was later offered a scholarship by Cal, and of course,
the rest, as they say, is history. So there is proven value in
recruiting junior college kids.
I mentioned the coming Illini QB
controversy that Beckman will likely field questions about all
winter, through the spring and into the fall. I've seen Reilly
O'Toole and Wes Lunt play live. I've not seen much of Aaron Bailey,
but his accolades and hype make me think he is the real deal. My
thought on why Lunt wins out the QB controversy is quite simple.
Illinois is not an option driven
offense, which is where Bailey would thrive. Making decisions at the
line of scrimmage and making plays with his legs. His arm is said to
be solid, but that remains to be seen as he's seen little time on the
field for the Orange and Blue thus far.
O'Toole is a very good QB, there's no
doubt about it. I must admit, the one game I saw him live, I was
impressed, but not blown away. He throws an accurate, yet not very
strong ball down the field.
Wes Lunt however, fits perfectly, like
a glove really, into the Cubit spread offense. He can make accurate,
deep throws. He can thread-the-needle in the middle of the field. He
can make sideline throws. And guess what he'll have at his disposal
if he's named the starter? All the types of talented receivers that
fit into his style of play.
Lunt is not a burner though. He's not
going to make big plays with his legs. But he'll make just about any
throw you ask him to. In a spread offense, that's what you want.
I know Bailey is dubbed by a lot as the
QB of the future, but truthfully, it would not surprise me if he's
asked to learn to be a receiver, or even a safety/LB hybrid in the
next year or two. He's definitely big enough, strong enough, and
enough of an athlete to make the switch and pick things up in a short
amount of time.
Lunt and Bailey starting next year,
will each have three years of time left at Illinois. I understand
Beckman will be/is on the hot seat, but he would be foolish not to
make the QB one of his two talented sophomores.
One of these guys will be the next
great Illini QB, I truthfully think Illinois should make it Lunt and
move Bailey to a skill position or defense. Both are winners, winning
state championships with their respective schools, and you can bet
both are not going to lose the QB battle without a fight.
No matter how it plays it, fireworks
should be aplenty in Champaign over the next few years as we wait to
see if Tim Beckman can indeed be the man to turn this program into a
winner.
